locarno24 said:
Also, just as an observation, 25% sounds a touch high.
I thought so too so I went to the other thread which I had stopped following to see whats what.
And yes, It is way high, as I will follow up on, but first I'll explain how I think the person got the figure. Please excuse and correct me if I am making any of the wrong assumptions.
Based on rules for jumping on page 141,
Roll 2d6 and add the following DMs. If the result is 0 or less, the ship misjumps (see below). If the result is 8+ the Jump is accurate. Any other result is an inaccurate Jump (which is only a minor setback).
I think the only DM allotted is for the Engineering skill where a Engineering(Jump) 2 was used. Thus if one rolled under a six there would be an inaccurate jump. I believe 2d6 odds of rolling a 5 or less is around 27%. Is that close to how the figure was arrived at? Perhaps the poster will chime in.
Just as an FYI while one could just say the average person is a DM+0, personally when I do rough estimates I often assume that people go into careers where they have a natural ability. What I'm getting at is does the guy with +1 DM INT and -1DM Dex become an athlete or a an Engineer? So I typically assume people have a +1DM for the characteristic needed in the skill check for these type of throw some numbers together average situation calculations.
But, for this following discussion, I'm willing to adhere to the suggested +2 DM for skill and a characteristic +0 DM.
First, one problem is that the rules on page 141 for Jump are not clear as to what characteristic to use or the task difficulty or how long it takes. So the poster, I'm assuming, either made a GM decision that the difficulty is average or decided that because no task difficulty DM was specified it should be 0. This is understandable but I believe it is an error.
As i said, there is no timing listed and also there is no characteristic listed for the task. The simple fact is that there is no proper task description on page 141. Like many things, the book has rules in varied locations. Perhaps because this was already covered on page 54 it was decided there was no need to repeat themselves. The detailed task from page 54 is
Making a Jump: Intelligence, 10–60 minutes, Routine (+2).
Again, I don't fault the poster for doing the best they could with the information provided on page 141 and missing this.
However, this results in a +2DM for skill, +0DM for characteristic, +0DM for timing, +2DM for task difficulty. A +4 DM. This alone brings the chance from around 27% to around 8%.
Another thing I like to point out for these type of skill calculations is wouldn't for just 1,450Cr
(*1) there be a computer with the appropriate Expert program running to aid the person? I think so. That's another +1 DM. Now I believe the odds go down to around 3%. This may still be high to some. 3 out of every 100 ships for a busy system... Keep in mind though that with 2d6 this is the lowest chance without turning into a 0% chance.
Next, none of the DM's on page 141 were used. I agree with not using
–2 per Jump drive hit
–2 for using Unrefined fuel
–8 if still within the hundred-diameter limit
for a calculation of typical travel.
But
+ the Effect of the divert power Engineer check
is worthy of discussion.
Based on the rules
If insufficient power is available the Jump drive cannot be activated.
So the only way a jump task is made is if the Divert Power check succeeds. How often would the Divert Power check succeed and the effect be 0?
That is beyond my math skill but its worth noting that whatever that probability is, it lowers overall probability. Possibly by a considerable amount.
(*1) You can ask if you don't know how I came up with that figure.
