EDG said:

captainjack23 said:

Its a probability. It doubles the probability that any given planet will be type In.

Right... but we still need to know what that is for your comment to be meaningful.

Nah. You need to know the math....here:

The quick version:

Probability (In) = Prob(atmos codes) * Prob(pop code)

Prob of pop code 9+ = 3/36

Prob of pop code 8+ = 6/36.

So, delta (prob(pop code)) = 2,

and

Probability (In) = Prob(atmos codes) * 2(Prob(pop code)) and

= 2(Prob(atmos codes) * Prob(pop code))

I haven't finished the big ass conditional summation needed to plug numbers in yet...the MAN expects me to occasionally do some work, the bastard.

As to absolute %, I haven't run it yet....but, consider the conditional probability per subsector....that will go way up with 40 iterations even if it is a bump from 2% to 4%. And the individual probability change (in this case double) is the **minimum** change in the expected result.

Conditional probabilites are generally poorly considered or understood.

English please?

. My stats knowledge is pretty basic, I have no idea what you're talking about when you refer to "conditional probability".

"conditional" is the probability of A given B. which is equal to prob(A)* prob(B) if independent ....(and Size and pop are independent in the above example)

I find that the problem with stats is you can basically use them to say anything you like (at least, if you just present your own interpretation and don't show the original numbers for people to judge themselves).

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Dude. This is math. Statistics is what you make of it. 8) And if it fools you... you may as well blame the words in a lie if you don't question what is said.

Oh. And I

*hope* you aren't implying that I am fibbing......

A famous example (to me, at least) is in the old comuter game of harpoon. There was somthing like a 1% chance per game second of picking up a false echo of a sub when none was present: which meant that one got several false reports every minute; way more than the liklihood of detecting a sub when surfacing or damaged at minimum range. AND annoying as hell.

OT, but if it's 1% per second, shouldn't you have just got an average of 1 ping per 100 seconds? Or was it somehow cumulative?

Exactly wrong. This is a frequency assessment, not an average. It doesn't sum, per se, but it inflates.

Flip a coin twice. What are the odds that you'll get at least one head ? 75%. what are the odds you'll get at least one ping every minute ? 1-(.1^60)

The rate of multiple hits is the inverse. trust me, you get lots more than 1 per 100 secs. In fact ONLY 1 per 100 seconds is a pretty unlikely result.

To avoid casting a sleep spell on the audience, I'll answer this more fully via pm to EDG unless otherwise requested to be a pedantic boor. :wink: