DFW said:
Not a problem. There are a very small amount of variables.
My point was that the defending fleet can make every calculation that any attacking fleet can make, and maximize it's own forces to watch the most likely paths.
And utilize the three most important things about real estate - Location, Location, Location.
That will apply to selecting depot locations as well - not only in what star systems are selected, but where within those star systems those bases are located. For example, putting an orbital base just outside the stars 100d limit effectively "blocks" half the space you have to watch. Systems that happen to have gas giants sitting just outside the star's 100d limits would be particularly attractive, as you can place your base within or between the shadow of both, and have much narrow corridors to watch.
It is, in fact, the existance of the jump shadows that provides "terrain" - not the planets, moons and stars themselves, because the jump shadow multiplies their effective volumes.
Departing position is infinite. (cut down if the planets orbit is within the stars j-shadow). Approach to a planet can be from any direction (spherical) and thus is an IMMENSE amount of space. You'd have to have thousands of picket ships to guard against high velocity approaches to even a large planet like Earth. Do the math on what the velocity of a ship after only 6 hours of 6G accel (~1300km/sec) and how fast it traverses the 100D limit of a size 8 world. (~16 minutes)
Sure, if you're talking strictly trying to use picket ships as a defense within the defended system, and you're not taking into account that a base will likely use both planetary and stellar jump shadows to create corridors.
Furthermore "spy" vessel in a system 4 parsecs away, upon seeing a fleet accelerating at 6G for 4 hours along a certain vector can jump to the depot system and warn them an attack may be on it's way, and transmit fleet composition, last known speed and vector. Based on that info, the most likely incoming vecotrs can be calculated, and ships and defenses can begin manuevering into position. The advance warning may be only minutes, or it could be hours. Sure, it may turn out to be nothing, but the occassional false alarm is not only better than the alternative, it works as training, too.
kristof65 said:
Likewise, all the systems within 6 parsecs can be watched with small patrol vessels ...
Only if you control those systems.
So you're saying that a couple of 100 to 400 ton ships sitting well above the orbital plane using passive sensors will always be detected and run out of the system? You said it yourself - space is big. A couple of small, non-manuevering patrol vessels are much, much less likely to be detected than a manuevering fleet.