There has been a bit of discusson both here and on the FC site about ship stats and weapon stats just recently. Seeing as it combined my love of the games, stats and programming I put together a damage simulator (for direct weapons anyway) in order to get a more accurate picture of how good the weapons are in various scenarios.
Clearly it is looking at things from a fairly idealistic point of view, and doesn't account for how people actually play, terrain usage, or ships shooting back at each other, range differences affecting who shoots in different brackets etc. Nor whether people think it does or does not 'feel' right (that is something that will always be subjective). But at least I can now say that weapon X in scenario Y averages the following.
But isn't that easy to do in your head? Up to a point yes, but this accounts for pretty much everything to do with crits affecting survivability, including escalation, repair, crew check mods, extra damage, shield crits, loss of damcon, plain old exploding at delithium 6 etc. It also means I can get better idea of just how much things like Klingon shields, shield boost, evasive, close blast doors, all hands on deck can affect different weapons.
As there has been a lot discussion on disrupters vs photons lately here are some stats for them.
Target is a kzinti NCA with 24 shield and 24 hull. It will repair either hightest level crit at the end of the turn or one with escalation if there is one (repair is one of those harder things to do - different people may have different ways of approaching this). It doesn't shoot back or move it is just a target.
First, whilst not a 1 vs 1 type of game, The stats for 1 cruiser with 4 heavy weapons being used at their respective long range over 14 turns (only showing a few of those turns). All other weapons assumed tied up defending vs drones or what ever. NB this does take account of the photon only firing every other turn whilst disrupters fire every turn even though I haven't shown every turns results.
The result shows total average damage, shield damage, hull damage and crit levels as well as kill chance. Note that these are not just what the weapon itself does, but includes crits, so for example shield damage includes the affect of shield loss from shield crits, and hull hits include extra damage from crits.
4 disrupters:
1:- 4.03 damage, 2.91 to shield, 1.12 to hull, 0.16 Crit levels taken, 0.00% kill chance
3:- 11.83 damage, 8.42 to shield, 3.40 to hull, 0.39 Crit levels taken, 0.02% kill chance
5:- 19.54 damage, 13.79 to shield, 5.75 to hull, 0.56 Crit levels taken, 0.22% kill chance
7:- 27.22 damage, 18.70 to shield, 8.52 to hull, 0.77 Crit levels taken, 0.99% kill chance
9:- 34.67 damage, 21.98 to shield, 12.68 to hull, 1.18 Crit levels taken, 4.11% kill chance
14:- 48.37 damage, 23.86 to shield, 24.51 to hull, 2.53 Crit levels taken, 75.41% kill chance
4 Photons
1:- 7.34 damage, 4.35 to shield, 2.99 to hull, 0.86 Crit levels taken, 0.44% kill chance
3:- 15.21 damage, 8.48 to shield, 6.73 to hull, 1.78 Crit levels taken, 4.60% kill chance
5:- 22.71 damage, 11.98 to shield, 10.72 to hull, 2.72 Crit levels taken, 13.46% kill chance
7:- 29.41 damage, 14.87 to shield, 14.55 to hull, 3.59 Crit levels taken, 24.79% kill chance
9:- 35.00 damage, 17.06 to shield, 17.94 to hull, 4.37 Crit levels taken, 36.84% kill chance
14:- 43.31 damage, 19.75 to shield, 23.56 to hull, 5.61 Crit levels taken, 62.73% kill chance
The photon clearly has a lead in kill rate until very late on when the Kzinti has run out of shield and hull vs the disrupter. The photon is inflicting quite a good number more crits, even after the target has repaired some, and more of its damage is hull not shields, in fact a chunk of the shield damage shown is due to shield crits not actual shield hits. On the whole though both weapons are not that different in effect over time. Just like FC the photons have the fluke factor which may kill quick, or prevent you ever getting a kill.
The effect of various defenses in this 1 vs 1 scenario? Just showing the last turn (14) here.
Disrupters vs an average 7 shield boost per turn
14:- 18.15 damage, 1.97 to shield, 16.18 to hull, 1.10 Crit levels taken, 11.96% kill chance
Disrupters vs blast doors each turn
14:- 43.32 damage, 23.93 to shield, 19.39 to hull, 3.12 Crit levels taken, 28.85% kill chance
Disrupters vs all hands on deck each turn
14:- 47.86 damage, 23.91 to shield, 23.95 to hull, 0.46 Crit levels taken, 71.75% kill chance
Disrupters vs evasive rolls, assuming average Kzinti crew, so about half attempts succeed.
14:- 43.21 damage, 22.92 to shield, 20.29 to hull, 1.76 Crit levels taken, 36.03% kill chance
At least when there are not many disrupters firing then Shield boost provides huge protection, Blast doors prevent just enough hull damage within this time frame to make a big difference, but a couple more turns will see the kill rate rocket. Evasive, even though it isn't a sure thing is again making a good difference, but again the target is generally close to dead and hasn't got long for this life. All hands in deck is clearly pointless in comparison to the others, Disrupters don't dish out the crits that need repairing.
Photons vs an avergae 7 shield boost per turn
14:- 31.45 damage, 9.79 to shield, 21.66 to hull, 5.02 Crit levels taken, 55.99% kill chance
Photons vs blast doors
14:- 39.61 damage, 20.48 to shield, 19.14 to hull, 6.48 Crit levels taken, 51.23% kill chance
Photons vs hand on deck
14:- 40.43 damage, 19.14 to shield, 21.29 to hull, 1.67 Crit levels taken, 47.12% kill chance
Photons vs evasive
14:- 38.34 damage, 16.06 to shield, 22.28 to hull, 5.22 Crit levels taken, 58.01% kill chance
The first thing that is noticeable is that few defenses make a big difference to the photons, All hands on deck is the best in this case, the amount of crits coming in makes keeping on top them the best way of stopping all the extra damage that comes in from the higher levels.
But this game is a fleet level game, multi ships firing at a target each turn are a more useful thing to look at.
So the same again, but this time with 3 ships firing 4 heavies each at long range (again I'm leaving out phasers for the time being). Also just looking at a more reasonable 5 turns.
3 disrupter ships
1:- 11.84 damage, 8.44 to shield, 3.41 to hull, 0.51 Crit levels taken, 0.00% kill chance
3:- 34.95 damage, 22.02 to shield, 12.93 to hull, 1.87 Crit levels taken, 4.31% kill chance
5:- 53.31 damage, 23.92 to shield, 29.38 to hull, 4.59 Crit levels taken, 88.61% kill chance
3 Photon ships
1:- 21.57 damage, 11.61 to shield, 9.96 to hull, 2.87 Crit levels taken, 7.72% kill chance
3:- 42.60 damage, 18.97 to shield, 23.63 to hull, 6.36 Crit levels taken, 44.10% kill chance
5:- 55.32 damage, 21.54 to shield, 33.78 to hull, 8.91 Crit levels taken, 80.89% kill chance
Photons seem to have an egde all other things being equal (which they are not of course). Ultimatley they both end up with a kill chance in the 80s but the Photons have decent chances of killing a lot earlier.
And again against various defenses?
Disrupters vs an average 7 shield boost per turn
5:- 29.02 damage, 10.98 to shield, 18.03 to hull, 2.37 Crit levels taken, 19.83% kill chance
Disrupters vs blast doors each turn
5:- 47.25 damage, 23.97 to shield, 23.27 to hull, 5.51 Crit levels taken, 47.75% kill chance
Disrupters vs all hands on deck each turn
5:- 52.09 damage, 23.94 to shield, 28.15 to hull, 1.29 Crit levels taken, 86.64% kill chance
Disrupters vs evasive rolls, assuming average Kzinti crew, so about half attempts succeed.
5:- 47.19 damage, 23.13 to shield, 24.06 to hull, 3.53 Crit levels taken, 54.72% kill chance
Again boost shield was the stand out defense, even though there were less turns for it to add up.
Photons vs an avergae 7 shield boost per turn
5:- 44.01 damage, 14.81 to shield, 29.20 to hull, 7.74 Crit levels taken, 70.73% kill chance
Photons vs blast doors
5:- 50.13 damage, 22.24 to shield, 27.89 to hull, 10.20 Crit levels taken, 65.53% kill chance
Photons vs hand on deck
5:- 52.21 damage, 21.18 to shield, 31.03 to hull, 4.54 Crit levels taken, 75.31% kill chance
Photons vs evasive
5:- 48.58 damage, 18.20 to shield, 30.38 to hull, 8.03 Crit levels taken, 73.18% kill chance
Again the Photons are not ultimately that badly affected by any defense, though hand on deck is noticably less useful.
Maybe more when I have had some dinner..
PS although I printed the results to 2 DP, don't think that they are really that accurate, this is a sim being run a few hundred thousand times, there is going to be a small amount of variance eavh time it is run.
Clearly it is looking at things from a fairly idealistic point of view, and doesn't account for how people actually play, terrain usage, or ships shooting back at each other, range differences affecting who shoots in different brackets etc. Nor whether people think it does or does not 'feel' right (that is something that will always be subjective). But at least I can now say that weapon X in scenario Y averages the following.
But isn't that easy to do in your head? Up to a point yes, but this accounts for pretty much everything to do with crits affecting survivability, including escalation, repair, crew check mods, extra damage, shield crits, loss of damcon, plain old exploding at delithium 6 etc. It also means I can get better idea of just how much things like Klingon shields, shield boost, evasive, close blast doors, all hands on deck can affect different weapons.
As there has been a lot discussion on disrupters vs photons lately here are some stats for them.
Target is a kzinti NCA with 24 shield and 24 hull. It will repair either hightest level crit at the end of the turn or one with escalation if there is one (repair is one of those harder things to do - different people may have different ways of approaching this). It doesn't shoot back or move it is just a target.
First, whilst not a 1 vs 1 type of game, The stats for 1 cruiser with 4 heavy weapons being used at their respective long range over 14 turns (only showing a few of those turns). All other weapons assumed tied up defending vs drones or what ever. NB this does take account of the photon only firing every other turn whilst disrupters fire every turn even though I haven't shown every turns results.
The result shows total average damage, shield damage, hull damage and crit levels as well as kill chance. Note that these are not just what the weapon itself does, but includes crits, so for example shield damage includes the affect of shield loss from shield crits, and hull hits include extra damage from crits.
4 disrupters:
1:- 4.03 damage, 2.91 to shield, 1.12 to hull, 0.16 Crit levels taken, 0.00% kill chance
3:- 11.83 damage, 8.42 to shield, 3.40 to hull, 0.39 Crit levels taken, 0.02% kill chance
5:- 19.54 damage, 13.79 to shield, 5.75 to hull, 0.56 Crit levels taken, 0.22% kill chance
7:- 27.22 damage, 18.70 to shield, 8.52 to hull, 0.77 Crit levels taken, 0.99% kill chance
9:- 34.67 damage, 21.98 to shield, 12.68 to hull, 1.18 Crit levels taken, 4.11% kill chance
14:- 48.37 damage, 23.86 to shield, 24.51 to hull, 2.53 Crit levels taken, 75.41% kill chance
4 Photons
1:- 7.34 damage, 4.35 to shield, 2.99 to hull, 0.86 Crit levels taken, 0.44% kill chance
3:- 15.21 damage, 8.48 to shield, 6.73 to hull, 1.78 Crit levels taken, 4.60% kill chance
5:- 22.71 damage, 11.98 to shield, 10.72 to hull, 2.72 Crit levels taken, 13.46% kill chance
7:- 29.41 damage, 14.87 to shield, 14.55 to hull, 3.59 Crit levels taken, 24.79% kill chance
9:- 35.00 damage, 17.06 to shield, 17.94 to hull, 4.37 Crit levels taken, 36.84% kill chance
14:- 43.31 damage, 19.75 to shield, 23.56 to hull, 5.61 Crit levels taken, 62.73% kill chance
The photon clearly has a lead in kill rate until very late on when the Kzinti has run out of shield and hull vs the disrupter. The photon is inflicting quite a good number more crits, even after the target has repaired some, and more of its damage is hull not shields, in fact a chunk of the shield damage shown is due to shield crits not actual shield hits. On the whole though both weapons are not that different in effect over time. Just like FC the photons have the fluke factor which may kill quick, or prevent you ever getting a kill.
The effect of various defenses in this 1 vs 1 scenario? Just showing the last turn (14) here.
Disrupters vs an average 7 shield boost per turn
14:- 18.15 damage, 1.97 to shield, 16.18 to hull, 1.10 Crit levels taken, 11.96% kill chance
Disrupters vs blast doors each turn
14:- 43.32 damage, 23.93 to shield, 19.39 to hull, 3.12 Crit levels taken, 28.85% kill chance
Disrupters vs all hands on deck each turn
14:- 47.86 damage, 23.91 to shield, 23.95 to hull, 0.46 Crit levels taken, 71.75% kill chance
Disrupters vs evasive rolls, assuming average Kzinti crew, so about half attempts succeed.
14:- 43.21 damage, 22.92 to shield, 20.29 to hull, 1.76 Crit levels taken, 36.03% kill chance
At least when there are not many disrupters firing then Shield boost provides huge protection, Blast doors prevent just enough hull damage within this time frame to make a big difference, but a couple more turns will see the kill rate rocket. Evasive, even though it isn't a sure thing is again making a good difference, but again the target is generally close to dead and hasn't got long for this life. All hands in deck is clearly pointless in comparison to the others, Disrupters don't dish out the crits that need repairing.
Photons vs an avergae 7 shield boost per turn
14:- 31.45 damage, 9.79 to shield, 21.66 to hull, 5.02 Crit levels taken, 55.99% kill chance
Photons vs blast doors
14:- 39.61 damage, 20.48 to shield, 19.14 to hull, 6.48 Crit levels taken, 51.23% kill chance
Photons vs hand on deck
14:- 40.43 damage, 19.14 to shield, 21.29 to hull, 1.67 Crit levels taken, 47.12% kill chance
Photons vs evasive
14:- 38.34 damage, 16.06 to shield, 22.28 to hull, 5.22 Crit levels taken, 58.01% kill chance
The first thing that is noticeable is that few defenses make a big difference to the photons, All hands on deck is the best in this case, the amount of crits coming in makes keeping on top them the best way of stopping all the extra damage that comes in from the higher levels.
But this game is a fleet level game, multi ships firing at a target each turn are a more useful thing to look at.
So the same again, but this time with 3 ships firing 4 heavies each at long range (again I'm leaving out phasers for the time being). Also just looking at a more reasonable 5 turns.
3 disrupter ships
1:- 11.84 damage, 8.44 to shield, 3.41 to hull, 0.51 Crit levels taken, 0.00% kill chance
3:- 34.95 damage, 22.02 to shield, 12.93 to hull, 1.87 Crit levels taken, 4.31% kill chance
5:- 53.31 damage, 23.92 to shield, 29.38 to hull, 4.59 Crit levels taken, 88.61% kill chance
3 Photon ships
1:- 21.57 damage, 11.61 to shield, 9.96 to hull, 2.87 Crit levels taken, 7.72% kill chance
3:- 42.60 damage, 18.97 to shield, 23.63 to hull, 6.36 Crit levels taken, 44.10% kill chance
5:- 55.32 damage, 21.54 to shield, 33.78 to hull, 8.91 Crit levels taken, 80.89% kill chance
Photons seem to have an egde all other things being equal (which they are not of course). Ultimatley they both end up with a kill chance in the 80s but the Photons have decent chances of killing a lot earlier.
And again against various defenses?
Disrupters vs an average 7 shield boost per turn
5:- 29.02 damage, 10.98 to shield, 18.03 to hull, 2.37 Crit levels taken, 19.83% kill chance
Disrupters vs blast doors each turn
5:- 47.25 damage, 23.97 to shield, 23.27 to hull, 5.51 Crit levels taken, 47.75% kill chance
Disrupters vs all hands on deck each turn
5:- 52.09 damage, 23.94 to shield, 28.15 to hull, 1.29 Crit levels taken, 86.64% kill chance
Disrupters vs evasive rolls, assuming average Kzinti crew, so about half attempts succeed.
5:- 47.19 damage, 23.13 to shield, 24.06 to hull, 3.53 Crit levels taken, 54.72% kill chance
Again boost shield was the stand out defense, even though there were less turns for it to add up.
Photons vs an avergae 7 shield boost per turn
5:- 44.01 damage, 14.81 to shield, 29.20 to hull, 7.74 Crit levels taken, 70.73% kill chance
Photons vs blast doors
5:- 50.13 damage, 22.24 to shield, 27.89 to hull, 10.20 Crit levels taken, 65.53% kill chance
Photons vs hand on deck
5:- 52.21 damage, 21.18 to shield, 31.03 to hull, 4.54 Crit levels taken, 75.31% kill chance
Photons vs evasive
5:- 48.58 damage, 18.20 to shield, 30.38 to hull, 8.03 Crit levels taken, 73.18% kill chance
Again the Photons are not ultimately that badly affected by any defense, though hand on deck is noticably less useful.
Maybe more when I have had some dinner..
PS although I printed the results to 2 DP, don't think that they are really that accurate, this is a sim being run a few hundred thousand times, there is going to be a small amount of variance eavh time it is run.