AnotherDilbert said:
Neither example says much about the Imperial economy or how many spacecraft is can or want to afford.
True. But one is based on reality the other on dice rolls. If we are going to make assumptions its a safer bet to make them with real data.
AnotherDilbert said:
Example: Rhylanor has a population of 8 billion and a GDP of about TCr 120. With a Naval spending of 1% and a ship stock of ten times the naval budget as per TCS that would be about TCr 12 worth of ships or about 120 battleships with perhaps 2000 crew each for a total of 240 000 shipboard crew or 0.003% of the population.
Since about 80% of the Imperial population lives on HiPop HiTech worlds this is approximately representative of the Imperium.
This is only a rough estimate, but probably accurate to within an order of magnitude.
0.003% of the population corresponds to about 10 000 people of the US population. With 10 000+ manned aircraft in the US armed forces (according to wiki), that is somewhat comparable to the number of pilots in US military service.
Ah, so you understand the concept of equivalancy - good. Assuming you don't later profess ignorance in the concept by ignoring it this will be easier to explain.
Rhylanor is a single world in the Imperium. The US is a single nation on Earth. With me so far? First off we all know that the economics of the Traveller gaming system don't follow any logical economic theory. There are massive holes in the game that cannot be explained in making the economic system work, so they are handwaved off because (as) it's a game, and (b) economics are boring to most people that aren't economists, oh and (c) even in reality it's been proven time and again that economics and political reality do not share the same conceptual base. If you don't know what I'm referring to then please go out and educate yourself on why what economists state don't match up to socio-political realities. I'm specifically referring to trade.
Using TCS numbers is fine, but unless and until you understand the underlying economics of the system they are pure fantasy. As it's been said, this is a game so it's fine. But you are trying to use fantasy numbers to compare to reality. It's far more logical to use real numbers and then scale them up to fantasy.
I went back to Sector Fleet (TCS is fine for some things, but Sector Fleets also breaks down forces in the Spinward Marches, so it's more useful for the discussion). According to SF, the Rhylanor sector fleet (Imperial) has a total of 8 battleships, 1 fleet carrier and 1 battle tender with 3-5 riders (as major combatants - supporting vessels not included). The subsector fleet consists of only lighter vessels ( 1 CL, 16 destroyers, and 19 escorts). Colonial feet assets are 6 DD and 32 Escorts). It is listed that these are all fairly typical. There is mention of a reserve fleet in mothball status, but no ship listing. Personally I think the listed fleets are rather puny. Even the Jewel fleet, which should be one of the stronger ones, is not much stronger than that according to SF. The subsector fleet is much stronger than the norm, with a pair of 2nd and 3rd class battleships for additional power.
Sf does speak of reserve ships stationed in each of the sub-sectors that are in mothballs and could potentially be re-activated in times of crisis. For Jewel 16-24 capital ships might be operational after 90 days (it's one of the heavier listings), along with cruisers and destroyers.
Nowhere is stating that 120 battleships are around - for a single planet. I'm not disagreeing with the math. What I'm trying to state is that it's not matching the math we see from nations in reality, or even some previous materials. So, to repeat myself, we can assume pure fantasy or scale up from reality.
AnotherDilbert said:
Agreed, people are people. But pilots are people too.
Note that I don't assume absurd levels of training, just an average skill level of 2 as has been standard since LBB5.
I would consider skill-2 a skilled professional, not a random first term naval rating.
Aye. And you completely miss the point about people, especially those who serve. No one is disputing skill levels. Just some of the assumptions you are making and providing no justification for. You've provided nothing to justify your statement (and again, there is no dispute about average skill levels).
AnotherDilbert said:
You reject astronauts as a comparison, I reject wet navy personnel as a comparison. Without numbers we both just speculate.
Aye, as should you. Imperial navy is equivalent to the wet navy, no? Imperial pilots equivalent to regular pilots, no? You reject the numbers I present (from reality I remind you). Sigh... Again, equivalency. You wanted to use it above, you reject it here. Why is that?
Since you raise the issue, please, for the edification of anyone reading this, please state some statistics that show astronauts are a reasonable comparison to anything? They are the elite of the elite. I will tell you. 536 humans have traveled to space. Of those 24 have traveled beyond low orbit and only 12 have walked on our nearest neighbor. So explain to everyone how astronauts are comparable to anything?
AnotherDilbert said:
I agree we don't know exact numbers, but we can make rough estimates, as above.
I don't think we can reject the canon Imperium just because more or less randomly generated data and still discuss the Imperium.
Agreed. The expansion of the Imperium makes very little sense in any form or fashion. The randomness is fully explained by die rolls though. Which is a terrible basis upon which to try and have a serious comparative discussion. It is far better, logically speaking, to use reality upon which to have the basis of the discussion, altering things such as tech level, which I believe most people see Traveller as. At least I do.
AnotherDilbert said:
I'm all for real-world comparisons, but I will not agree to equalling G$ ~500 spaceships with G$ ~20 wet ships.
Well, you are free to do so if you choose. There's nothing logical to support such a position though. Still, it's the internet and we are discussing Traveller - ANYTHING is possible!
AnotherDilbert said:
]
They are both many TLs and millennia from the Imperial Navy. Modern warships are roughly as distant from triremes as 53rd century starships in TL and time.
I would reject estimates of the USN based on the republican Roman navy, just as I reject estimates of the Imperial Navy based on the current USN.
That's a fallacious statement. If you cannot see the comparisons between modern ships and Traveller ships, well, that's rather sad. Based upon your previous statements I would say you are just objecting out of something other than logic and common sense.
Other than one vessel being water based and the other vacuum based, they are very close analogues (again, equivalency). Modern vessels are VERY different than tiremes. Again, if you can't see that either, then discussing anything with you is pointless.
AnotherDilbert said:
France and Germany successfully mobilised millions of men into combat effective units in a few weeks in 1914 and 1939.
My point is that you have to have the trained men, units, and equipment when the war starts, or you have lost the war before the first shot is fired.
Let's put some context to that statement. First off, "mobilizing" your reserves simply means calling them up. At no point does that mean they are effective as a fighting force. Secondly, for the time period. the average reservist was NOT a professional soldier. Conscription was the norm, men served their hitch and got out. Conscript forces have historically been nowhere near as skilled as professional/career military. A historical review of battles will tell you this. After Marne, and then Ypres, the war on the German/French front settled down into trench warfare. So "successfully" mobilizing conscripted infrantry requires context.
In WW2, France mobilized its reserves to invade the Saarland while the bulk of German forces were invading Poland. They did this partially by mobilizing their reserves. Two weeks after they began mobilizing they attacked. From the Wiki entry on this -
"French mobilization suffered from an inherently out of date system, which greatly affected their ability to swiftly deploy their forces on the field.[4] The French command still believed in the tactics of World War I, which relied heavily on stationary artillery, even though this took time to transport and deploy. Many pieces also had to be retrieved from storage before any advance could be made." Were they able to successfully mobilize? According to the entry, not so much. Were the troops successful? Again, not so much. I would argue their defeat and loss of all their gains was more to the better led German soldier than anything that had to do with reserves. But since we are talking mobilization, it's relevant.
From a Traveller perspective, Sector Fleet history on the Solomani Rim War,
"While initial Imperial battle performance was unimpressive, especially among reserve forces brought up from deep in the Imperium, hard lessons were well learned in the early stages of the war. Soon the Imperial fleet was on the offensive. From this point on, the Solomani had lost, though hard years of war were needed to convince them of it." This is fictional history, but repudiates the idea you propose from the gaming universe perspective.
To be fair, the above means very little. It was fiction written up for a fictional game. This is specific to Sector Fleets. It's not mentioned in the original Solomani supplement. But that's not at all unusual for Traveller materials. However, if you wish to cite and use fictional materials, then you have to take the good with the bad. As I continually state, my points are taken from reality and used as equivalents for the gaming universe.
AnotherDilbert said:
Most European nations had massive conscript-reserve armies in 1914, 1930, and 1939. They were of course not mobilised in peace-time, but they were available in a week or two.
Aye, on paper they certainly were. In reality their effectiveness showed. Having lots of bodies is pointless if they get ground into meat when encountering the enemy. The invention of modern warfare and modern weaponry has made massed armies redundant and has been proven time and again when massed charges went up against the machine gun.
AnotherDilbert said:
It was still one of the most powerful armies in the world. I agree it was much too defensive and intended to fight WWI again, but the Maginot line was a reasonable choice for a future conflict with a larger, stronger Germany after the crippling losses of WWI. The Maginot line worked to limit German choices and channel German attacks through a narrow front in Belgium. France also had a large mobile field army.
Indeed it was. Which is a bellweather for how some things are measured. The French should have been able to easily repulse the Germans. They did not. The British and French had far superior armor to the Germans. They still lost. On paper the French military was fearsome. In reality it was a paper tiger. Leading up to the beginning of hostilities the governments of Britain and France made many, many mistakes. There are literally tons of historical books out there that identify these weaknesses and why the allies suffered so mightily under the German boot - and also many of the boneheaded decisions of the Germans (and Russians, Japanese, Americans, etc).
AnotherDilbert said:
Sure, but that was sufficient to win WWII. And it was big, very big. Even if half of it was crap it was still big.
You are conflating multiple things here. Had the wars been between only Russia and Germany, it may have turned out very different. Germany under Kaiser Wilhem learned the hard way about fighting a war on two fronts. So it settled one to concentrate on the other. The American industrial machine helped mightily to suppress Hitler.
The Russian army at the start of WW2 was weak. It took the Russians nearly two years to rebuild into a fighting force that could oppose the Germans (and to find the right leadership). At the start of the war, when they invaded Poland from the east their equipment was junk. Yes, still a big army, but like the Tsarist forces predating them, they were a large, inefficient force.
The Soviet army of the 80s was very large. Would it have steamrolled over the US and it's Western Allies? (shrug). When we wargamed at the Fulda Gap we knew our life expectancy was short. Our mission was to delay or bottle the Warsaw Pact. Would we have succeeded to give time for the reserves to be brought over from the US? Who knows.
AnotherDilbert said:
Yes, the Imperium is rather safe against any one possible enemy.
Historically the biggest threat is internal, e.g. Barracks Emperors, Solomani breakaway. Presumably with local support Olav and Arbellatra were able to move fleets from the frontier to the Core quite quickly. If a frontier region grew disaffected and joined forces with an enemy the Core could be under attack.
Yes, the Imperium, like many empires over the ages, faces internal threats. Though internal threats are not the same as external. There is no 'defense in depth' to that. When you give your admirals the proper tools to do their job they, like Caesar, can bring their forces home.
For any polity, if a region joins with external forces then the core of your polity can be attacked. What does this have to do with the discussion though? We aren't talking about civil wars here.
AnotherDilbert said:
Yes, agreed, that is a better view. Still the British/US position is unusual compared to previously dominant major power like France, Spain, Rome, Germany, Russia, and China.
If you are referring to the other powers being primarily land powers, that's true. Of course the other powers did not rise to their status when it was possible to project power across the world. Rome, to an extent, had this with the Med, but ship technology required the navies to be mostly coastal. Crossing open seas was an invitation to death for ships that were still mostly human powered. China found out the seas were deadly to invading forces trying to invade Japan. Both times the 'divine wind' saved them from their Mongol invaders. Perhaps it is fortuituous that both England and the US had very large moats to protect them. Though as the native Americans found, and the colonies themselves, it just made the trip longer to bring forces. George III brought tens of thousands of troops and mercenaries easily enough across the Atlantic to fight the colonists.
AnotherDilbert said:
About 80% of the Imperium's population lives in HiPop, HiTech systems.
With the average TL across the Imperium being TL12. Neither point is particularly relevant.
AnotherDilbert said:
There are many possible TL-15 fighters. Some may have similar cost, some don't. That does not mean that the Imperial economy is the same as the US economy. As usual I reject the equivalence of the Imperium to any historical power.
Again, using the concept of equivalency, the US has the largest military budget and highest TL of any of the world powers. the Imperium is one of many powers in the game. China, Russia, the non-aligned nations, the West... each could be one of the major powers in reality. That's the point. You can reject the idea of equivalency, but it doesn't make it any less valid. The point was that a nation that has the largest economy and a defense budget larger than the next 6-7 nations
combined. And we could only afford 300 of the most advanced fighter jets ever created. Every nation has a limit on how much it can spend on weapons before it bankrupts itself.
AnotherDilbert said:
Agreed, and completely irrelevant to the Imperium. Just as the F-22 is irrelevant. Which was my point.
How? Remember, we are talking about equivalents. I'm trying to use real-world information. If we refer back to Book 00, it states in the modification section (where it counsels players if they want to make changes to the rules) -
All changes should be rational, logical, and scientifically sound (after all, Traveller is a science fiction role-playing game). Using reality as the basis and upscaling it to the 52nd century is rational, logical and parts of it scientifically sound. But, like the tagline says, Traveller is still a game first and foremost. So the equivalence of today's budgetary constraints when it comes to weaponry is not at all irrelevant.
AnotherDilbert said:
Reserve units must of course be regularly called up and exercised to be of any use. I have never heard of response rates as low as 50% in Sweden or any major European mobilisation, but it's never 100% obviously.
That was what I found in an article from The Defense Post. I was looking for a better site that was better known, but I didn't spend a lot of time digging. Other articles did state it was a voluntary conscription recall, not a mandatory one, which can account for the lower numbers. In a 2016 Foreign Affairs article (a well-regarded publication), they had this to say about the Swedish armed forces -
The Swedish military, which toward the end of the Cold War boasted nearly half a million reservists and full-time officers, is having trouble recruiting and retaining the 17,100 troops its budget currently allows for. As of April, the armed forces were missing 1,000 of the 6,600 full-time soldiers and 6,500 of the 10,500 part-time reservists it needs. Which, combined with the increasing Russian tensions, conscription is being brought back. Probably not a bad thing for any of the Nordic nations. Make it painful enough to invade and the invader has to either commit more forces to ensure a victory or leave a potential enemy on a flank that could later threaten them.
However it doesn't obviate the fact that modern military equipment requires more training to master, and more practice to retain that mastery. A infantryman needs to know not only his basic infantry tactics, but also how to deploy mines, how to use squad-level weaponry, how to use night vision goggles, man-portable anti-tank weapons, etc. It's a LOT to learn, and you have to keep practicing regularly to maintain your mastery. Which is why most militaries prefer their reserves be rotated out from previously trained troops. Then you "just" have to try and maintain the skills. But, like I said, nations find that easier to do on paper than do in reality.
AnotherDilbert said:
The invaders are probably the same type of reservists themselves. Else they are woefully outnumbered in any remotely fair fight. I'm not sure reservist mechanised forces are all that unprepared for manoeuvre warfare.
Reserve units are of course complete units with heavy weapons and motorised logistics, not just unorganised mobs.
Israeli reservists seems to be quite adept. German reservists in 1914 were quite capable of overwhelming small professional British forces.
Invading troops today are usually the main-line regular troops. It's much better to use your less-skilled troops to control the rear areas and mop-up pockets of resistance since they typically have second-line equipment. Though it's true that some leaders would prefer to squander ill-trained troops to soak-up the fire of the enemy. But again, with modern weapons, ill-equipped and trained, they will be cut down and easily destroyed. Not to mention that reservists can be more easily demoralized when taking casualities. Iraq found out this when their massive army of conscripts ended up not fighting or surrendering. Or during the Iran-Iraq war.
Isreali reservists are an exception to the general rule, however. Their situation and the fact that they have fought conflicts, wars and other things constantly since the creation of their nation puts them in a separate class. And no, reservists aren't unorganized mobs, but nor are they finely-tuned war fighting units you can snap your fingers and make into finely-tuned fighting units.
AnotherDilbert said:
Local forces are just smaller powers, not necessarily low-priority forces. I would imagine that e.g. local Jewell forces have much higher readiness than Imperial reserve forces long behind the potential front.
Naval units are expensive, so the saving of having reservist crews is tiny and makes no sense.
Local forces often will see more combat than mainline imperial forces because of how the Traveller universe is set up. That's the job of the local forces to deal with the 'gnats', while mainline forces deal with the bigger enemies. Smaller units would be more likely to see combat (escorts and perhaps destroyers taking on pirates or privateers).
You will find that reality often makes little sense when it comes to governments and militaries. And where the choose to pinch credits would be no different than the stupid and short-sighted ways militaries have done so throughout the centuries.
AnotherDilbert said:
Deneb 1613? Depot A10066A-F.
Huh. Missed that one. Learn something new every day. I had always gone with the Corridor depot. I'll have to go back and figure out which version added it.