How can pirates work?

[kristof65]

Would there even be legions of amateur astronomers in a society where space travel is routine and if you want to study (nearby) phenomena you'd be able to get up close and personal in a ship?

I would say "yes", for the reason I mentioned above.

While there may be better access to stellar phenomenon via space ships, not everyone will have that access. So you'll have a lot people who will be interested in it because they want to go there.

 

[Supplement Four]

Following my own suggestion, a pirate thread labeled as such.

The questoin is how can large scale piracy even exist?

Some of the points against it.

1. Lots and lots of imperial warships floating about. Particularly on the borders where there are other states.

It's quite simple, really.

A star system is quite large. It takes multiple hours/days to use the M-Drive to move from world to world. Micro-Jump still takes a week.

A starport could pick up a distress call (moving at the speed of light) and actually "see" (hear? watch on sensor readings?) pirates attack a civie ship, at almost real time (given the time difference due to distance). But, what can they do about it?

If there is no ship that can assist the victims close by, all everybody can do is watch.

Even if an Imperial warship is in-system, it's got to be close to the attack in order to be able to stop the pirates.



Take, for example, a fairly high tech system with a Class A starport. I'm not sure how sensors are regarded in MGT, but in CT, just about every ship in the system can be detected easily. So, all the plots are known.

Our Class A starport "sees" just about every ship in the system, coming or going.

Well, a civie ship, having just jumped in-system, makes its way to the local gas giant in order to skim fuel. The GG is 1.2 days (at 1G) to the Class A starport at the main world (the ship's ultimate destination to drop off cargo, refit, and reload).

There is an Imperial Naval cutter in the system, but its patrol has taken it far outsystem, to the system's fifth orbit.

There are two other civie ships at the GG when the newest civie ship arrives. This is when the two ships already at the GG show their true colors, as corsairs, and jump the new civie ship.

It takes very little time for the starport to be alerted (the Signal GK travelling at the speed of light, spreading the distress signal). It only takes a little while longer for the IN cutter to be aware of the attack.

But, what can either do about the attack but watch?

Any ship at the starport is over a day away (at 1G), and still multiple hours away at 3G or so.

During that time, the pirates attack their prey for a couple of hours (15 min. Book 2 space combat rounds), then spend a couple of hours transferring cargo...and all this takes place with the IN cutter and Class A starport watching.



Piracy is definitely viable. It's the pirates unloading the cargo and going undetected until their prey arrives that's the issue.

 

[zozotroll]

But why go to the GG? Thats where the pirates hang out. Sure the fuel is cheap, but is that worth getting your throat cut? Just about every breakdown I have seen about how piracy can be viable points out how much more valuable a ship is than almost any cargo.


And what is that cutter doing way out on the 5th orbit? What is out there to protect? One of my big objections is about either the Navy or the merchants acting stupid. If pirates are very common, then going any farther than d100 than you have to is stupid, likely terminaly so.

So how many really stupid, really sucesful merchants do you have in your game?

 

[kristof65]

But why go to the GG? Thats where the pirates hang out. Sure the fuel is cheap, but is that worth getting your throat cut? Just about every breakdown I have seen about how piracy can be viable points out how much more valuable a ship is than almost any cargo.

There can be a lot of reasons to go to a GG for fuel - only source, perhaps.

As for the economics of it, starships themselves are (or should be)traceable, and it's probable that pirates who leave a ship and (mostly) living crew behind are less likely to be hunted down with extreme prejudice.

And what is that cutter doing way out on the 5th orbit? What is out there to protect? One of my big objections is about either the Navy or the merchants acting stupid. If pirates are very common, then going any farther than d100 than you have to is stupid, likely terminaly so.

So how many really stupid, really sucesful merchants do you have in your game?

I don't think Supplement's example was really the best, but he has a point. The distance's involved are going to take a while to travel.

Take the Regina system as outlined in CT Book 6 Scouts (because that's the only one I have canonical data about at the moment.) Regina orbits a large GG, which has a diameter of about 150,000 km. Regina's orbit is at approximately 4 million km, which means it's inside the GG's 100d limit, or an 11 million km distance to travel - at a minimum. Depending on the trajectory needed for jump to another world, the ship might have to proceed to the other side of the GG, or a possible trip of 19 million km.

For a Free Trader, that's nearly an 18 hour trip minimum.

Now consider the following numbers. If the 100d limit of that gas giant was a sphere of which we could measure the surface area, it's surface area would be 2.8 quadrillion (that's 2.826 x 1015) square kilometers. Even if you have 10,000 System Defence Boats patrolling that area, each one is patrolling an area of 282 billion sq km, or a 'square' roughly 500 km per side. With 10,000 SDBs patrolling that area, you still have an approximate response time of up to an hour to every point in the sphere.

But square kilometers are misleading, since space is 3d - lets look at volume. A better way to patrol that area is to have the patrol ships zig zag the area in between the 90d and 100d limit. That still leaves a lot of space to cover - 3.8 x 1021 cubic kilometers. Given enough patrol vessels, controlled traffic lanes, etc, response times in most areas can probably be under an hour, but there will be large regions where the reponse times will be 3-4 hours or even more, even at thrust 6.

None of that even takes into account the vectors of the patrol ships themselves - you could easily have situations where the physically closest patrol ship isn't the one able to get their quickest because of they have to reverse course.

Regina is a busy, well patrolled planet with the sub-sector capital and a military base. It's highly unlikely that any pirate attacks would happen there, but you can see that under the right conditions, a pirate presented the right ship in the right place at the right time would have time before the patrol ships could arrive.

A more backwater system where the primary world is also a moon of a GG would present far more opportunities to the potential pirate - less traffic, fewer patrol ships, and possibly slower patrol ships all add up to longer response times.

The real trick to piracy isn't the ability to actually make the attack. It's the abiliy to get away with it, since it's most likely that any sort of attack is going to have all sorts of 'helpless' witnesses.

 

[lurker]

... With the way bureacracy is, no one is going to check to make sure every patrol or police ship in a system is where they are suppose to be ...

Bureaucracy varies from system to system. So do other variables. An oppressive government that does not allow visitors and has a high law level and high tech level would be much more likely to find pirates or any incoming ship than a world with low law level, low tech, and no organized government.

 

[lurker]

Just had this thought. A system has had trouble with pirates so they notify all merchants coming and going and also make sure all the nearby systems they normally trade with are well informed of:

1) Scheduled jump times and locations for incoming trade ships. There will be local forces waiting for you.

2) Scheduled times for outgoing ships and they will have escort.

3) Scheduled times when the local forces will patrol the gas giant.

I see this as being a possible standard operating procedure for systems with regular trade traffic.

You probably would not advertise the location of your forces if you have enemies and a risk of attack.

 

[kristof65]

1) Scheduled jump times and locations for incoming trade ships. There will be local forces waiting for you.

This is going to be downright impossible, for many of the same reasons why pirates won't be able to easily attack incoming ships.

However, there would probably be some sort of traffic control signal directing incoming ships towards the nearest "safe" lane, to ensure they can get to a relatively safe area as quick as possible.

 

[Klaus Kipling]

If pirates are very common, then going any farther than d100 than you have to is stupid, likely terminaly so.

So how many really stupid, really sucesful merchants do you have in your game?

Depends what you mean by common. If it was a certain chance of pirate attack then I doubt the merchies would jump in. However, depending on traffic, if only 1 in 20 vessels would be enough to keep a corsair running, then wily merchants would take those odds.

We're not talking nice, sensible sector lines here, who can afford proper protection, but free traders on the edge with one eye always on the mortgage payment.

What's the worst odds of attack a free trader chancer might take? 1 in 10? 1 in 6? Depends how desperate they are, really. And once the odds get that high the pirates would move on to more fertile pastures - they want trade to flow, after all.

It's not until relatively recently that there hasn't been a relatively high attrition rate of ships going out to sea, from a variety of causes, and ships are still lost all the time (50 vanish without trace every year, in the here and now), yet folk still sail in them.

Free traders who don't take chances don't remain free traders for long.

And vessels with a mortgage to pay can't afford to wait around for scheduled jump in and jump outs. They have to keep moving or go under.

Given what's going on out at the Gulf of Aden right now are we seeing vesels refusing to sail those seas? Nope, cuz the world economy depends on that trade. The only precaution I've read about is a cruise ship laying on a jet to ferry disembarked passengers from Egypt to Dubai while the ships sails on.

 

[lurker]

Jump-Travel has a 12 percent time Variance, 168h is the average so shedules will have to cover at least 24h

Can you give the source (publication) and page for this?

You will have problems sheduling the lift off/jump out of multiple ships in the source system(s)

Multiple sources for the ships that come to your system

True and true. Airports can handle it though....

Even if you don't have a time schedule, you can have a set of patrol areas for ships to jump near so that help would be closer.

My point in the post commented on was that yes, space is big, but there are methods to increase the security of shipping.

Also I am not assuming anything or suggesting every system is the same - just pointing out methods that some systems could employ to deter piracy and why others (perhaps they don't have the resources to scan for pirates, operate patrols, and so on) would be more susceptible.

 

[zozotroll]

We only have a handful of trade routes. The 3I has what 9000 settled systems? I cant begin to figure out how many usefull trade routes that means. Always somewhere else to go.

I do agree that most pirate, or at least most successfull, attacks will be in smaller less well defended systems. And yes freetraders are the likely targets. but they are also the most likely to fight back.

The trade rules as write make hualing frieght not very atractive. Perhjaps when you first start out, but the moment you can get spec cargos, you better go for it. My experience so far is that players will never haul frieght or passengers if they can possibly help it.

Of course that may mean that dumping cargo is the end of the line, so they will fight rather than give up. Which in turn makes the pirates life just that much harder.

 

[kristof65]

The trade rules as write make hualing frieght not very atractive. Perhjaps when you first start out, but the moment you can get spec cargos, you better go for it. My experience so far is that players will never haul frieght or passengers if they can possibly help it.

The freight rules actually make a ton of sense. You can't compete with the big guys when hauling freight. Best you can do is get a contract from one of them that has a guaranteed income regaradless of amount carried. The only way to make money hauling frieght is to do it in volume.

You'll make far more money buying your own cargo and reselling it, or hauling the special stuff that's too involved for the big guys to want to deal with.

For a good analogy, take a look at the movement of goods across the US and in a number of it's cities. If its small, and you want it there fast, you deal with a big, express shipping company. If it's big and bulky, you deal with a trucking company. If it's only got to go across town, you might hire a local courier who specializes in that. You want to ship a car or boat, you go to companies that specialize in that.

Of course that may mean that dumping cargo is the end of the line, so they will fight rather than give up. Which in turn makes the pirates life just that much harder.

The 'problem' with piracy (and crime in general) is that the rewards are often huge payouts, despite the risks. Overall, a hard working legit trader buying up spec cargos and reselling them at verious ports is going to make more money in the long run than a pirate. But when the pirates do have a success, there can money in excess to blow for awhile. Add the adreneline rush of the act of piracy itself, and it's kind of a high for them.

 

[kristof65]

Hmm. In thinking about this, I think more piracy attacks are going to be along the lines of modern day truck hijackings than general looting.

If you want to steal a bunch of random frieght, you're probably better off looting an orbital warehouse - or even better, falsifying cargo manifests to have it loaded on to your ship by local dock workers and fly away before anyone realizes the deception.

But if you're going to go to the trouble of seizing a ship underway for it's cargo, you're going to want to know what you're getting is worth it. Like the group who planned to hijack a FedEx truck that they suspected would be carrying millions of dollars of diamonds, or the group who followed two trucks from picking up their load of cigarettes and took them at gunpint at their first fuel stop, or the group that hijacked a truck at gunpoint with load of electronics just blocks away from where it loaded up with them.

I was looking through the CT Supplement 9 last night, and realized that the ideal pirate ship would probably be a variation of the Jump ship on page 22. At 5000 tons, that ship is a little big for pirates to use, but a 1000 ton variation would work wonders for snapping up free traders, far traders and even subsidized merchants and taking them elsewhere to deal with them.

 

[katadder]

Jump-Travel has a 12 percent time Variance, 168h is the average so shedules will have to cover at least 24h

Can you give the source (publication) and page for this?

You will have problems sheduling the lift off/jump out of multiple ships in the source system(s)

Multiple sources for the ships that come to your system

True and true. Airports can handle it though....

Even if you don't have a time schedule, you can have a set of patrol areas for ships to jump nearby so that help would be closer.

My point in the post commented on was that yes, space is big, but there are methods to increase the security of shipping.

Also I am not assuming anything or suggesting every system is the same - just pointing out methods that some systems could employ to deter piracy and why others (perhaps they don't have the resources to scan for pirates, operate patrols, and so on) would be more susceptible.

Another point is that if piracy is too common in a system and they don't do something about it, they could see a drop in trade (and an excellent opportunity for adventurous traders)

The Jump Variance was in all prior Variants of Traveller, should be in MGT also somewhere.

And airports DON'T manage that. Delays are quite common AND airliners don't fly as an organised group.

page 141 main rules under jump travel 148+6d6 hours.

 

[Aurore]

I would have thought you'd not get pirates in the real 21st century world either but you do, look at Somalia.

Space is big. Theres a lot of systems not on the map remember. The systems marked are the ones with inhabited planets. Theres 10 systems for every one thats marked that either have no planets, no colonisable planets or just asteroids. The pirates can hide anywhere they want. Deep space habitats made from converted freighter hulls in deep space would work too.

 

[EDG]

Seriously. Almost 90% of in system object detections currently are done by backyard amateurs with CCD cameras, 5-12" reflectors, and computers to do the flash comparator protocol. Many of those with VISUAL comparison of the two images!

I'm not sure where you got the "almost 90%" value from, that seems very high to me. My understanding is that most in-system objects are detected by chance by orbiting satellites doing deep sky surveys (I think I recall reading somewhere recently that several hundred objects had been discovered as a side-bonus in one of these deep sky surveys). There are probably loads of asteroids still sitting undiscovered in the data from them too.

Not to say that amateur astronomers don't find them (they obviously do), but they can only scan a very tiny portion of the sky every night, and are subject to weather conditions too.

Given that objects larger by 3 orders of magnitude (x1E3) and cooler by 1 order or more are detected at ranges up to 3 orders (x1E3) of magnitude further with such systems... it is likely that they could detect them.

IIRC many of these asteroids discovered by earth-based amateurs on Earth are in the 1-10 km range. Given that most ships are in the 10s-100s metre range, that's a difference of 1-2 orders of magnitude at most.

The coolness doesn't matter, most amateurs don't have IR sensors. Most spacecraft will be more reflective than an asteroid however (unless specifically stealthed), which makes them easier to detect. Plus there's the jump flash, if that exists in whatever version of Traveller you're using. However, detection would still very much depend on whether the detector is looking in the right place at the right time (plus, the light travel time from the arrival point means that by the time the light arrives at the detector, the ship's moved elsewhere).

 

[rust]

However, detection would still very much depend on whether the detector is looking in the right place at the right time (plus, the light travel time from the arrival point means that by the time the light arrives at the detector, the ship's moved elsewhere).

If amateur astronomers of the OTU work like those of our real world, they
would hardly be much help in fighting pirates, I think.

Since amateur telescopes have much less resolution and therefore a much
wider field of view than almost all telescopes used by professionals, they
are very well suited to looking for stuff like asteroids, comets or sunspots
- and, most probably, starships.

But most successful "object hunters" among the amateur astronomers ha-
ve automated their sky surveys, leaving most of the actual "observation"
to the telescope and its computer software, and later checking the hund-
reds or even thousands of CCD pictures with a software designed to disco-
ver moving objects.

So, I think that a good amateur skywatch program with high-tech equip-
ment would indeed be likely to discover many of the starships in a sys-
tem, provided the cloud cover on the observers' homeworld allows any
observations.
However, there is a high probability that these detections would not be
real time detections, but the results of an evaluation of the actual obser-
vations done many hours (sometimes days) later.

And, well, they would be quite useless then, I think.

 

[EDG]

Plus, all they'd be able to do was see that there's something out there. They'd have no way of identifying it specifically, or determining whether it's a ship that should be there or if it's a pirate or whatever.

Plus, busy systems will have a LOT of traffic.

 

[AKAramis]

The 90% figure was put out by the IAU, back in 2004.

 

[kristof65]

My understanding was that a lot of the most recent discoveries by amatuers haven't so much been with their own equipment, but from analyzing available photos from various official sources, and then using their equipment to verify it. Photos that could be anywhere from a day to a decade old.

 

[EDG]

The 90% figure was put out by the IAU, back in 2004.

A quick scan of the lists here indicates otherwise:
http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/iau/lists/NumberedMPs.html

Specifically in the last few links there, note the discoverers - most are from deep sky surveys like LINEAR or Catalina, and major observatories like Kitt Peak and Palomar.


Also there's some nice stats for discoveries of NEO asteroids here:
http://www.spaceobs.com/perso/recherche/NEA2007/NEA2007.htm

Again, most are discovered by surveys - "others" are a minority, around the 10% mark (going back to 2002).