Drinax Campaign Treasure Ship (Spoilers)

[J. L. Brown]

So apparently the canon J-3 Florian route is:
Fist (B) -2- Wildeman (B) [or Iiligan (B)] -3- Acrid (A) [correction: Arunisiir (B)] -2- Blue (B) -2- Torpol (B) -2- Oghma (B) -2- Thebus (B) -3- Acis (B) -2- Tyr (A) -3- Janus (C) -2- 291-540 (E) -2- Yggdrasil (B).
I suppose the J-2 route is:
Fist (B) -2- Wildeman (B) [or Iiligan (B)] -2- Cordan (A) -2- Arunisiir (B) -2- Blue (B) -2- Torpol (B) -2- Oghma (B) -2- Thebus (B) -1- Number One (C) -2- Acis (B) -2- Tyr (A) -2- Caldos (B) -1- Janus (C) -2- 291-540 (E) -2- Yggdrasil (B).

The J-3 route costs ~8970 Cr/dTon (market value 20600)
The J-2 route costs ~10852 Cr/dTon (market value 21200)

I am mystified why J-3 freighters would take such a sub-optimal route.
Fist (B) -2- Wildeman (B) -3- Arunisiir (B) -3- Clarke (B) -3- Oghma (B) -3- Number One (C) -3- Tyr (A) -3- Janus (C) -3- Dpres (B) -3- Ilnest (B) [or Boronu (B)]
which costs 7877 Cr/dTon (market value of 22400; but they can afford to undercut J-2 or J-3 freighters using either of the above routes), and it cuts out the travel times of two jumps. Or even:
Fist (B) -2- Wildeman (B) -3- Exocet (A) -3- Torpol (B) -2- Oghma (B) -3- Number One (C) -3- Tyr (A) -3- Janus (C) -3- Dpres (B) -3- Ilnest (B) [or Boronu (B)]
Which is even cheaper at ~7780 Cr/dTon; and an expected market value of 21400 Cr/dTon.

My other proposed route:
Nekrino (B) -2- Chalchiutlicue (B) -2- Vume (B) -3- Salif (A) -3- Tyr (A) -3- Janus (C) -3- Dpres (B) -3 [or 2]- Boronu (B) [or Ilnest (B), or Forandin (B)]
Costs just 6008 Cr/dTon (market value of 16200), and (at 4 weeks faster) absolutely flattens all the competition.

Still, it is interesting that the Hierate routes attract five times the traffic of the Florian routes.

A Galoof on the J-3 Hierate run costs ~4136 Cr/dTon; with a market rate of 10 kCr/dton. On the J-2 Hierate route it comes to ~5523 Cr/dTon; with a 'market rate' of 11200 Cr/dTon. Doubling the expected market rate for delivering a dTon cuts demand by 80%.

 

[MasterGwydion]

So apparently the canon J-3 Florian route is:
Fist (B) -2- Wildeman (B) [or Iiligan (B)] -3- Acrid (A) [correction: Arunisiir (B)] -2- Blue (B) -2- Torpol (B) -2- Oghma (B) -2- Thebus (B) -3- Acis (B) -2- Tyr (A) -3- Janus (C) -2- 291-540 (E) -2- Yggdrasil (B).
I suppose the J-2 route is:
Fist (B) -2- Wildeman (B) [or Iiligan (B)] -2- Cordan (A) -2- Arunisiir (B) -2- Blue (B) -2- Torpol (B) -2- Oghma (B) -2- Thebus (B) -1- Number One (C) -2- Acis (B) -2- Tyr (A) -2- Caldos (B) -1- Janus (C) -2- 291-540 (E) -2- Yggdrasil (B).

The J-3 route costs ~8970 Cr/dTon (market value 20600)
The J-2 route costs ~10852 Cr/dTon (market value 21200)

I am mystified why J-3 freighters would take such a sub-optimal route.
Fist (B) -2- Wildeman (B) -3- Arunisiir (B) -3- Clarke (B) -3- Oghma (B) -3- Number One (C) -3- Tyr (A) -3- Janus (C) -3- Dpres (B) -3- Ilnest (B) [or Boronu (B)]
which costs 7877 Cr/dTon (market value of 22400; but they can afford to undercut J-2 or J-3 freighters using either of the above routes), and it cuts out the travel times of two jumps. Or even:
Fist (B) -2- Wildeman (B) -3- Exocet (A) -3- Torpol (B) -2- Oghma (B) -3- Number One (C) -3- Tyr (A) -3- Janus (C) -3- Dpres (B) -3- Ilnest (B) [or Boronu (B)]
Which is even cheaper at ~7780 Cr/dTon; and an expected market value of 21400 Cr/dTon.

My other proposed route:
Nekrino (B) -2- Chalchiutlicue (B) -2- Vume (B) -3- Salif (A) -3- Tyr (A) -3- Janus (C) -3- Dpres (B) -3 [or 2]- Boronu (B) [or Ilnest (B), or Forandin (B)]
Costs just 6008 Cr/dTon (market value of 16200), and (at 4 weeks faster) absolutely flattens all the competition.

Still, it is interesting that the Hierate routes attract five times the traffic of the Florian routes.

A Galoof on the J-3 Hierate run costs ~4136 Cr/dTon; with a market rate of 10 kCr/dton. On the J-2 Hierate route it comes to ~5523 Cr/dTon; with a 'market rate' of 11200 Cr/dTon. Doubling the expected market rate for delivering a dTon cuts demand by 80%.

I am guessing that is it due to the volume of goods more than anything else. Lots more Aslan than Florians.

 

[J. L. Brown]

"The Florian League imports radioactives, computers and electronics, biochemicals, spices and medical supplies;
they export advanced manufactured goods, advanced vehicles, advanced weapons and other manufactured goods."

The 'Imports' are mostly good; adding 21200 Cr/dTon to the usual market prices represents
Radioactives -- adding 2.12% Cr/dTon, averaging a '12' on the sale price table on page 243;
Computers and Electronics -- adding 21.2%, averaging a '15' or '16';
Biochemicals -- adding 42.4%, averaging a '18' or '19';
Medical supplies -- adding 42.4%, averaging a '18' or '19';
Spices -- adding 353.3%, averaging a '25+'; this is flatly ridiculous.

I would guess that since the Florians import 'Medical Supplies', they might also import 'Pharmaceuticals'. Maybe not, though.

A fully loaded Galoof brings 177.3 MCr worth of profits from (one way) freight fees on the J-3 route. The average dTon going from the Imperium to the Florians is ~241200 Cr/dTon; which represents 3.678 GCr worth of goods for one Galoof-load. Except that (assuming a trade balance and no feliberately empty cargo space) the flow of goods the other direction is less valuable per dTon, so we should expect maybe less 'radiactives' than other goods to reflect that.

Exports are:
Advanced Manufactured Goods -- adding 21.2%, averaging a '15' or '16';
Advanced Vehicles -- adding 11.8%, averaging a '13' or '14';
Advanced Weapons -- adding 14.1%, averaging a '14';
and 'Other Manufactured Goods' -- which is pretty vague.

'Other Manufactured Goods' might be: Common Manufactured Goods (+106%), Vehicles (+141%), Textiles (+707%), or Polymers (+303%) -- but all of them have really high adds. It might make sense in some alternate universes to declare 'Florians are bad at Broker' to make sense of the 'Imports', but then their exports cannot be profitable. The differences in trade codes (Fist is Ni (Non-Industrial) and Ht (High Technology); while Yggdrasil is De (Desert) and Po (Poor)) cannot account for the die modifiers needed.

The average dTon of goods (neglecting the 'Common Manufactured Goods') flowing from the Florian League to the Imperium is ~143.3 kCr/dTon; or 2.186 GCr per Galoof-load. That means that a normal payload for a Galoof from the Imperium is ~1475 dTons of Radioactives, and ~3443 dTons of each of the other Trade goods; although there is probably some justification in dropping the amount of 'Spices'.

I am just doing quick-and-dirty estimates here; but as a first approximation:

Goods shipped on the Florian route average 143.3 kCr/dTon, but take twice as long to complete the route. A dTon of cargo on the Hierate route averages 50 kCr/dTon; but there is five times as much, twice as frequently, so the Hierate route shipping is worth about 3.49 times as much as trade on the Florian route per unit time. Since there is a minimum of one Galoof-class (about 468 MCr/month) from the Tobia Commerce Guild on the Florian route, there can be expected to be a minimum of five Galoof-equivalents (5 x 327 MCr/month) from the Tobia Commerce Guild on the Hierate route.

The Tobia Commerce Guild ("The Duke's Own" Pirates of Drinax 'Trojan Reach' book p131) makes up 'over a third of the traffic across the Aslan trade route'. They have recently placed an order for four more 50k dTon freighters 'doubling its capacity'; so a capacity of 200k dTons is six Galoofs plus a little, which so far fits the assumptions above. If the TCG splits its' shipping capacity 5:1 between the Aslan & Florian routes, and makes up about 35% to 40% of the shipping on the Aslan route, then expect the major players to amount to 417k to 476k dTons of shipping (between 4538 to 5186 MCr of goods moved per month) on the Hierate route -- and between about 83.4k and 95.2k dTons (1296 and 1499 MCr/month) on the Florian route.

 

[Anstett]

Why pay for a book that is largely a reprint of previous material? Just sell Me a book with the new material.

Because this presumes that someone already has the sunk cost of owning the first book. For a new person picking up a source book buying 1 new edition that has lots of things from a previous book plus more is a better incentive then to buy 1 older version of a book and buy the new update for the book that requires you to have the previous one.

 

[MasterGwydion]

Because this presumes that someone already has the sunk cost of owning the first book. For a new person picking up a source book buying 1 new edition that has lots of things from a previous book plus more is a better incentive then to buy 1 older version of a book and buy the new update for the book that requires you to have the previous one.

Which most of Us do.

 

[Anstett]

Which most of Us do.

I worked at adding in a few dozen new players this summer. Zero of them had any books.

I did not have any 2nd edition books outside of Fantasy Grounds until I bought the WBH when it came out. Of the 8 players in my game only 2 of them owned any books outside of FG before joining.

I will agree that most of the people posting here on the Forums would own a decent library of Traveller books over different editions. When I introduce new players to this game they are often hesitant to invest money until they know they will like it. Having someone buy 1 book is an easier ask than 2.

Bringing back to topic: I had mentioned in the Borderlands Thread that I would like to see a WBH workup for the systems as an additional download to accompany the book to show how the details from there can make a system come alive much more than a simple profile code.

 

[MasterGwydion]

I worked at adding in a few dozen new players this summer. Zero of them had any books.

None of My players did either and they still don't, but that is more due to them speaking Spanish and not being big readers.

I did not have any 2nd edition books outside of Fantasy Grounds until I bought the WBH when it came out. Of the 8 players in my game only 2 of them owned any books outside of FG before joining.

I have electronic copies of stuff from CT through now. By no means exhaustive, but enough that on most things, I can track them back through editions.

I will agree that most of the people posting here on the Forums would own a decent library of Traveller books over different editions. When I introduce new players to this game they are often hesitant to invest money until they know they will like it. Having someone buy 1 book is an easier ask than 2.

New players,if they decide to stick around for a whole campaign, I just tell them to pick up the CRB. They do not need more than that until they decide to become obsessive like the rest of Us...lol...

Bringing back to topic: I had mentioned in the Borderlands Thread that I would like to see a WBH workup for the systems as an additional download to accompany the book to show how the details from there can make a system come alive much more than a simple profile code.

I would love to see this as well. Doubt it will happen, but I would be pleased if it does.

 

[J. L. Brown]

Another point to think about -- Tobia Commerce Guild currently has 200k dTons of ships. If they are all similar in price to the Galoof, then that is 48585 MCr of assets, plus a monthly profit of 42.2 MCr from the Florian route, and 206.1 MCr from the Aslan route. The TCG is making 3.228 GCr/year profit just on freight fees; if they are speculating as well it is probably higher. If the Duke of Tobia owns 1% (probably more, to be honest) of the TCG, and the TCG pays a 1% per year dividend; then the Duke has personal wealth of more than 486 MCr, and is getting more than 4.86 MCr income per year.

Still, the new ships (four, each at 50000 dTons) are a big investment; fifteen years worth of (today's) profits, although the ships themselves can be expected to generate revenue as well.

 

[Vormaerin]

I worked at adding in a few dozen new players this summer. Zero of them had any books.

I did not have any 2nd edition books outside of Fantasy Grounds until I bought the WBH when it came out. Of the 8 players in my game only 2 of them owned any books outside of FG before joining.

I will agree that most of the people posting here on the Forums would own a decent library of Traveller books over different editions. When I introduce new players to this game they are often hesitant to invest money until they know they will like it. Having someone buy 1 book is an easier ask than 2.

Bringing back to topic: I had mentioned in the Borderlands Thread that I would like to see a WBH workup for the systems as an additional download to accompany the book to show how the details from there can make a system come alive much more than a simple profile code.

None of my players have any Traveller books. I do because I've been playing the game for 45 years. But there's a fair chunk of 1e books I haven't gotten.

 

[MasterGwydion]

Another point to think about -- Tobia Commerce Guild currently has 200k dTons of ships. If they are all similar in price to the Galoof, then that is 48585 MCr of assets, plus a monthly profit of 42.2 MCr from the Florian route, and 206.1 MCr from the Aslan route. The TCG is making 3.228 GCr/year profit just on freight fees; if they are speculating as well it is probably higher. If the Duke of Tobia owns 1% (probably more, to be honest) of the TCG, and the TCG pays a 1% per year dividend; then the Duke has personal wealth of more than 486 MCr, and is getting more than 4.86 MCr income per year.

Dilettante book has stock at 0.75% dividend returns per month, so the Duke's income from the TCG would be even higher than that.

Still, the new ships (four, each at 50000 dTons) are a big investment; fifteen years worth of (today's) profits, although the ships themselves can be expected to generate revenue as well.

 

[J. L. Brown]

Well I think I finally have a better grasp on the central question:
Once the Kingdom is established and has 'Minimal' or 'Average' or 'Extortionate trade levies' -- what exactly does that mean? I think it means taking a percentage of the profits from haulage along the Imperial to Hierate route. The TCG makes 206.1 MCr/month; altogether that route produces 589 MCr/month or 7655 MCr per year. The Florian route is obviously a different negotiation; and speculative trade is not addressed in any of these numbers either.

What would be 'Minimal levies'? 25%? 'Average'? 50%? 'Extortionate'? 95%? Higher? Lower?

 

[MasterGwydion]

Well I think I finally have a better grasp on the central question:
Once the Kingdom is established and has 'Minimal' or 'Average' or 'Extortionate trade levies' -- what exactly does that mean? I think it means taking a percentage of the profits from haulage along the Imperial to Hierate route. The TCG makes 206.1 MCr/month; altogether that route produces 589 MCr/month or 7655 MCr per year. The Florian route is obviously a different negotiation; and speculative trade is not addressed in any of these numbers either.

What would be 'Minimal levies'? 25%? 'Average'? 50%? 'Extortionate'? 95%? Higher? Lower?

I would say 5% 15% and 30%. That 30% will really break the bank and piss of both the Imperium and the Aslan.

 

[Anstett]

884 – King Oleb XIV of the Star Dragon Empire of Sindal in Exile (I.e.: Drinaxian Empire) places a 20% tax on all trade between the Third Imperium and Aslan Hierate that passed through the kingdom.

This is what causes the bombardment the next year of Drinax by the Ahroay'if clan.


PoD Trojan Reach

 

[MasterGwydion]

884 – King Oleb XIV of the Star Dragon Empire of Sindal in Exile (I.e.: Drinaxian Empire) places a 20% tax on all trade between the Third Imperium and Aslan Hierate that passed through the kingdom.

This is what causes the bombardment the next year of Drinax by the Ahroay'if clan.


PoD Trojan Reach

Nice! Thanks for the reference! I guess I will change My answer to 5%, 10%, and 20%. 20% is get ready to get bombed again. lol

 

[J. L. Brown]

884 – King Oleb XIV of the Star Dragon Empire of Sindal in Exile (I.e.: Drinaxian Empire) places a 20% tax on all trade between the Third Imperium and Aslan Hierate that passed through the kingdom.

This is what causes the bombardment the next year of Drinax by the Ahroay'if clan.


PoD Trojan Reach

From that reading, I believe it was a tax equal to 20% of the total value of all goods.
On the Hierate route the major players deploy 417k to 500k dTons of ships, (between 211947 to 254133 dTons of cargo space).
Per month that is 178714 to 214286 dTons of ships; 90834 to 108914 dTons of cargo space; 4541.7 MCr to 5445.7 MCr of goods moved.
Per year that is 2323282 to 2785718 dTons of ships; 1175642 to 1415882 dTons of cargo space; 58782.1 MCr to 70794.1 MCr of goods moved.

On the Florian route the major players deploy about 83.4k to 100k dTons pf ships, (between 42389 and 50827 dTons of cargo space).
Per month that is 17871.4 to 21428.6 dTons of ships; 9083 to 10891 dTons of cargo space; 1298.93 to MCr 1557.47 MCr of goods moved.
Per year that is 232328 to 278571 dTons of ships; 118085 to 141589 dTons of cargo space; 16886.14 to 20247.16 MCr of goods moved.

So I tend to think that, in this context, for the Hierate route:
a 5% rate (2939.10 MCr to 3539.70 MCr per year) for 'Minimal';
a 10% rate (5875.21 MCr to 7079.41 MCr per year) for 'Average'; and
a 15% rate (8817.32 MCr to 10619.12 MCr per year) for 'Extortionate Levies' is approximately correct.
20% seems to be the last straw, but maybe 19.5% or 18% or some other number might be a better fit for 'extortionate'.


In comparison, the profit from (and taxes on) freightage fees -- what I had been playing around with -- is much less.
Hierate cargo of 1175642 to 1415882 dTons of shipped per year; at a revenue of 10000 Cr/dTon. So customers & sellers pay 11756.42 MCr to 14158.82 MCr per year just to move those goods. Profits are about half that.

Florian traffic of 118085 to 141589 dTons of 'freight' moved; at a revenue of 21200 Cr/dTon. So customers & sellers pay 2503.40 MCr to 3001.69 MCr per year just to move those goods. Again, profits are about half that amount.

Also interesting to note -- the Tobian Commerce Guild has placed an order for 200000 dTons more shipping; so apparently they think the market can absorb that much added capacity.

[Edit: I made a couple minor mistakes and simplifications above; the key one I realized today is the difference between how the TCG has distributed their ships. Scenario One: The TGC exactly splits their tonnage 5:1 between the Hierate and Florian routes -- but there is no evidence this is actually the case; this leads to figuring lower shipping volumes overall throughout the Trojan Reach; Scenario Two: The TGC has only the single (documented) Galoof-class assigned to the Florian route, with the rest of their shipping on the Hierate route; this leads to figuring higher shipping volumes throughout the Trojan Reach. All of my math so far has been based on scenario one; Scenario two has a maximum of 500000 dTons of ships on the Hierate route, and an additional 100000 dTons on the Florian route.

Second, I treated all ship-tonnage as Galoof-tonnage; & it is a pretty bad (15248 dTons of cargo for every 30000 dTons of ship) design. Third, I used the most costly route to set 'what customers pay to haul freight', and the least profitable route for 'how much profit from hauling freight'. I was being pessimistic, and lazy because I didn't want to guess at how many ships were on each route. /]

 

[J. L. Brown]

I also should point out that the volumes of trades specified above are for Imperial ships. The Tobia Commerce Guild has 200000 dTons of ships; if shiipping on the Hierate route totaled 500000 dTons of ships, half being Aslan, then the TCG would make up 68% of all Imperial aligned shipping on the route, and that is not implied in the material.

So I believe that the Hierate matches the volume of ships, with the majority (described as 'almost a monopoly') being ships from the 'Company Of Grandmotherly Kindness', and most of the rest being ships from the 'Tyeyo Dust-Spice Importers' and 'Glories Under The Claw'.

On the Florian route, the Florians deploy (a matching amount of) 100000 dTons of ships; these might all (or mostly) be from 'Gli! Fong! Uric! Ka' (known in galanglic as ' Acquisition Of Things Not Us'. There may be a few more Florian companies that trade outside the League, but I have not seen them mentioned.

 

[Anstett]

Also the Florians have a (presumed) lot of trade on the Rimward/Core side of the League. Five other polities that side away from the Imperium.

Balancing direct trade with the Hierate and the Stormhaven Republic would take up quite a bit of diplomatic debate.