Captain Jack's Guide to Profitable Passengers and Cargo

[rust]

Ah, here we have a misunderstanding.

I fully agree, of course the rules must change. I never suggested other-
wise, and I never intended to defend the rules - far from it.
The current version makes free trader operations on the frontier almost
impossible, and a situation like that would isolate and in the long term
destroy most of the small remote colonies.

All I wanted was to point to the fact that traders also have to consider
the "social" aspects of their activities, and that a "service" or "customer"
orientation is as important as a purely financial perspective.

Frankly, I have no idea what you were reading into my postings, and why.
To me it seemed that you were defending the rules, while I was asking
for changes (abolish the necessity for stewards for non-high passengers,
reduce the passage fares to make them affordable for colonists, etc.).

 

[AKAramis]

Ah, here we have a misunderstanding.

I fully agree, of course the rules must change. I never suggested other-
wise, and I never intended to defend the rules - far from it.
The current version makes free trader operations on the frontier almost
impossible, and a situation like that would isolate and in the long term
destroy most of the small remote colonies.

All I wanted was to point to the fact that traders also have to consider
the "social" aspects of their activities, and that a "service" or "customer"
orientation is as important as a purely financial perspective.

Frankly, I have no idea what you were reading into my postings, and why.

Ship crews, usually, can/will/must be outsiders to the societies. The social aspects are unlikely to be significant unless it's a rather small world with a much smaller fleet of traders.

If the ship is working a one or two world route, sure. But longer term (once you cross 2 months per visit) there is little to no reason to expect much loyalty from locals, since most of the people you are likely to carry are not round trip passengers. Given the costs, as compared to canonical salaries and expenses, most people buying passages will be migrating... one way trips, effectively.

So the combination of typical passengers being (based upon extrapolations from the CT and MoTrav tables) essentially people moving home, there is little evidence from either ruleset to support much goodwill being generated by carrying those people.

It is essentially insignificant, and not adequate to support mounting staterooms which don't make as much as equivalent cargo tonnage.

Now, the few round trip passengers... they are worth cultivating, but are likely to be insignificant statistically.

And discounting passages is not viable for the long run; you're already losing money, but the added risks of passengers, let alone cramped passengers....

 

[rust]

Well, our group has been playing a simulation of a remote colony for se-
veral months now, and in our setting things have developed differently
from what the (old and new) rules seem to describe.

First, in our scenario most of the passengers indeed are round trip passen-
gers. Administrators have to negotiate with their colleagues on other pla-
nets, businesspeople want to see what is on offer in other markets (and
where they can sell their own goods), scientists want to attend conferen-
ces, students want to go to universities, patients need medical treatment
not yet available in the colony ... and they all want to return, no matter
what the rules expect them to do.

Second, the ship crews are not outsiders. They visit the colony every few
months to stay for a couple of days, and after some years they have
come to know many of the locals - some locals even intimately. It is more
like the situation described in GURPS Far Trader ("a home from home")
then what you seem to envision.

Third, the traders are not losing money. At the colony's starport they do
not have to pay any starport or berthing fees, the refined fuel is free,
and the locals are more than willing to help out with minor repairs - they
know these traders, and want them to stay in business, because they
can trust them.

If I would have to compare the situation to a real-world situation, I would
use the island traders of the Pacific or the river traders of Africa, not the
big trans-Atlantic lines.

Of course, the Traveller rules do not really support this setting - but here
the rules are the problem and have to be modified (which we did), while
the setting is realistic ...

 

[towerwarlock]

1) Trade - the trade system seriously needs updating to modern standards. Because the trade amounts of cargo whether speculative or otherwise is less than could reasonably be found in any large port city today. And the cost of operating those seriously huge multi-million ton freighters along with the cost of even building one makes them extremely uncommon. And who says the players could not set up a shipping office and warehouse to stockpile freight in suffficient amounts to fill the holds easily. So the trade system needs to be brought up to post 1970 standards.

2) Passengers - good lord, if airlines can charge according to distance travelled, why can't anyone else. Charge by the parsec. I mean does that freeloading High Passage person going 6 parsecs pay the same as the one going 1 parsec. Also, there would be alot more passengers that are currently being available.

 

[rust]

In our current "Traveller Homebrew" trade system:

- the Free Traders' Union has a factor on planet, who has warehouse
space for local and imported goods, and who also picks up "small orders"
from the colonists,

- the size of cargo lots depends on the population of the planets in ques-
tion, with a minimum of 1 ton per person per year for the colonies, and
on the trade connections between the planets (e.g. In and Ni, Ag and
Wa, etc.),

- the price for a passage is equal to an average monthly income of an
average colonist (Cr 3000 for an "economy passage" to the nearest "de-
veloped" planet),

- the passage prices are calculated per week on board (much like in a
hotel, in fact), plus a surcharge for "fast travel" (= Jump-2 plus),

- shipbuilding at the starports of developed worlds is much cheaper than
in the rules (most of the job is done by robots, which do not demand
any salaries), for example staterooms / cabins cost the Cr 12000 each
as in GURPS Traveller.

Of course, this is far from the "official" rules, but these and other modifi-
cations make for a believable and realistic "trade and transport" system
of our setting, while the "official" system creates rather nonsensical re-
sults.

 

[Voodoo B Do]

Flag of convenience?

Each planet has its own laws therefor its own set of spaceship laws.

That poor planet in that backwater may be making a LOT of money from ship registration.

I know that Switzerland has a Navy at sea. Does it have a merchant Navy?
...and then there is Panama...

 

[EDG]

Silly question perhaps, but why is the trade "speculative" in Traveller? I know it takes a couple of weeks (at least) for stuff to get to different systems, but surely you can sell things that aren't just passing fads and that you know the world is going to need (like food, minerals, spare parts etc).

 

[captainjack23]

Silly question perhaps, but why is the trade "speculative" in Traveller? I know it takes a couple of weeks (at least) for stuff to get to different systems, but surely you can sell things that aren't just passing fads and that you know the world is going to need (like food, minerals, spare parts etc).

Two reasons:
1. It's a technical term IIRC. It's a variant of Cargo, which is purchased and carried with the hope of resale, the risk of which is taken by the ships owners- spec cargo is , again IIRC, cargo bought by the ships crew for hope of resale, the risk of which is bourne by the crewmember(s) buying it.
Obviously this distinction blurs when player sized (and owned) ships are considered.
(Freight is stuff carried for a fee, period, no risk of resale assumed by the carrier)

2. Speculation doesn't neccessarily mean a gamble - it just means that the final resale price is not specifically known, or not already set by contract.

 

[captainjack23]

1) Trade - the trade system seriously needs updating to modern standards. Because the trade amounts of cargo whether speculative or otherwise is less than could reasonably be found in any large port city today. And the cost of operating those seriously huge multi-million ton freighters along with the cost of even building one makes them extremely uncommon. And who says the players could not set up a shipping office and warehouse to stockpile freight in suffficient amounts to fill the holds easily. So the trade system needs to be brought up to post 1970 standards.

2) Passengers - good lord, if airlines can charge according to distance travelled, why can't anyone else. Charge by the parsec. I mean does that freeloading High Passage person going 6 parsecs pay the same as the one going 1 parsec. Also, there would be alot more passengers that are currently being available.

Well, as ever, two comments:

1. The rules in this thread are specifically NOT for the big freighters, not at all. As specified, it is the spot market that tramp freighters survive on.

2. The rules don't specify what level of trade they are designed for, but it is unlikely that it is for serious corporate shipping given the player group focus of the rules. I suspect the kind of issues you bring up are more appropriate for their own suppliment, oh say, called merchant prince; also, the basic rules are very likely revised from the playtest draft. What you see is a first draft. Just about everyone s(that was intertested) felt that cost by distance made lots of sense.

 

[EDG]

Oh right. I thought it meant that you were buying something and had no idea whether or not you'd be able to sell it at the other end.

But then, why do it? Could you not actually have a trade system that was more like a 'courier' type thing, where someone on planet A says "I want 20 tons of X and will pay 10,000 credits for it if it's on the next ship out?". So instead of speculating on the price, there IS actually a fixed contract for it?

 

[captainjack23]

Oh right. I thought it meant that you were buying something and had no idea whether or not you'd be able to sell it at the other end.

But then, why do it? Could you not actually have a trade system that was more like a 'courier' type thing, where someone on planet A says "I want 20 tons of X and will pay 10,000 credits for it if it's on the next ship out?". So instead of speculating on the price, there IS actually a fixed contract for it?

Well, yes. That kind of transaction is missing from the rules, although I assumed it could be subsumed in the freight rules....as it usually is IRL when non owned carriers are used. For in=sance, Exxon uses exon ships to move crude, and it is either for exon, in which case its just a transfer; for someone else at a contract price (future or not) in which case it is essentially frieght (ship owner = cargo ownrer) , or for the spot market - in which case it's cargo.

Nowadays the kind of free trader model is harder to find - ie someone who 1. owns a ship, and 2. has contracts with a buyer for a cargo, but 3. has to find someone to sell the cargo to him.


Most markets with any stability and complexity pretty quickly develop such that a broker is the contractor and locator/owner of the cargo, usingvarious ship owners as haulers, which is what freight is. Obviously, there can be some mixture, but market efficiency tends to seperate the two tasks as the market grows larger and more complex.

Interstingly, aquaculture is one of the places where this kind of free trader still exists : the captain has a contract with (say) a food processor contract for x tons of herring at Y$/ton; now he has to go catch it.

Small sport fishers often have such a contract with a restraunt.

 

[AKAramis]

Oh right. I thought it meant that you were buying something and had no idea whether or not you'd be able to sell it at the other end.

But then, why do it? Could you not actually have a trade system that was more like a 'courier' type thing, where someone on planet A says "I want 20 tons of X and will pay 10,000 credits for it if it's on the next ship out?". So instead of speculating on the price, there IS actually a fixed contract for it?

That is, by definition, freight.

There is freight in Traveller. Non-speculative trade is: "Go, buy 20 tons of widgets at regina, then bring them here. I'll pay KCr10 per ton, up to 20 tons, provided you get them back here to Wypoc in 5 weeks or less. You should be able to get them for KCr8/ton."

Speculative trade is the model of trade that was historically predominant during the age of sail, and therefore is the model best fitting the lack of communications.

Historically, communications by telegraph and radio killed speculation as the predominant mode of goods moving... it made both non-spec trade feasable, as you could find out if it was worth going for the price locally offered, and moreover, it allowed paid-freight shipping more viable, as you could find out if it was in stock, buy it, pay for it, and have it shipped, all in under a day.

 

[EDG]

There is freight in Traveller. Non-speculative trade is: "Go, buy 20 tons of widgets at regina, then bring them here. I'll pay KCr10 per ton, up to 20 tons, provided you get them back here to Wypoc in 5 weeks or less. You should be able to get them for KCr8/ton."

Speculative trade is the model of trade that was historically predominant during the age of sail, and therefore is the model best fitting the lack of communications.

Historically, communications by telegraph and radio killed speculation as the predominant mode of goods moving... it made both non-spec trade feasable, as you could find out if it was worth going for the price locally offered, and moreover, it allowed paid-freight shipping more viable, as you could find out if it was in stock, buy it, pay for it, and have it shipped, all in under a day.

OK, but what's the point of speculative trade then? Like I said, if you can get "Freight" shipped with a specific contract like in your first example, then why bother wasting the space on speculative cargo that's less certain?

 

[captainjack23]

OK, but what's the point of speculative trade then? Like I said, if you can get "Freight" shipped with a specific contract like in your first example, then why bother wasting the space on speculative cargo that's less certain?

1. Freight isn't always available or in enough lots to fill ones hold
2. One can make potentially make more money from cargo
The assumption is that if the freight is being shipped for resale, it obvously is expected to be worth more than what was paid to get it there.

And, there are lots of traders that just carry freight, owning not a bit of it, and risking nothing on the destination market. Some captains/owners do fine with that. Others are looking for the big deal that they can retire on.

It's really about how much risk you're willing to put up with, and reliability you are comfortable with. Small profit but predicable and steady vs "those who put it to the test, to win or lose it all".

 

[AKAramis]

There is freight in Traveller. Non-speculative trade is: "Go, buy 20 tons of widgets at regina, then bring them here. I'll pay KCr10 per ton, up to 20 tons, provided you get them back here to Wypoc in 5 weeks or less. You should be able to get them for KCr8/ton."

Speculative trade is the model of trade that was historically predominant during the age of sail, and therefore is the model best fitting the lack of communications.

Historically, communications by telegraph and radio killed speculation as the predominant mode of goods moving... it made both non-spec trade feasable, as you could find out if it was worth going for the price locally offered, and moreover, it allowed paid-freight shipping more viable, as you could find out if it was in stock, buy it, pay for it, and have it shipped, all in under a day.

OK, but what's the point of speculative trade then? Like I said, if you can get "Freight" shipped with a specific contract like in your first example, then why bother wasting the space on speculative cargo that's less certain?

In modern economics, there is none.


In an environment where one can not know if the point of sale is going to still need the goods at time of purchase, one must engage in some form of speculation.

In fact, if one does not have communications faster than ships, then one is most likely not going to find much non-speculative trading. Why? because only a fool agrees to buy something without knowing the purchase price.

Truly critical items, you send your own agent to go purchase and carry back; that way, if it is less than your desired rate, you can keep the profits (or most of them), while contract purchase has no such luck, and further, if you can't meet cost, they will simply renege.

 

[EDG]

In an environment where one can not know if the point of sale is going to still need the goods at time of purchase, one must engage in some form of speculation.

Well, it's speculative in the sense that you don't know how much you'd be able to sell it for, but I don't think it's necessarily speculative in the sense of not knowing if you'll be able to sell it at all.

I mean, certain things are constant no matter what (barring incredibly rare society-destroying disaster). Food, for example, Consumables, Spare parts, Minerals, Refined ores, stuff like that. You know that someone on the other end is going to want them - what you don't know is how much they'd want or how much they'd buy it for. But you'd be able to check up on tables at your departure point that showed how much that stuff had sold for in the past at your arrival point (which is being updated all the time as ships come in, so in practise if there's a lot of traffic the tables would be only a week out of date), so you could make an educated guess at least.

I just don't think it's as unpredictable as you make it sound. Sure, something might change radically in the space of a week, but it's really unlikely. In practical terms you've got a pretty good idea of what's hot and what's not on your target world, and as soon as you arrive in system you can probably radio a message to the starport's Trade boards saying what's in your hold and how much you're asking for it, so by the time you land you probably should have a buyer waiting for you who wants it at a reasonable price. So really, you're a week out of sync because of jump, but you can get your cargo advertised in a matter of hours (depending on how far out you are when you arrive insystem). Heck, you could be negotiating your deal while you're heading in from the 100D limit.

 

[captainjack23]

Well, it's speculative in the sense that you don't know how much you'd be able to sell it for, but I don't think it's necessarily speculative in the sense of not knowing if you'll be able to sell it at all.

<snip>

I just don't think it's as unpredictable as you make it sound. Sure, something might change radically in the space of a week, but it's really unlikely. In practical terms you've got a pretty good idea of what's hot and what's not on your target world, and as soon as you arrive in system you can probably radio a message to the starport's Trade boards saying what's in your hold and how much you're asking for it, so by the time you land you probably should have a buyer waiting for you who wants it at a reasonable price. <snip>

All true. The main issue is that bulk megafreighter that arrived while you were in jumpspace and flooded the market with <insert your cargo here>.

But yes. Mostly you'll know whats needed, and have an idea of the price....the issue is will the variation allow you to make a profit. Only in exploration situations (trade or scout) will you have a old full of random stuff for trade, on the chance that someone'll want somthing.

 

[EDG]

All true. The main issue is that bulk megafreighter that arrived while you were in jumpspace and flooded the market with <insert your cargo here>.

Would it though? On a low pop planet, perhaps - but a bulk megafreighter probably isn't going to head to one of those to start with. And on a high pop world, they wouldn't flood the market any more than a single massive cargo superfreighter arriving at the docks of Seattle would flood the US market with items (and your average free trader probably isn't going to be selling much of the common stuff there anyway since the bigger shippers would have that market sown up anyway).

But yes. Mostly you'll know whats needed, and have an idea of the price....the issue is will the variation allow you to make a profit. Only in exploration situations (trade or scout) will you have a old full of random stuff for trade, on the chance that someone'll want somthing.

Well if it's an unknown market I doubt that you'd be carrying much in the hold, would you? That said I guess Imperial arts, information, and other cultural stuff would probably be of interest to the new culture? And the scouts would probably be probing the local economies on their initial surveys and contact runs to see what the local cultures wanted or needed too, and then they'd relay that back to the merchants.

 

[AKAramis]

There is this big rubby spot in traveller... to some it feels good, to others, it causes bunions or blisters...

there is no real definition of just how much trade flows.

just how much trade is there?

IMTU, there isn't much at all. Figure Pop^2 ships per week, at an average 200 ton load. Most worlds are self-sufficient; luxuries are about the only things moving. Each freighter matters.

The OTU, however, has megafreighters carrying up to 10KTd...

So, finding what the right level of trade is for one's personal heresies is important.

Why are there hellworlds? because people have invested in living there, and refuse to leave. They imported the means, and now they work to stay put. And, in many cases, it's cheaper to keep it going than to move everyone elsewhere.

 

[EDG]

there is no real definition of just how much trade flows.
just how much trade is there?

Well, there is if you count GT:Far Trader... that tells you exactly how much trade flows (I have no idea how realistic is it, but at least its internally consistent). But I've generated the trade routes for an entire sector using GT:FT and the results looked pretty damn sensible to me. It's quite interesting actually, when you can see where all the "millions of credits per week" flows are.

(Yes, I know GT:FT is complicated. Yes, I know you have a hate-on for GURPS Traveller. Yes, I know you think it's not "proper Traveller". But it still produces something that works and that makes sense, which is more than can ever be said for default Traveller).