Tech Levels - Different Enough?

About the Ford Model T;
"The standard 4-seat open tourer of 1909 cost $850[31] (equivalent to $20,513 today), when competing cars often cost $2,000-$3,000 (equivalent to $48,267-$72,400 today);[citation needed] in 1913, the price dropped to $550 (equivalent to $12,067 today), and $440 in 1915 (equivalent to $9,431 today). Sales were 69,762 in 1911; 170,211 in 1912; 202,667 in 1913; 308,162 in 1914; and 501,462 in 1915.[26] In 1914, an assembly line worker could buy a Model T with four months' pay.[26]
By the 1920s, the price had fallen to $290 (equivalent to $3,258 today) because of increasing efficiencies of assembly line technique and volume. Henry employed vertical integration of the industries needed to create his cars."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Model_T

So, a typical consumer car of that time costs less than a typical car of today's time costs now. Modern cars appear to cost about the same as the typical car prior to Ford's assembly line with its worker efficiencies from higher tech methods. Of course, a turn-of-the-century car isn't really comparable to a modern car.

The average automotive assembly line worker made ~$1250/wk in 2008, so it still took about 4 months of work for an assembly line worker to purchase the car he assembled [average domestic car cost ~20,050 in 2006 ], so no change there except that the modern car is a nicer ride and which probably would have cost an arms+legs if taken back to 1914 owing to the fact that its, well, better than a Model T. But, oops.... a high tech car costs more on a low tech world.(?).

Again, this is because a high tech widget isn't directly comparable to a lo-tech widget unless they are essentially the same anyways, in which case it would cost less to manufacture. I suspect on a hi-tech world that the market for antique reproductions, which a hi-tech manufactured lo-tech widget would be, must be a niche market indeed.

A better comparison would be with the Tata Nano, both in cost (~$2000), performance and features. It also illustrates the folly of comparing a tech 15 air-raft directly against a tech 10 air-raft; they will have different features and performance.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tata_Nano

An example of how the standard trade rules might not be as incorrect in some instances as people might imagine.

Let's say that there are 10 tech-10 widgets per dton and cost 'x' amount. A dton of tech-15 widgets cost more, but what if a tech-15 widget is more advanced and can do the same job in only 20% of the space; miniaturization can be a feature of hi-tech goods.... aka, there are 50 tech-15 widgets per dton. Wouldn't it be reasonable for 50 widgets to cost more than 10 widgets, even if the individual cost of each of the 50 widgets is less?

This is the sort of effect the old trade rules seek to model ( I assume ) and that the entire bit is abstracted for the sake of easy play as opposed to forcing the player to keep track of individual shipping forms and inventories. The loss of detail and accuracy is the cost that is paid for the sake of fast play.
 
Ishmael said:
In 1914, an assembly line worker could buy a Model T with four months' pay.[26]


The average wage in 1909 was 22 cents per hour. The average worker made between $200 and $400 per YEAR. Model T = $850

Currently ~$47,000 median income. Car = ~$20,000

The math is easy. Sorry, fail.
 
This is the author cited in the wiki article concerning
In 1914, an assembly line worker could buy a Model T with four months' pay.[26]
http://www.librarything.com/author/georganogn
Based on his other works, I think he probably knows a good deal about this subject.

current median income =~$47,000, which means 4 months work =~$15,700
Therefore, by your numbers, and Georgano's numbers, it takes a modern day worker slightly longer to earn the cost of a new car than it did for a worker in 1914.

Also, in 1914, Ford raised the minimum wage for his workers to $5/day and moved to 3 8hr shifts, so the worker earned ~.63/hr

the math is easy
the research is easy
sorry..fail.
 
Ishmael said:
"In 1914, an assembly line worker could buy a Model T with four months' pay."
This is at best half the truth, because it had to be one of Ford's own as-
sembly line workers - in 1914 Ford introduced a wage of 5 USD per day,
while the other companies still paid less than half that, 2.34 USD per day.

http://www.renewamerica.com/columns/bates/060103

So the best paid industrial workers in the entire USA could afford that Mo-
del T under these conditions, but for their colleagues in other companies
the "four months" became "about nine months", and for those working
outside the well paying automobile industry "at least one year" seems a
lot more likely.
 
EDIT: Ah, Ishmael beat me to the post button...

DFW said:
Ishmael said:
In 1914, an assembly line worker could buy a Model T with four months' pay.

and
...$440 in 1915 (equivalent to $9,431 today)

and
...average automotive assembly line worker made ~$1250/wk in 2008, so it still took about 4 months of work for an assembly line worker to purchase the car he assembled [average domestic car cost ~20,050 in 2006 ]


The average wage in 1909 was 22 cents per hour. The average worker made between $200 and $400 per YEAR. Model T = $850

Currently ~$47,000 median income. Car = ~$20,000

The math is easy. Sorry, fail.

lol

The reading is easy. Fail. Try again, I bolded some of it for you.

And sorry Phil, but no, I don't see you've demolished my point either. The numbers work out similarly to the Model T when you dig. Early adopter examples don't translate well (if at all) to later full production examples.

We aren't even opening up a can of economies of scale whoop-ass. Nor bringing in subsidies. (I'll leave both of those and more to any who still think Traveller needs a simulationist economics model :roll: )

And... no, there's no point, for several reasons, which have already been made, and misread or ignored. I won't even get into the point I feel I shouldn't take the bait on...

I'm convinced there's no convincing so more posting is pointless. Can we return to the original topic already? If this diversion hasn't killed it.
 
By the time the United States entered World War I, three years later, the $5 day was commonplace across industry, but to those at Ford who first qualified in 1914 it was a godsend.

http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/web/20060105-henry-ford-five-dollar-day-model-t-ford-motor-company-assembly-line-james-couzens-highland-park-detroit-automobiles.shtml

oh yeah..the topic
I agree with aspqrz that tech should be uniformly available within a trade group/polity, but that it is distributed along income distributions/wealth distributions which can get hairy once you start talking about pareto and gini values.
 
rust said:
So the best paid industrial workers in the entire USA could afford that Mo-
del T under these conditions, but for their colleagues in other companies
the "four months" became "about nine months", and for those working
outside the well paying automobile industry "at least one year" seems a
lot more likely.

Correct. SO, as we can see, the real cost has come WAY down while the quality and performance of the product has come WAY up over a couple of TLs.

IF one wanted to accurately reflect reality in the Trav universe, the cost & properties of a J2 drive built at TL15 would similarly reflect that. Bring that cost down to ~ 1/4 (in keeping with the true figures I showed) and performance (reliability, etc.) WAY up.

That gives up in MGT terms: Model A

M-Drive =Mcr1
J-Drive =Mcr2.5
PP =Mcr2
 
This came up a bit in my campaign -scout based -where one of the players was carrying a crate or two of trade goods to sell to the locals. He focussed on art and entertainment about 50% of the time, but did try to get better version of common widgets to sell to the rubes. So, the issue came up. The rule of thumb I developed was based on the idea of making some interesting options for him, which needed some more granularity in the tech differential and price. It was not, I hasten to add, based on any empirical data or actual observational theiory; just my own dogheaded ideas of how things shuld work in the OTU. First, I made it plain that what i was providing was purely a local algorhim, based purely on his goals, skills and scale. IE, no minimaxing it and turning the characters into carrot slicer tycoons. Plus, absurd results are ignored.

Take the tech base of what you are hoping to imporove upon (A).
roll 1d6 to determine the max tech at which this can still be obtained without custom construction (either the infrastructure changes so much that it is totally replaced by other tech, is obsolete, etc).

Then, determine which of the available tech levels you have purchased it at (B).

Calculate B-A. square it. allocate the number obtained among 4 basic categories:
Size, Cost, Performance, Fluff. Take each category, and add 1 to it. Then divide the original base tech cost and size by the final value, and multiply performance and fluff. That describes the improved version.

Example: tech 8 Gill system. Cost = 100Cr. At tech 10, one can allocate 4 points: in this case to performance(2) and cost equally(2). The other values are uneffected (0+1). One would have a more reliable Gill (perhaps (2+1) 3 times the duration) at 1/3 1/(2+1)the cost. Since this is probably no more than half a dozen units, Vinnie can move them quickly and profitably, without triggering market corrections as he would if he were flooding the market.

The Model T (tech 5) built now (tech 8 ) has 9 points. Allocate 3 to cost, 3 to performance 3 to fluff. The new model T for that planet is 1/4 the cost, 4x the performance (speed and range increases, most likely), and has a CD player, AC and airbags.

In general, one would not expect planets of tech 12+ (Tech 5 + max roll =11) to be able to manufacture it at all using these conventions - only recreationists (say) might have access to them......
 
It works a bit for protypes, pre tech versions, too. This is specifically used when reverse engineering a known design -not actual R&D.

For this, calculate and allocate the base points as above, but multiply cost and size, and divide performance. Also, at prototype levels, fluff isn;t an issue. So, a Model T reverse engineered at TL 4 would have 1 point to allocate - say using size, so one would have a steam powered compeditor to the model T that was twice as big, but of comparable cost and performance. Again, this is reverse engineering using local tech. Making a steam model T from scratch at TL 4 would produce a very different prototype; and it might not be able to be made at all.



This allows cheap knock offs at TL-1 planets: take the hit on performance, but keep the price point. It won't sell off planet to higher tech, but one can make them for local use.

One could (say) have big bulky flashlights (size of a carbide lantern, but about the same cost and duration), short lifespan flashlights (crap local batteries), or expensive duplicates (for the military and police, no doubt).

In general, I'd only allow reverse engineered items for the previous 2 TL at most; the model T at TL 3 is a disaster - say, one has a vehicle that is 3x the size, twice the cost, half the performance and no fluff. basically, we have a railroad engine and tender running on low pressure wood-fired steam with huge non-pneumatic off iron shod spoked wheels. Pretty cool for the dictators birthday parade, but not much else.
 
captainjack23 said:
It works a bit for protypes, pre tech versions, too. This is specifically used when reverse engineering a known design -not actual R&D.

For this, calculate and allocate the base points as above, but multiply cost and size, and divide performance. Also, at prototype levels, fluff isn;t an issue. So, a Model T reverse engineered at TL 4 would have 1 point to allocate - say using size, so one would have a steam powered compeditor to the model T that was twice as big, but of comparable cost and performance. Again, this is reverse engineering using local tech. Making a steam model T from scratch at TL 4 would produce a very different prototype; and it might not be able to be made at all.

Or one could have the Tata Nano, produced with high tech materials and engineering for low tech/poor societies.

The base model is around US$2500 at present, making it one of the, if not the, cheapest cars available.

And. I believe, there are moves afoot to offer it for sale in the US ... which may well, of course, come to nothing. Projected price seems to be on the order of US$6-8000 if it does because of different safety and compliance standards.

Since, in Traveller, the Nano wouldn't be being built at those higher compliance and safety standards for the simple reason its being sold on low tech worlds unable to manufacture it themselves, the cost would be somewhere between US$2500 and US$6000.

Remember, only in Traveller do materials available at higher tech levels cost more and perform less well than those at lower TLs!

captainjack23 said:
This allows cheap knock offs at TL-1 planets: take the hit on performance, but keep the price point. It won't sell off planet to higher tech, but one can make them for local use.

One could (say) have big bulky flashlights (size of a carbide lantern, but about the same cost and duration), short lifespan flashlights (crap local batteries), or expensive duplicates (for the military and police, no doubt).

Or you could sell LED solar or crank powered flashlights from offworld for under US$5, provably even less.

It's like Mobile Phones in the Third World - the service is actually cheaper to set up, provide and run than POTS phones ... so these low tech s***holes use it even though it is imported pretty much 100%.

Low Tech does NOT mean stupid.

Especially in an 1100 year old Imperium whose main stated purpose is the promotion and expansion of Interstellar trade.

Phil
 
The economic model of Traveller is a bit skewed. But if we want to interject real-world aspects into it, then it gets to be a pain in the ass, and its a game after all.

In theory, yes, a TL15 artificial gill SHOULD be much better, smaller and cheaper (relatively speaking) than one created at TL8. It's easy enough to fix if you want to. Just pick a number, say 10%, and increase the effeciency and decrease the cost by that number for every TL above its original creation TL. Problem solved, referee is happy cause he doesn't have to do a bunch of calculations, and players are happy cause they can shop to their hearts content and know what they are getting for the credit.
 
This is some of the ideas I'm tinkering with over the past few years, off and on.

I list tech level as if it were software version numbers...
tech 9.6 is slightly better than 9.1

I plug these values into a sigmoid curve equation in an economic spreadsheet to give the modifier to production output from worker. This causes production to start out slow, accelerate in middle tech levels and them begin to level off as advances give diminishing returns.

I use the tech level to determine equipment efficiency in equations similar to this;
where T = ( tech of manufacture - tech level of introduction )

T/(T+1) * max efficiency

max efficiency is usually efficiency of a carnot cycle, but I often use 50% for IC engines. Thus,
an IC engine, introduced at tech 5 and built at tech 7.4 would be ((7.4-5)/(7.4-5)+1)*50% would be ~35% efficient at converting to energy in the fuel to useful output, with the rest being wasted as noise and heat. This allows me to figure fuel usage.

This idea of tech level affecting a device's efficiency can work for lots of things and the wasted energy/noise/heat can be used as an indication of signature for sensor rules.

This allows for faster advances at first with diminishing returns as theoretical max efficiency is approached


and of course, higher tech levels allow for the use of more advanced materials which allow tailoring for durability or mass savings.

Be aware that this will not get you anything near Trav numbers, though

I have too much time on my hands
 
@aspqrz

Yes, I agree. And sometimes not stupid low tech can mean making it at home or doing without - lots of local nationalist movements promote that now, so its fairly easy to imagine in the future. Plus, all the balance of trade issues -where will the TL 3 or 4 planet get enough capital to need enough of the items to make it worth while for someone to come in and gouge them ? I'm not saying its the only answer, or reason; but consider that a local government will often have a choice between investing in Tatas with a jacked up price brought in by offworlders or letting the locals get by with pedal and animal transportation and putting the money into infrastructure ? There are good reasons for either choice, and thats why the differences tend to exist.

Also, I'd argue that the availability of higher tech goods without local infrastructure to support them is probably a big bottleneck to increasing the local base tech. Why make the jump to internal combustion engine from low steam tech when one can buy a powercell powered Nano, and send away for parts from the local Nano dealer or trader ? Especially if its cheap ?

It really only is a problem on backwater pre jump tech planets without access to the trade network - or, too, if the trade network stops, fails, or becomes an instrument of coercion.....oh, right. megatraveller.

@phavoc
Yup. A less severe version of my metric for knock off tech (above) worked nicely for where increased tech difference mattered. For reference, I didn't square the intial TL calculation. That's for buying upgraded versions of goods in compatable economies. (TL 14 Gill at TL 14 planet)

@Ishmael.

You and me both, buddy. ;)
 
Ishmael said:
I have too much time on my hands

captainjack23 said:
@Ishmael.

You and me both, buddy. ;)

I used to, ages ago, and I ran through all this "must make trade work" (and other issues) insanity myself, eventually finding no matter how much work was done it was never finished or right and just became harder and harder to play.

Simplify is the watchword :)

Ref off the cuff and not through flipping pages upon pages of rules looking for the right one.
 
naw
making trade work isn't insanely hard
you just have to realize that the end result won't look like OTU or standard Traveller
and you have to realize that economics on this larger scale is a meta-game, setting issue to feed my own world-building urges and not a play-session issue.

in the meantime, I'm just keep waiting for Traveller Dynasty to see if it can do the things I like as well as 'modified' Pocket Empires can do.
 
DFW said:
Ishmael said:
In 1914, an assembly line worker could buy a Model T with four months' pay.[26]


The average wage in 1909 was 22 cents per hour. The average worker made between $200 and $400 per YEAR. Model T = $850

Currently ~$47,000 median income. Car = ~$20,000

The math is easy. Sorry, fail.

"Figures don't lie, but liars sure can figure."

Now, before you fly off the handle, assuming I am referring to you with the above comment, I'm not ... I am, of course, referring to the way in which statisticians and economists twist figures (or conveniently cite only some of the figures ... the ones that suit their slanted arguments) all the time.

I am assuming that this is where you got the figure you cited, from some economist who is slanting things.

According to"Wages in the United States: 1908-1910" by Scott Nearing (available as a PDF download from ...

http://www.archive.org/details/wagesinunitedsta00near

... average wages in manufacturing industries in Massachusetts (one of the states with the most usable economic statistics for wages, and he goes into great detail as to the problems with the data from other states and his methodologies for calculating average wages) for adult males were on the order of $12 per week or $624 per year or between 1.5 and 3 times your source.

In New Jersey, average annual wages were around $580; in Kansas, between $600-780.

Also, your 22c per hour seems reasonable enough for many industries, but you are, I think, assuming an 8 hour working day and a 5 day working week (or 40 hour week) ... which would actually give $457.60 pa ... but, of course, back then it was usually a ten hour day and a 5.5 day week ... or usually around 50 hours per week.

In the book cited above, in fact, Federal statistics for "Labourers" of various stripes cite hours between 49 and 80 per week!

50 hours per week @ .22c per hour = $11.

52 x $11 = $572.

80 hours per week @ .22c per hour = $17.60

52 x $17.60 = $915.20

(Of course, the "labourers" working these hours weren't necessarily getting .22c per hour ... )

Then, of course, what about people who were not "Labourers" - workers who had a "Trade" ...

Hourly wages for Tradesmen in the Construction Industry varied between 37.5c per hour to 81.25 cents per hour!

Which would make it ...

50 x 37.5 = $18.75 pw
50 x 81.25 = $40.62 pw

52 x $18.75 = $975 pa
52 x $40.62 = $2112.24 pa

Model T = $850

Average Labourer's Wage = $580-780
Average Skilled Construction Worker's Wage = $975-2112

Looks a lot better.

The maths may be easy, but, it seems, someone has failed ... either your source has done their sums wrong or you have.

Lets assume your Source has for the sake of argument.

Which is not to say that my Source is perfect, and if you read his methodology section you can probably see some of the flaws he himself admits to, and, I am sure, someone with a better Economics background than mine will probably see others. But his figures seem to give better results than your source and do seem to be based on actual working hours back in the early part of the 20th century rather than the modern 35-40 hour week, which is where, it seems, your source ... fails.

Phil
 
captainjack23 said:
@aspqrz

Yes, I agree. And sometimes not stupid low tech can mean making it at home or doing without - lots of local nationalist movements promote that now, so its fairly easy to imagine in the future. Plus, all the balance of trade issues -where will the TL 3 or 4 planet get enough capital to need enough of the items to make it worth while for someone to come in and gouge them ? I'm not saying its the only answer, or reason; but consider that a local government will often have a choice between investing in Tatas with a jacked up price brought in by offworlders or letting the locals get by with pedal and animal transportation and putting the money into infrastructure ? There are good reasons for either choice, and thats why the differences tend to exist.

Also, I'd argue that the availability of higher tech goods without local infrastructure to support them is probably a big bottleneck to increasing the local base tech. Why make the jump to internal combustion engine from low steam tech when one can buy a powercell powered Nano, and send away for parts from the local Nano dealer or trader ? Especially if its cheap ?

It really only is a problem on backwater pre jump tech planets without access to the trade network - or, too, if the trade network stops, fails, or becomes an instrument of coercion.....oh, right. megatraveller.

@phavoc

Unfortunately, these arguments don't make sense in an 1100 year old Imperium whose explicit purpose for existing is to encourage and regularise trade.

But what about Low Tech countries like Somalia, and most of the Third World, who are changing over to 100% imported Mobile Phone technology rather than use lower tech POTS technology because it is actually cheaper and more reliable to buy, more profitable to run because it attracts more users more quickly than they can expand the POTS etc. etc.

The exact opposite of your argument would suggest.

As for lack of local supporting tech - solar/crank powered LED flashlights are more reliable, more robust, last longer and can be built to a lower price than any bulky, inefficient, unreliable chemical battery incandescent bulb flashlight.

Like the wind up/solar powered radios that have become so popular.

Modern solid state components mean that they last longer and are cheaper than anything that a society manufacturing vacuum tube radios can manage.

Or the Model T Ford vs the Tata Nano. IIRC early motor cars were good for, maybe, 100 klicks before a mechanical breakdown serious enough to sideline them for repairs and required regular maintenance around as frequently. Modern cars are good for tens of thousands, probably in excess of 100k, klicks before major breakdowns sidelining them for repairs and requite maintenance every 5000 miles to avoid this.

It's like the Soviets in WW2, their three key Mechanised Corps performing the most important breakthroughs of the late stage of the war (1944-45) were equipped with Shermans and US Trucks/Halftracks because they had far superior performance to anything the Soviets could produce.

Their standard Tank, the T-34, went into action with a spare transmission strapped to the rear deck because they were good for an estimated 30 hours of driving, on average. In fact, it was estimated that a T-34's systems as a whole had an MTBF of around 30 hours of operational use on average (some were rated at as little as 2-5 hours according to one Korean War source I have seen ... and these were pristine, mothballed, late war tanks given to the NKPA, not rusted clapped out wrecks).

This sort of stuff was hidden by the Soviets for a long time, but has started to come out since the collapse of the USSR, especially (but not only) in the works of people like Glantz and House.

The Soviets may have been nationalistic bastards espousing self-sufficiency publically, but they used the best available tech when it cam to self-preservation.

Phil
 
Of course, the other thing is - in an 1100 year old Imperium every damn thing has already been invented. Anything below TL14-15 is obsolete or obsolescent ... so its TM/Patent/Copyright/IP expired.

And on any planet that has reached at least the TL we have there's this thing called the "Internet" which has, free for the taking, all sorts of records ... including manufacturing drawings and specifications and every damn thing you need to make ... every damn thing short of TL14/15 or whatever the local TL is.

On planets that haven't quite reached that there are all sorts of Books that do the same thing. All there ready for anyone to peruse, copy or buy.

Assuming people from lesser TL planets can purchase travel offworld, they have access to this ... assuming they are not congenital morons, that is ... and can access it all.

They don't have to reinvent the wheel. And over 1100 years, they have all had several centuries at the very least to take advantage of all of this.

In fact, in an 1100 year old Imperium that promotes and protects interstellar trade we can assume that there are many companies who actually sell organised packages of data that are designed to allow interested parties to develop their own local manufacturing ... or, more likely, support ... base to higher levels. And in 1100 years there will be damn few worlds that won't have taken advantage of this.

Now, of course, yes, one could argue that if their society was anti-progress ... like, say, China was in pre-modern times ... a water empire, in effect ... that it might reject, or attempt to reject, such progress.

But all of the non-core worlds are water empires? Come on!

And all of these non core water empire worlds manage to avoid the inevitable fate of water empires faced with external forces that have higher tech than they have ... collapse and destruction of their society (or, if they are sensible, transformation and advancement) and its replacement with one open to transformation and advancement ... for hundreds of years.

Does anyone have a grip on just how unlikely this is for one or two planets, let alone every single non-core world in the Imperium?

Then, of course, there's this Imperium thingy whose explicit purpose is the promotion and protection and expansion of interstellar trade, and who is known, in Canon, to be rather particular about overthrowing regimes it doesn't much like. Oh, and guess what the evidence of Canon is as to "regimes it doesn't much like"? Yep, repressive, anti-progress water empire type societies!

And, IIRC, in TNE (maybe MegaTraveller) there was mention of something called the "Imperial Data Package" which was, it was implied, a record of all Imperial Tech, with manufacturing instructions ... a sort of "Dummies Guide to Advancing Planetary Tech Level" ... and this is in an 1100 year old Imperium which, did I mention it already, has an explicit purpose of expanding, promoting and protecting Trade?

So, tell me again how it makes sense that you have worlds that have been members of the Imperium for, at the very minimum, several hundreds of years, and which don't have ready access to TL13/14/15 goods at not particularly high markups at least as easily as Second and Third world s***holes do in the real world?

Then pull the other one, as it plays "Jingle Bells!" :shock:

Like I said, I have no problem if anyone wishes to play in a plain vanilla OTU, just, for heaven's sake, don't try and tell us that it makes sense in this area! :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Phil
 
Is it really necesary to crap all over a perfectly good thread on 'defining tech levels' to serve up another reheated helping of "Traveller trade and economics is broken"?
 
aspqrz said:
I am assuming that this is where you got the figure you cited, from some economist who is slanting things.

You assume wrong. I got it from a .gov website, census bureau. ;) VERY biased. :lol:
 
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