Would a far/free trader ever use missiles?

[k0k0pelli]

So on another thread there is an interesting discussion about missiles and it got me wondering. Would Free/far traders, or similar ships that a player is likely to have, use missiles ever? At 250k per missile a single missile is the same as the monthly payment on the mortgage or almost 5 years of maintenance for a Far/Free trader.
With all the challenges for far/free traders to maintain profitability to begin with, launching multiple missiles would significantly impact the bottom line. Would it not be more cost effective to use energy weapons as a deterrence or just let pirates take the cargo? To truly be a threat to most ships via missiles alone you would be expending at least 1MCr (4 missiles) probably more, with no guarantee of success

If the ship owner is a government or independently wealthy I can see it but that is not the case for most Far/Free Trader owners, or even subsidized merchants for that matter.

 

[Condottiere]

Additional missiles can be purchased for a ship, increasing its stock of ammunition and missiles can be replenished after use. Twelve missiles consume one ton. The listed cost is for 12 missiles.

 

[k0k0pelli]

ah, ok. That makes more sense. Thank you for the correction.

 

[Vormaerin]

It is 250k for 12 missiles. That's still crazy expensive, but not a quarter of a million each.

Still, as I pointed out in the other thread, I don't see any reason a free trader would use missiles. The margins on free trading don't support that kind of expense and other options (like a beam laser) give defensive options that protect the ship from damage and don't have the same costs as a missile.

 

[Condottiere]

That depends on how existential the threat is.

Launching twelve missiles at once is the nuclear option at that smallship scale, without being actually nuclear.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

A lot cheaper than losing the ship...

If you actually need them, and they do the trick, they are cheap (even by the dozen).


A worse problem is that launching only a missile or two per turn isn't very effective, a single laser with a half-decent gunner will swat any that might hit. You need to launch LOTS of them to make a difference...

 

[Arkathan]

Would a far/free trader ever use missiles?
Yes. Yes they would.

Drinaxian Companion
Pg 162 Puttinalong
Pg 164 Hando's Ship

The proper question is, "SHOULD they?"

 

[k0k0pelli]

I still tend to think it is not a cost effective defense for a trader but it is at least possible to do without bankrupting the merchant.

a single missile has close to zero chance of taking out a ship armed with a laser. 4 missiles stand a small chance but not high. 12 could likely do it though. A single beam laser with a gunner skill of 2 can take out 3-4 missiles but not 12.

I would actually need to do some math to figure out the damage curve for missiles since skill is not important usually and the number of hits is based on effect so you are likely to reach diminishing returns once you get 4 missiles though the defense.... Nope, since you get +1 per missile I guess it would in theiry scale with the number of missiles that got through?

 

[AnotherDilbert]

I would actually need to do some math to figure out the damage curve for missiles since skill is not important usually and the number of hits is based on effect so you are likely to reach diminishing returns once you get 4 missiles though the defense.... Nope, since you get +1 per missile I guess it would in theiry scale with the number of missiles that got through?

One missile has about 50% chance of hitting (average ~0.5 hits). Ten missiles has almost 100% chance of hitting (average ~9.5 hits). Without evasion, defensive fire, etc.

Launch lots, or none at all...

 

[k0k0pelli]

One missile has about 50% chance of hitting (average ~0.5 hits). Ten missiles has almost 100% chance of hitting (average ~9.5 hits). Without evasion, defensive fire, etc.

Launch lots, or none at all...

Yes my presumption is an average pirate ship should be able to take out 2-5 missiles per beam laser turret (+4 for beam laser +1-2 for gunner, perhaps another +1-2 for fire control software.) so below 4 there is not a lot of point unless you can launch more salvos than the defending ship has beam laser turrets.

What I am wondering is how many missiles actually need to get through on a ship with minimal (say 2-4) armor to stand a reasonably decent probability (over .6) of making it incapable of continued pursuit. crit fishing is one way to go but for that you would likely need at least 4 missiles to get past defenses in a single salvo. At a guess about average of 2-3 getting though per 100 tons of ship would render it combat ineffective. Short of actually doing the probabilities though that number could be way off. The math is not too hard but since there are so many variables (armament, comparative tech level, skill of gunner and pilot, excess thrust for evasion, etc...) there is no one true answer.

In the simple case of the 400 ton close escort (2 triple beam lasers, fire control 4, evade 1, at least 1 thrust left for a single volley evasion) I would guess you would need at least 6 volleys of 12 (across 6 turns) to render it combat ineffective if it dedicated the turrets to defense while missiles are flying.

A +10 (+4+2+2+2) against a DM of 8 puts it at 9 missiles destroyed per turret on average so it is quite likely when you account for evasion it might not get hit by any missiles. A single volley of 12 would be a hail mary at best.

 

[Vormaerin]

I don't think the +4 to hit from Beam Lasers applies to the Point Defense reaction. It says that the +4 to hit applies to Gunner's checks to attack. But Point Defence is a reaction and has different modifiers than an attack does. But perhaps I am just reading a distinction that isn't there.

Regardless, a free trader is going to lose to a paramilitary ship. It's only hope is jumping or reaching help.

 

[Vormaerin]

For the amount of money you'd be spending on those missiles, you'd be better off with triple pulse lasers and just pounding away at the close escort, hoping to get lucky before it cripples your ship. Or beam lasers if you doubt the accuracy of your gunners.

 

[Vormaerin]

A lot cheaper than losing the ship...

If you actually need them, and they do the trick, they are cheap (even by the dozen).


A worse problem is that launching only a missile or two per turn isn't very effective, a single laser with a half-decent gunner will swat any that might hit. You need to launch LOTS of them to make a difference...

Sure, missiles are better than no weapons. They are absolutely not better than laser or laser/sandcaster turrets that can fire at the bad guy with a much better chance of hitting (albeit for a lot less damage) or reduce the damage your ship takes while you try to escape.

 

[k0k0pelli]

I don't think the +4 to hit from Beam Lasers applies to the Point Defense reaction. It says that the +4 to hit applies to Gunner's checks to attack. But Point Defence is a reaction and has different modifiers than an attack does. But perhaps I am just reading a distinction that isn't there.

Regardless, a free trader is going to lose to a paramilitary ship. It's only hope is jumping or reaching help.

Oh yeah, I m more thinking how large a volley would need to be to get through defenses. I chose the escort because it was the smallest jump capable ship focused on combat.

We have always added the weapon accuracy DMs for point defense but that may be wrong. (it did not come up much as far as I can remember)

 

[Condottiere]

Look at it this way.

Potential energy (destruction), which if unutilized might seem a waste of money, though not if compared to unused (practical) laser weapon systems.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

I don't think the +4 to hit from Beam Lasers applies to the Point Defense reaction. It says that the +4 to hit applies to Gunner's checks to attack. But Point Defence is a reaction and has different modifiers than an attack does. But perhaps I am just reading a distinction that isn't there.

Agreed, PD isn't an Attack.

 

[Sigtrygg]

[devil's advocate]The purpose of civilian weapons is not to vapourise pirates.
The purpose is to make the pirate think twice about attacking since the combat may take enough time that the local help can arrive and the pirate is forced to leave with nothing apart from battle damage repair costs.[/devil's advocate]

 

[AnotherDilbert]

Sure, missiles are better than no weapons. They are absolutely not better than laser or laser/sandcaster turrets that can fire at the bad guy with a much better chance of hitting (albeit for a lot less damage) or reduce the damage your ship takes while you try to escape.

Missiles are the best weapon in the game (at least in 2017). It can launch at greater range than the laser can fire.
You can launch missiles with different Thrust at different rounds, that arrives at the same time, hopefully overloading PD.
The Smart trait can use the TL of the missile rather than your ship.
The best defence against missiles is more missiles (Fragmentation).


Take a Subbie with four triple fixed mounts, it can launch 12 missiles per round (at no cost of payload space). I'm assuming missiles can fire off-bore as they are manoeuvrable. At, say, Long range a salvo of Multi-warhead missiles launched in round 1 and a salvo of Advanced missiles launched in round 4 will both arrive in round 5. Against a ship with, say, two laser turrets and Armour 4, a few Advanced missiles will be shot down, approx. 4 Advanced and 10 Multi-warhead will hit, causing something like four 5D hits and thirty 3D hits. That's about 4 × 13.5 + 30 × 6.5 ≈ 249 points of damage, destroying any 400 Dt ship immediately.

Yes, that is MCr 1 worth of missiles, but you just destroyed a MCr 174 Patrol Corvette in one attack, with plenty of overkill; and saved a MCr 90 Subbie. I call that a good investment?

You can even do that at Distant range, but that probably takes more attacks with more expensive missiles.


Four laser turrets will not do that much damage, nor will they save you from that attack...

Lasers are versatile and can be effectively used on any target, but can't touch large Missile salvoes for damage.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

The best thing for the Subbie is the economy: four triple fixed mounts with missile racks cost no payload, and basically any idiot can launch the missiles, so no extra staterooms occupied.

Four laser turrets would cost 4 Dt, four staterooms à 4 Dt, for a total of 20 Dt less payload, and 52 Power you might not have over.


If you need to fight every month, missiles might not be the optimal choice, but then, neither is a Subbie...

 

[AnotherDilbert]

We have always added the weapon accuracy DMs for point defense but that may be wrong. (it did not come up much as far as I can remember)

It's your game.

There are plenty of other DMs you can stack on gunners, such as Aid Gunners, Expert systems, augments, tech upgrades, etc. Lasers live or die on the skill of the gunners, unlike missiles.