The Premises of Traveller: 2. Space Travel is Unpleasant and Most Do Not Do It

[NOLATrav]

I suppose it’s fine to include robots in an economic assessment of a non-Imperial system like Tech-World but Imperial worlds not so much?

Shudusham Concords - Traveller

wiki.travellerrpg.com

Oh wait, Tech-World is an Imperial client state…

 

[Vormaerin]

I wouldn't count robots in the population under the current rules. But for the purposes of the hypothetical change to "Economic Strength" instead of pure population, I definitely would if they were functioning as a labor force.

 

[MasterGwydion]

I think if you are still going to assume the default is Pop = Econ, you might as well not bother with the semantics change? The exceptions are still exceptions. All those exceptions are cases where the population is greater than the UWP suggests. And the problem with that is the greater population should affect the Trade Codes. Ergo, the pop/econ figure needs to be changed.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but the objection to Cordan's not including the "servants" (the number of which is not specified in the more recent Trojan reach stuff in Drinax. Is there a more detailed write up in the 1e Aslan book?) was it should change the Trade Code, because they wouldn't be "Low Pop" with the significant trade modifiers that come with that.

Is your position that Cordan's economic power would remain 3 and be "Low Econ" (instead of Low Pop) despite all these extra people? Tech World has the same problem. Pop 1, but the write up says 4000 humans and a million+ robots. That's clearly Pop 3 (or 6 if you count the robots). I can't see anything about Tech-World that would make its Econ value less than a basic pop score. If anything, it should be punching above its weight.

Cordan would be punching below it's weight and Tech World above it's weight, yes. Basically, this means that only the baronial households on Cordan are contributing to it's economy, whereas on TechWorld, it has millions of robots contributing to the economy in addition to the 4,000 or so sophonts.

 

[MasterGwydion]

I suppose it’s fine to include robots in an economic assessment of a non-Imperial system like Tech-World but Imperial worlds not so much?

Shudusham Concords - Traveller

wiki.travellerrpg.com

Oh wait, Tech-World is an Imperial client state…

Why would the Concords prevent robotic labor? I have not found anything in the Concords that would prevent this within the Imperium. Nowhere does it state that the robots on Techworld violate the Concords, nor does it say the the robots are human-like.

 

[NOLATrav]

Why would the Concords prevent robotic labor? I have not found anything in the Concords that would prevent this within the Imperium. Nowhere does it state that the robots on Techworld violate the Concords, nor does it say the the robots are human-like.

Fair enough, just a bit of devil's advocate there. Robots have always felt like background fluff in the OTU because of the Concords but these days they are beginning to (or have?) take their rightful place in the game.

The real reason I mentioned it however is because I've been developing a simple economic rating for worlds, based on Pop, TL, Gov, Law, Trade Codes and surrounding starports. Having robot laborers as part of the general population is a variable I haven't accounted for so this is quite interesting.

 

[Vormaerin]

Fair enough, just a bit of devil's advocate there. Robots have always felt like background fluff in the OTU because of the Concords but these days they are beginning to (or have?) take their rightful place in the game.

The real reason I mentioned it however is because I've been developing a simple economic rating for worlds, based on Pop, TL, Gov, Law, Trade Codes and surrounding starports. Having robot laborers as part of the general population is a variable I haven't accounted for so this is quite interesting.

Mechanization of labor would likely already be factored in via TL modifiers. Population effects on economy are to no small degree a result of consumption demand. The economic impact of a small population will be less because it doesn't require the level of imports and domestic goods. Robots in the ordinary course of things are not producing domestic demand.

 

[NOLATrav]

Robots in the ordinary course of things are not producing domestic demand.

True, and they require maintenance and energy. Presumably not so much as to be a net drain.

 

[MasterGwydion]

Fair enough, just a bit of devil's advocate there. Robots have always felt like background fluff in the OTU because of the Concords but these days they are beginning to (or have?) take their rightful place in the game.

The real reason I mentioned it however is because I've been developing a simple economic rating for worlds, based on Pop, TL, Gov, Law, Trade Codes and surrounding starports. Having robot laborers as part of the general population is a variable I haven't accounted for so this is quite interesting.

I would be extremely interested in checking that out! It sounds awesome!

 

[MasterGwydion]

Mechanization of labor would likely already be factored in via TL modifiers. Population effects on economy are to no small degree a result of consumption demand. The economic impact of a small population will be less because it doesn't require the level of imports and domestic goods. Robots in the ordinary course of things are not producing domestic demand.

They could be producing a lot for export though, such as manufactories or the mining industry as two easy examples. That would have a large effect on both system as well as interstellar trade.

 

[MasterGwydion]

True, and they require maintenance and energy. Presumably not so much as to be a net drain.

Energy in Traveller is cheap and plentiful.

 

[Vormaerin]

They could be producing a lot for export though, such as manufactories or the mining industry as two easy examples. That would have a large effect on both system as well as interstellar trade.

Yes, but that would be part of the TL effect, imho. Humanoid robots would probably be the least efficient way to improve output of those fields. I don't think they are necessary to be added to both the pop value and be part of the TL modifier. Robotic factories and machinery are likely to be a standard part of why higher TLs get bonuses.

People are going to produce art, spend money on leisure activities, invent new technologies and processes, and lots of other things that add value beyond their basic labor. Unless you are talking sentient robots or you have a situation where there is a large robotic workforce in an otherwise low tech society because the Sheriff of Nottinham imported 50000 Naasirka farm droids to replace all his serfs, it should already be accounted for.

 

[MasterGwydion]

Yes, but that would be part of the TL effect, imho. Humanoid robots would probably be the least efficient way to improve output of those fields. I don't think they are necessary to be added to both the pop value and be part of the TL modifier. Robotic factories and machinery are likely to be a standard part of why higher TLs get bonuses.

People are going to produce art, spend money on leisure activities, invent new technologies and processes, and lots of other things that add value beyond their basic labor. Unless you are talking sentient robots or you have a situation where there is a large robotic workforce in an otherwise low tech society because the Sheriff of Nottinham imported 50000 Naasirka farm droids to replace all his serfs, it should already be accounted for.

Cite your sources please. I do not remember reading this anywhere.

 

[Vormaerin]

The source is Nolatrav saying they factored TL into their prototype economic rating a few posts up.

"The real reason I mentioned it however is because I've been developing a simple economic rating for worlds, based on Pop, TL, Gov, Law, Trade Codes and surrounding starports."

Or are you asking me to cite my sources about the difference between actual sentients' economic activity and that of non sentient robots? Because that's just RL. Robots are good for productivity even at our TL. But they don't produce the wide ranging creative impact on the economy that actual humans do. And, until they are sentient, they won't do so. A droid is no more population than a self driving car, which is also a robot.

The exception would be, as I mentioned, when you don't have a tech level to support robotic industry and are using droids as if they were human manual laborers. Though they still wouldn't be as economically valuable as sentients overall because of how narrow their output is.

 

[MasterGwydion]

The source is Nolatrav saying they factored TL into their prototype economic rating a few posts up.

"The real reason I mentioned it however is because I've been developing a simple economic rating for worlds, based on Pop, TL, Gov, Law, Trade Codes and surrounding starports."

Or are you asking me to cite my sources about the difference between actual sentients' economic activity and that of non sentient robots? Because that's just RL. Robots are good for productivity even at our TL. But they don't produce the wide ranging creative impact on the economy that actual humans do. And, until they are sentient, they won't do so. A droid is no more population than a self driving car, which is also a robot.

The exception would be, as I mentioned, when you don't have a tech level to support robotic industry and are using droids as if they were human manual laborers. Though they still wouldn't be as economically valuable as sentients overall because of how narrow their output is.

Nola's thing is homebrew. It sounds cool, and I may totally want to incorporate his ideas into MTU.

I am confused about your wide-ranging creative impact? What is that?

In Mongoose Traveller, according to HG under the Space Station creation rules, it gives rules for mining, refining, and manufacturing. Part of these rules are crew requirements which can be taken over by non-sentient robots. Therefore, a human creates the design for said widget, then however many robots build said widget in quantity. I usually replace them on a 1 robot required for each crew member replaced, eventhough realistically, the robots could work 18-20 hours per day instead of 8 or so. (according to the Robot Handbook)

Where in the rules is this wide-ranging creative impact that you are discussing? If it is a homebrew that you use, what are the mathematical mechanics of how your system works?

 

[Vormaerin]

It is not a formal system. It is thoughts based on what NolaTrav mentioned and the idea of equating Pop with Economic impact.

10 humans will produce more economic activity IRL than just their job. Because sentients do more than just their job. They have hobbies, they have side gigs, they produce art, etc. Non Sentient robots do not replace all that economic activity, though they can certainly replace workers.

But robots and equivalent automation are a significant part of what makes TL matter economically. You can make more cars with a high TL factory because it's fully automated and has machines (aka robots) doing large amounts or all of the tasks. If you strip the robots out of the TL to count as Pop, then you need to reduce the impact of TL in your system, but not count robots as equal to people. Because they aren't economically equivalent in the larger picture.

 

[MasterGwydion]

It is not a formal system. It is thoughts based on what NolaTrav mentioned and the idea of equating Pop with Economic impact.

10 humans will produce more economic activity IRL than just their job. Because sentients do more than just their job. They have hobbies, they have side gigs, they produce art, etc. Non Sentient robots do not replace all that economic activity, though they can certainly replace workers.

But robots and equivalent automation are a significant part of what makes TL matter economically. You can make more cars with a high TL factory because it's fully automated and has machines (aka robots) doing large amounts or all of the tasks. If you strip the robots out of the TL to count as Pop, then you need to reduce the impact of TL in your system, but not count robots as equal to people. Because they aren't economically equivalent in the larger picture.

So robots do not contribute to the demand side of the equation? Is that what you mean? They do require maintenance, which requires spare parts. They require power generation which requires power plants and fabrication facilities, not to mention, lubricants, and different programming for each of them. Robotic labor is the first step to becoming a post-scarcity society. The second step is cheap and clean power generation to make robots more economically viable than using human labor.

Side gigs make up less than 10% of the current US Laborforce. The worldwide art and creative economies combined only account for 2.25 trillion dollars out of a global economy of 85 trillion dollars.

Therefore, mathematically, your hypothesis is false based on the latest available data. If you want to believe that humans are magical IYTU, that is fine, but it is not backed up by the numbers.

 

[Sigtrygg]

So your ideal economy would be one where robots build stuff to maintain and make more robots...
do the robot owners sit back and enjoy unlimited wealth and free time, or did the robots long since replace them.

 

[Vormaerin]

So when you calculate the population, you are going to count all the self driving cars? Those are robots. The current day heavily automated factories? Those are robots. Non sentient robots are technology. IF you are factoring TL into your ECON value, as Nolatrav is, then that is where they should be factored in.

I have a robot that sweeps my house for me. Should I be claiming a household of two?

 

[Geir]

I have a robot that sweeps my house for me. Should I be claiming a household of two?

Just don't claim it as a dependent on your tax form.

You should include the capabilities that come with any tech level as part of the 'progress' whether that comes from steam engines, electricity, or robots. One of the flaws of a straight T4/5-style RU calculation is that it doesn't take TL into account at all (another flaw is negative efficiency - I kind of get why it was done, but it has, um, marginal utility).

In the new WBH, determining the GWP includes the TL as a straight modifier (multiply by TL ÷ 10, with TL 0 treated as TL 0.5 - I suspect it should really be more of an exponential scale, but that would be too much variation for the milieu).

Robots are not accounted for directly, but you could use the ratio of robots to people (assuming they are not people here) as a factor in the world's Efficiency rating - which impacts both RU and my GWP numbers. (But Tech-World has an Efficiency of -1, so I don't know what is going on there, other than random number generation).

And to be clear, I brought Cordan up as an example of the population number being misleading and represented as other than it was. I didn't say I approved of it. If you go look at Wikipedia (or the CIA fact sheets) at countries with a very high 'guest worker' to citizen ratio (UAE and Kuwait being clear examples), the population figures include all residents, citizens or not. Otherwise all stats, from GDP to population density, would become meaningless.

 

[phavoc]

So your ideal economy would be one where robots build stuff to maintain and make more robots...
do the robot owners sit back and enjoy unlimited wealth and free time, or did the robots long since replace them.

Good question! We know from some of the mining and production rules (especially when they get into the nanites) that essentially is what's happening. You get very large productivity numbers - so large that trade between systems for anything but the most exotic of trade goods becomes more or less useless. One could simply take a factory ship, park it in an asteroid belt and churn out endless goods and credits. The only reason to move to another system would be exhausting a belt (but by then you'd be able to use the same tech and consume a planet/moon and get the same results.

This is one of those areas that if you look under the hood it's not a good thing. Though, in the games defense, we literally have nothing but idle speculation to base any of it on. The idea of shipping in factories instead of goods to a star system is a tried and true trope (ex - Imperial Autonetics that Imperial Trader Bury does in Niven & Pournelles The Mote in God's Eye book, and in other Pournelle books as well).