Klaus Kipling said:
To achieve an 18 on 3d6 is 1 in 6 x 6 x 6, or 1 in 216, or 0.46%.
Therefore, statistically, in order to guarantee a max damage hit you will need over 200 troops firing that assault rifle. In actual fact, you would need 216.
If you still think I'm exaggerating, please prove to me mathematically how I am.
This following assumption may be what is wrong.
Klaus Kipling said:
Making arbitrary claims about DM's and Effect can't be statistically tested, as there are as many possible negative DM's as there are possible positive. Statistically they cancel each other out.
First, since it is stated that the DM's and Effect can't be statistically tested, how can you make the assumption that they offset? Maybe statistically the chance for positive DM's occurs more often. Maybe it's negative DM's. Just because you can't figure out how to calculate it.... I'm no math wizz to be able to give the exact figures, but, to me, I believe this isn't something you can just sweep under the rug and ignore.
Lets take a situation where the results are known better. Every roll of six is offset by a roll of one statistically so there is no need to ever roll dice, just make the result 3.5 x the # of dice?
Don't know if that example helps or not. I'm trying to illustrate
1) that the results might never (ever see a die with a 3.5 on it?) be the average so all results need to be considered (a roll of 7 occurs less than 17% of the time on two dice)
2) If the outcome is always known, the game would be quite boring. The unexpected extremes can make the game interesting.
Next, unless the combatant is a fool, they know it will be hard to take out someone in battledress so they will most likely not engage them unless they have 'the upper hand'. Something like waiting till the battledress person is out in the open without cover while the shooter(s) are in cover taking careful aim before ambushing.
For my own amusement, I'm going to use this example and the following assumptions
Wait to attack until Battledress wearer is
In the open (cover DM 0)
Not moving quickly (<10meters = DM 0)
Environment is not optimum, dark or foggy or extreme, but no combination of negative effect (-1 DM)
Range is optimal (0 DM)
weapon = AutoRifle 3d6 damage Auto 4
Using burst fire (+4 to damage)
Standard ammo
Sights (+1 DM)
Max aiming is +6DM
Ambush gives attackers initiative
Skill level 2, no Dex DM
So, attacker gets +2(skill) +0(dex) +6(aim) +1(sights) -0(cover) -0(movement) -1(dodge) -1(environment) -0(range) -0(target stance) for +7
An 'average' roll to hit of 7 (7(roll)+7(DM's)=14) would result in an effect of 6.
For damage, lets use that average of 3.5 per die I spoke of earlier and say damage = 3.5+3.5+3.5(roll) + 4(burst) +6(effect) = 20.5
So for each shooter, 2.5 points of damage gets through the armor?
Does any of this make sense?
So how many attackers would be needed? With average stats, 2 characteristics would be 14 points. 14/2.5 = 6 guys to take out someone in battledress in an ambush in one round, on 'average'?
If it is not an ambush and the attackers only get one minor action for aiming, the results are quite different with an average damage of zero.
So, taking just the averages (which I already said is nowhere near the absolute result) you get a single battledress being taken out in a well organized and timed ambush of 6 but also battledress being very impervious when not being ambushed. I kinda like those 'average' results.
This also explains why some people think battledress is too weak (able to be taken out in one round [with certain calculations]) while others think it is too strong (walking around impervious [with certain calculations]).