a bunch of us were calculating these types of probabilities a while back for purposes of rating a ship against others.
By looking at the damage and crew bonus, along with the occurance % of each type of critical, the "average" critical hit does 1.6 Damage and 2.1 Crew, in addition to the Solid Hit.
By figuring the odds of getting a critical hit as opposed to a solid or bulkhead, you can figure the average damage per hit scored.
For Single Damage weapons, this results in 1.1 Damage and 1.18 Crew per hit.
For Single Damage Precise Weapons, this results in 1.53 Damage and 1.7 Crew.
Emines would simply score 5/6 Crew and Damage since they can still get bulkheads but may not score crits.
DD/TD weapons score 1 damage on bulkheads so their damage is a little different, but the crew figure is simply doubled or tripled. DD weapons score 2.37 damage per hit, TD weapons score 3.47 damage per hit.
Just don't apply the effects of ANY crits at all, so that part is fair all around. After all, an octurian that get an unfortunate catastrophic ammo explosion early in a game will hardly give an accurate representation of itself.
I've even worked up tables for beam probablities (unfinished) and regular weapons + twinlinking effects.
AD - Hull 2 - twin - Hull 3 - Twin - Hull 4 - twin - Hull 5 - Twin - Hull 6 - Twin
1 --- 0.83 -- 0.97 - 0.67 -- 0.89 -- 0.5 --- 0.75 - 0.33 -- 0.56 -- 0.17 -- 0.31
2 --- 1.67 -- 1.94 - 1.33 -- 1.78 -- 1 ----- 1.5 --- 0.67 -- 1.11 -- 0.33 -- 0.61
3 --- 2.5 --- 2.92 --- 2 ---- 2.67 -- 1.5 --- 2.25 --- 1 ---- 1.67 --- 0.5 --- 0.92
4 --- 3.33 -- 3.89 - 2.67 -- 3.56 -- 2 ------ 3 ----- 1.33 -- 2.22 -- 0.67 - 1.22
5 --- 4.17 -- 4.86 - 3.33 -- 4.44 -- 2.5 --- 3.75 -- 1.67 - 2.78 -- 0.83 -- 1.53
6 ----- 5 ---- 5.83 --- 4 ---- 5.33 --- 3 ----- 4.5 ----- 2 --- 3.33 ----- 1 --- 1.83
