How to start a rebellion ?

[rust]

Imagine a colony on a planet close to the border between two
interplanetary states which are currently at war. The colony is
owned and ruled by a corporation of State A, but State A had
to withdraw from the region, the colony has been invaded and
conquered by State B, and the corporation has switched sides
and now supports State B.

A majority of the colonists is fed up with the heavy handed ru-
le of the corporation and the lack of support from State A and
also dislikes the idea to become subjects of the rather oppres-
sive State B. What they want instead is full independence as
a sovereign state, and the ongoing conflict between States A
and B seems to be an opportunity to achieve it, although this
obviously requires a rebellion.

But - how does one start a successful rebellion, preferably one
with a minimum of casualties and devastation ?

A rebellion needs an organization with a leadership and a com-
mand structure, armed fighting units and various kinds of sup-
port, from recruitment and logistics all the way to propaganda,
civil disobedience, subversion and the ability to carry out intelli-
gence operations.

Since much of the planet is covered by dense forest in a hilly
terrain and many of the settlers far from the few bigger cities
have hunting weapons to deal with the native wildlife, there is
a potential for the creation of guerilla units. The rebels could
also count on the support of much of the urban population, in-
cluding various specialists, like for example computer experts,
mining engineers, journalists and thelike.

What the rebels do not have are heavy weapons and other mili-
tary equipment and technology (the planet's TL is approximate-
ly TL 8/9), training and experience.

Any thoughts on how they could proceed ?

Thank you for your ideas.

 

[locarno24]

Well, with a majority of the colonists on-side, you've got the most important ingredient: popular support.

Essentially, you don't actually want a rebellion. You want both Corporation A and States A and B to sod off and leave you alone.
This means - ultimately - being more trouble than you are worth to keep.

For the corporation, that's easy. Unless they're going to resort to heavy handed merc incursions and other distinctly un-commercial activities, making their commercial operation not profitable should be easy (depending on what it actually is).

Getting the two states to leave you alone is more difficult as the phrase 'strategically located between two warring states' rears its ugly head. The ideal thing to persuade State B to back off is the tacit or open support of State A, but if they couldn't be bothered to fight for the rock when it was one of their colonies, they're less likely to do so now it isn't.

Unless.

Unless what? There my ideas fall over. Essentially, the planet has to offer something worth the investment to state A. Delivering an annoying reverse to state B is worth something, but simply taking back a planet that wasn't theirs in the first place may not be enough. You'd need to figure out how to tie down a significant chunk of forces at an inconvenient time, for example.

 

[rust]

For the corporation, that's easy. Unless they're going to resort to heavy handed merc incursions and other distinctly un-commercial activities, making their commercial operation not profitable should be easy (depending on what it actually is).

The corporation's profits come from the mining and export of certain
rare earths. Most of the actual miners are corporation employees hi-
red on other planets and loyal to the corporation, but the entire ope-
ration depends on the food produced by the colonists' farms in the hin-
terland and transported to the cities where the miners and other cor-
poration employees live.

Interrupting the food supply would be possible, but would almost cer-
tainly require an armed conflict with the corporation's security forces,
and probably also with the occupation forces from State B, since the
rare earths now exported to State B were the main reason for the in-
vasion and occupation of the colony. On the other hand, stopping the
mining operation could significantly reduce State B's willingness to fi-
nance an occupation force and deal with restless natives.

Essentially, the planet has to offer something worth the investment to state A. Delivering an annoying reverse to state B is worth something, but simply taking back a planet that wasn't theirs in the first place may not be enough.

State A might be willing to offer some minor support to the colonists in
order to keep the forces of State B on the planet engaged, but the colo-
nists do not at all intend to encourage State A to take back their planet,
and without an agreement to become subjects of State A again after the
liberation of their planet State A will probably hesitate to really get in-
volved with the insurgency.

 

[AndrewW]

Have an agreement in place with State A about the exports, no exports to State B would be a good start.

Being in a key location, maybe allow the presence of some element from State A, while not subject to State A they could certainly lease land to them or something.

 

[2330ADUSA1]

You could have the Corp be the ones to drive this, with them doing Black opps and Smuggling from State A to bring in Black Market supplies and resources, to build up and stockpile for when they move against the forces of State B.

Then the Corp builds a Puppet Rebellion organization that says they are for Liberation and Independence of the colony from both State A and B. They funnel the Smuggler Black Market resources to this Rebellion organization and they start a Guerrilla/Rebellion Liberation campaign against State B, and stop production to State B, meanwhile increasing Smuggling to State A to keep the flow of the supplies and resources needed to continue the Guerrila campaign. They keep this up and waylay State B's forces and tie them up in a heated Guerrila campaign and push them off the world. Now the Corp keeps a clean image with both State B and State A, and after they have won their freedom...the Corp sets up a way to kill off the leadership of the Rebellion and steps in to assume control and makes it look like they are doing this to safeguard the colony and it's people. Maybe they put into place System Defences and forces to help defend the coly and keep the planet/system truely Independent, but with them totally incharge. I just love plots within plots within plots.

 

[Lemnoc]

How about a false flag exercise where freedom fighters perform a clandestine terror operation while planting evidence that implicates the corporation and State B. That would turn the general population against State B and allow the colony to entreat State A for aid.

Seems the general tactic would be to play both sides against each other while consolidating power.

A convenient parallel might be the aid the French gave the American colonies in their war against Britain.

 

[F33D]

Any thoughts on how they could proceed ?

Thank you for your ideas.

The amount of resistance to a rebellion will depend a lot on A) available military resources. 2) politics of the entity trying to resist the rebels. 3) Cost/benefit in doing so based on how strong the rebels become.

As to how to start one. Study the U.S. colonial rebellion. You have all the elements you mentioned recorded in history.

 

[rust]

Thank you all very much for your ideas.

 

[Dave Chase]

Sounds like a scenario out of the book 'Tactics of Mistake' by Gordon Dickson.

Hmm, depending on what knowledge base the people have, they could place something in the food that requires a certain dose of counter something and feed that food to the troops or opposition before they start their rebellion.

Also, if the mines are so important they need to plant demolition charges in strategic locations that if they (the colonist) are not left alone, the mine will become useable with out lots of work.

(of course the colonist could have a separate entrance that is unknown to both Group A & B so that if they do blow the mine, they still can upstart it again easily. And/or they could have been slowly stockpiling some of the ore for the future to purchase what they need to be independent.)

Unless the colonist have safe off world travel capacity once they rebel they will be decimated by any conflict. They need to make the world cost to much for those they do not want in control and cost less for those that they do.

Also, they may consider going into business for themselves but they need to be careful about that as that seems to just make the former owners mad.

Dave Chase

 

[Epicenter]

How important these "rare earths" are on this world to the ongoing war effort between State A and State B?

I am wondering why State A was so willing to let this world go if they're critical rare earths, considering they're both at war currently. If there was a tense peace, I could see A letting the world go as the political fallout of forcibly re-invading the world would to too great. However, if there's a war going on, most state actors become significantly more blunt in their actions. It suggests that perhaps State A is losing the war; this complicates things a lot for the world. A resistance movement during a major war is a very different beast from the "low intensity wars" that are going on in depressingly large areas of our own modern world.

While a resistance movement could cause State B significant troubles, in wartime the need for raw materials is desperate. I really don't think State B is ever going to leave this world; the resistance movement can never make it too expensive to leave the world. In fact, that State A had to withdraw suggests that State A is losing, so a strong resistance movement might result in overwhelming forces being landed on the world by State B. Assuming something like a wartime draft is going on, State B can land enough soldiers to have a ratio of like 1 occupier to 5 civilians on the world, resistance becomes pretty difficult. Plus with a total war scenario, a lot of very unilateral actions become acceptable. While in our world of mass media interconnectivity it's pretty hard to get away with massacres and so forth, in a universe where you can interdict an entire world, the story might be much different.

Nihilistically speaking, the only way to really get rid of the occupiers it make the planet worthless for them. Setting off "dirty" radioactive bombs in the mine works, making them inviable for exploitation for anyone might make State B lose interest. If the majority of the resistant population are farmers or not really dependent on mining industry, this might be a possible route of independence. It would not be ideal but when it comes to things like independence and resistance movements, humans are not rational at all, so this might be one way to go, especially since it sounds like the miners themselves are part of the occupying force and not "natives." But even then it's likely that State B will continue to occupy the world anyway since it's in "their" space.

For a more traditional or "romantic" resistance movement, the obvious solution is to clandestinely solicit State A for aid, or rather, when the resistance movement starts on the world, it is 100% certain that State A will offer some sort of (limited) aid. While the colonists on this world don't like State A, beggars can't be choosers. Similarly, State A knows that there's no way they can send enough aid to truly "liberate" the planet, they can send enough aid to make State B bleed to hold the world, tying up resources that would otherwise be used for the war effort against them. World War II has a fair number of these situations, where nationalistic or anti-colonialist organizations were helped by their former colonial masters in resistance against their current occupiers. The question of who will hold the country after the war is over is conveniently shelved for the time being. The purpose of united struggle against the current foe takes precedence. Of course, this will lead to a long, grinding resistance.

Another solution for the world might be to "sell" their world to State A. To "sell" themselves, I mean they need to be able to position themselves through public relations, economic analysis, and so on to magnify their value in the eyes of State A. The aim is that when they rebel, State A needs to be willing to move in with naval assets and so on to shore up the new government and prevent State B from simply shipping in further troops and the reprisals that will inevitably follow. It's doubtful that the world will be able to be completely neutral or independent; they might be able to get a really good deal from State A in response for fully supporting State A's war effort, however.

Such a revolt does not necessarily have to be bloody or too violent - in theory (in practice it will be, since it is people we're talking about). If there isn't an immediate threat, the miners and the occupiers might be relatively off-guard. While stopping the flow of food might be impossible, it may be possible to contaminate it. It's ideal that the contamination not be deadly, but temporarily debilitating instead - like body aches and severe nausea - the kind of thing that won't kill a person but will leave them unable to fight. If it is killing people, it's likely that the occupation force and miners will be on guard, distress signals will be sent out and so on. If it's like a major outbreak of the common cold-like symptoms, the occupation forces and miners are likely to look at it as a major inconvenience but just continue to work schedules around it as best they can. I think chemistry at TL8-9 could fabricate something like this that would be resistant to cooking. It doesn't need to be 100% effective. It just needs to be effective enough so when the guerrilla army comes in, what resistance there'll be will be very inefficient. Of course, it might not just be food, a pathogen might be introduced to the water as well.

 

[AdrianH]

What the rebels do not have are heavy weapons and other mili-
tary equipment and technology (the planet's TL is approximate-
ly TL 8/9), training and experience.

This could be where the mercenaries come in. The rebels might gather up whatever funds they can and hire a mercenary unit to provide the weapons and training. Or they might negotiate a contract with a company involving a long term deal about the planet's resources in exchange for the mercenaries actively fighting on the rebels' side.

State A may very well be willing to support the rebels with a view to either denying the planet's resources to State B, or forcing State B to deploy troops there which then can't be used to defend against State A's offensive somewhere else. Of course, once the war is over, the same resistance, now armed with State A's weapons, will also fight against State A if it tries to take over the planet again. (And the now independent planet might have the corporate mercenaries to help out because the company can play State A, State B and any other interested parties against each other to get the best prices for the planet's resources.)

 

[rust]

How important these "rare earths" are on this world to the ongoing war effort between State A and State B?

The colony is a convenient source of the rare earths, but not one that
would be critical for the war effort of one of the states involved in the
war. Both sides can do without the colony's exports, they have other
sources of the minerals.

I am wondering why State A was so willing to let this world go if they're critical rare earths, considering they're both at war currently.

State A lost a major space battle in the region, and as a result of this
also its naval base which controlled the region. The supply lines for na-
vy units operating in the region have become too long and too expen-
sive, and so State A's navy has at least temporarily withdrawn from the
region. Currently and in the foreseeable future State A can only send an
occasional long distance commerce raider or something similar into the
region.
However, State A is not losing the war, it has been more successful in
other regions along the border, where it now controls space previously
under the control of State B. The war is still very much undecided.

Assuming something like a wartime draft is going on, State B can land enough soldiers to have a ratio of like 1 occupier to 5 civilians on the world, resistance becomes pretty difficult.

Since the colony is far from State B's core worlds and transport by star-
ship is difficult and expensive in this universe, the occupation force cur-
rently on the colony's planet consists of little more than one regiment of
ground forces, plus several heavy weapons companies (artillery, tanks,
etc.), a squadron of space capable fighters and some intelligence assets.
The corporation adds to this its security forces, outfitted for police duty,
with a strength of about one battalion. The civilian population of the co-
lony is about 500,000, the majority living in or around the colony's four
cities.

For a more traditional or "romantic" resistance movement, the obvious solution is to clandestinely solicit State A for aid, or rather, when the resistance movement starts on the world, it is 100% certain that State A will offer some sort of (limited) aid.

The problem here is to inform State A about the existence of the resistan-
ce movement, this universe has no faster than light communication tech-
nology, so the only possible way to call for help from State A would be to
send a starship - which makes a nice adventure idea, with members of the
resistance hijacking a freighter and attempting to avoid State B's patrols
on a mission to reach State A's nearest outpost ...

 

[rust]

This could be where the mercenaries come in. The rebels might gather up whatever funds they can and hire a mercenary unit to provide the weapons and training. Or they might negotiate a contract with a company involving a long term deal about the planet's resources in exchange for the mercenaries actively fighting on the rebels' side.

Yes, I think this is what the player characters will be likely to try
- provided they can find a way to get off the planet (see post abo-
ve), something valuable to offer, and a way to return to the colo-
ny without being seen and destroyed by State B's occupation for-
ce. Looks like a rather difficult and dangerous mission, but that is
what player characters are for ... 8)

 

[rust]

Again, thank you all very much for your helpful input.

 

[AdrianH]

What would be amusing is if the PC's hijack a State B freighter, make it past State B's patrols, then run into that State A commerce raider...

 

[rust]

What would be amusing is if the PC's hijack a State B freighter, make it past State B's patrols, then run into that State A commerce raider...

I have to make a note of this ... :twisted:

 

[locarno24]

Are there any permentantly stationed state B orbital assets or ships? Because that's going to be the big tactical hurdle for a TL8/9 force.

Infantry you can deal with. Tanks are more of an issue but can be dealt with provided there's not too many of them (especially if you can make them disperse so you don't have to deal with them en masse). Orbital and air support is a real problem and not one you can deal with easily. Even a hired merc company may not have the legs to hit something in orbit, and that's if they can get on the ground at all - a couple of light naval units can interdict orbit pretty effectively.

 

[alex_greene]

What would be amusing is if the PC's hijack a State B freighter, make it past State B's patrols, then run into that State A commerce raider...

I have to make a note of this ... :twisted:

The most obvious "get out of that" is to have the State B patrols catch up with the PCs' ship and defend it against the commerce raider, long enough for the ship to get to Jump.

Keep it simple. It's okay to make the characters sweat and occasionally jump out of their seats once in a while, but you're never going to win popularity points if you're just going to turn every scenario into a TPK grindhouse.

More importantly, they won't come back for the next session either.

 

[AdrianH]

Depending on how the players react and how evil the GM is feeling, this can go all sorts of ways, most of which will make things interesting for the players without involving a TPK unless they screw up badly.

The raider probably won't just open fire and destroy the freighter. If it follows a WW1/WW2 model, it will want to use threat or deception to prevent the freighter from signalling for help until it's too late. It will board the ship and depending on cargo and general condition, either scuttle the freighter or put a prize crew aboard. That's when the PC's have the chance to say "We're very pleased to see you!" - that ship is their ticket out of the system and into State A's space. Or they could try to take over the raider, giving them a way out of the system and also a useful asset for the rebellion. The raider captain might take them where they want to go, or he might just take them prisoner anyway and let his boss back home decide what to do with them, especially if they tried and failed to take over the raider.

State B's patrol coming to defend the freighter is the last thing the players want, but don't let that stop you from having it happen anyway...

 

[alex_greene]

Start it small, and have the characters worm their way into it gradually.

The characters don't hear about it in the news, but they hear drunken shouting in the pub each week they they come to meet their Patron, and it's louder every time.

Then the rumours begin - a shipment of supplies delayed, medicines running low, a beating witnessed on a street corner - a woman and her child going out shopping - and nobody lifted a finger to help.

A name starts appearing in the news - a rebellious group, Dala Garrhein (DAH-la ger-RHEEN), that quickly gets branded a terrorist organisation.

Dala Garrhein wear green balaclavas and white armbands in their actions - blurred news footage repeatedly shows masked DG men in olive drab fatigues brandishing assault weapons in front of the red-white-green DG flag. Nobody knows anybody who's in the DG, though, despite plenty of drunkards in the pub asserting that they'd join it like a shot.

On the news, there is this woman who regularly appears, Dr Tanbula Rai, calling for peace from both sides - a figure like Aun Sang Suu Kyi, with a real head on her shoulders, rising above the howling mob to urge calm and striving to bring all parties around the table to try and work out what to do.

Meanwhile, they are getting work from their Patron that pays well - put on security uniforms with helmets and protect a warehouse (the place gets burgled, and maybe they wing one of the burglars and drive the rest off); escort a convoy (it comes under attack, mostly thrown bottles and housebricks, and the characters are told to open fire only to drive people off, not to shoot to kill or even wound); even just take on courier duty ferrying some vital data to the client (nothing happens to them, but they hear in the news of a car bombing clear across town in the news the following morning).

Tanbula Rai appears again, condemning the car bombing and again urging peace and rationality. A news reporter reveals that a blurry Dala Garrhein spokesman has claimed responsibility for the bombing, which also killed some passers-by: apparently there were a few colonists, women and children, in the vicinity - the news harps on about how irresponsible Dala Garrhein are, and that they don't care whom they hurt.

Some pundit maintains that they're rabid animals who need putting down and so on. Other people take exception to this; the pub erupts, troops get called in to break it up and so on.

Then let the characters begin to discover the consequences of their actions.

One of their old friends is nowhere to be seen, and hasn't been seen in weeks - it turns out that he's been laid up at a friend's house and he's lying low. Turns out that he'd been winged by helmeted uniformed guards protecting a warehouse of luxury food supplies earmarked for the State B quisling's new mansion, and all he'd been trying to do was break in to get food to feed his family.

The convoy was protecting the son of one of the State B potentates, and he'd just been out on one of his nightly runs looking for, er, comfort women. Look that up. The potentate's son is not a nice man.

And the car bombing? Turns out they'd only bombed the decoy. The characters' successfully-completed mission had allowed data to fall to the State B security forces detailing the timetable of the takeover, including schedules of false flag operations - a bombing of a school, sabotage of the water plant, a deliberate release of a nasty pathogen in a hospital to reduce the public's confidence in their public services and weaken their resolve.

Then give them one final mission. One that pays more money than they have ever seen.

An assassination.

Tanbula Rai.

The Patron wants her taken out by a shooter when she makes her next live public appearance on the news. Then the characters are shown the clothes they are supposed to be wearing.

Green balaclavas and white armbands.

Oh, and they're first going to be filmed standing in front of a Dala Garrhein flag backdrop, waving assault rifles in the air, and read from a script.

If they haven't twigged yet, have them make a few INT rolls for it to dawn on them that the Dala Garrhein are not local, but rather a fiction made up by State B, and that an awful lot of the news they have been seeing might be a bit of a lie.

Let them work out what would happen if they kill off Tanbula Rai ... and are allowed to be captured and interrogated. Imagine all the beans they could spill about their Patron.

How much more convenient would it be for them not to be found alive afterwards ... or even to be found at all.

They can overhear a discussion where their Patron outlays their ultimate fate.

The guns have been rigged; they won't actually fire, but a small charge will explode, wounding Tanbula Rai in the shoulder and making it look as if she's been winged. And yes, Tanbula Rai is in with the oppressors. It turns out that she is the head of the snake.

Even if the characters refuse, the Patron will make sure the attack takes place with trained security troops - and the characters' charred bodies will be found later, with enough evidence planted on them to implicate the absent State A as being behind all of this terrorism.

It would be convenient, as this point, for an interruption to disrupt everybody's plans.

State A returns, with a series of carefully-planned car bombings at various State B facilities; one of them is the news studios the characters have been taken to.

At this point, the characters can make their way out through the smoke and rubble and to freedom. But they will have nowhere left to go. Their oldlives will be over.

What will they do next?

For further inspiration, go and look up the 2000 AD serial Savage. It paints a similar story - the Volgs invade Britain and tear it up, but the Yanks are little better, coming in under the pretense of being liberators where all they want is the North Sea oil and gas reserves.