Hi Pop Worlds

alex_greene said:
High Pop worlds become feasible only at high tech levels. Below about TL 5, and you've got a population that can cap at around 7 or 8. Any more than that, and one passing rat or well filled with cholera and the population situation solves itself again.

Just look at the modern world - rich nations can easily afford TL 7, while regions like most of africa, rural china, indian slums etc, which house at least one billion people, practically do not reach TL 5.
And even in those regions, people do not die off faster than new people are born.

One could say nature is trying to cut down human population, but we resist it pretty good.

I'm living in a big urban area in Germany with a population density of 1,183 persons/km² - about 25% of the poulation density of london. A lot of the surface covered by those cities is green.
And it's not even near a hellhole.
Earth has 148.9 Mio. km² of land, resulting in theoretical feasible (feeding aside, only from a psyhological point iof view) population of 176,148,700,000 - a sure C.
 
walkir said:
Earth has 148.9 Mio. km² of land, resulting in theoretical feasible (feeding aside, only from a psyhological point iof view) population of 176,148,700,000 - a sure C.
Just a B, in fact. ;)
10s of billions: A.
100s of billions: B.
1000s of billions: C.
 
Tobias said:
walkir said:
Earth has 148.9 Mio. km² of land, resulting in theoretical feasible (feeding aside, only from a psyhological point iof view) population of 176,148,700,000 - a sure C.
Just a B, in fact. ;)
10s of billions: A.
100s of billions: B.
1000s of billions: C.

So I miscounted. Thanks for the correction. ;)
 
Tobias said:
aspqrz said:
I disagree ...
Oh, sure. What part of the population in Japan is living in a "hellhole" then? In percent, if you please, so I can get what part of the population you consider significant. (And after you did your homework on that one, we can talk causes.)

Oh, and what part of ...

Which is, sorta, my point ... as I have noted elsewhere, demographic realities are such that if such high pop hellholes (and, regardless of tech, a planet with 40 billion pop would be a hellhole to a significant number of its citizens)

... are you still incapable of grasping?

I said specifically what I said, not what you have tried (and continue to try) to twist it into ... note that I did not say that any percentage were living in a hellhole ... that's your twisting of things ... :shock:

That's the problem ... you are the one grasping at straws and twisting things and spouting irrelevancies, not I ...

But, hey, feel free to keep twisting ... in the wind ... :wink: ... if you want.

Phil
 
Tobias said:
Humans are part of Traveller. At least for the Imperium, they are the largest part. So, unless you suggest that all Humans in the TU are fundamentally different from early 21st century humans*, there is a valid comparison here. And that comparison says (fact): If 30-40 billion people on a Terra-sized world automatically mean "hellhole for a significant part of the population", then South Korea, Germany, the UK, Israel, Italy, Taiwan and the Netherlands, to name a few, are "hellholes for a significant part of the population"

Sadly, this is irrelevant.

Note that all of these countries have the same problem with low replacement rates ... so, I guess, anyone other than those who are wilfully blind to the facts, would grasp that they're not going to be "high pop" for very long ... in terms of a 1000+ year Imperium ...

Lets look at your examples more closely ... something you should have done ... :wink:

South Korea: Total fertility rate: 1.21 children born/woman (2009 est.)
495 people/sq km

Germany: Total fertility rate: 1.41 children born/woman (2009 est.)
237 people/sq km

UK: Total fertility rate: 1.66 children born/woman (2009 est.)
253 people/sq km

Israel: Total fertility rate: 2.75 children born/woman (2009 est.)
348 people/sq km

Italy: Total fertility rate: 1.31 children born/woman (2009 est.)
195 people/sq km

Taiwan:Total fertility rate: 1.21 children born/woman (2009 est.)
638 people/sq km

Netherlands: Total fertility rate:1.66 children born/woman (2009 est.)
409 people/sq km

So, apart from Israel, all of them have declining populations ... and the two that are the most crowded ... gee, guess what? They have the lowest replacement rates ... the fastest declining populations ... :shock:

And why does Israel have such a high replacement rate?

I'd hazard a guess that a significant chunk of it is from the fact that the family size of the Arabs in Israel is far, far higher than that of the Jews ... and who are the richest portion of Israeli society? The Jewish portion!

In Israel, the total fertility rate (TFR) is 2.9 children born per woman.

TFR was 2.8 for Jews (2.69 in 2005, 2.67 in 2000), 3.9 for Muslims (4.03 in 2005, 4.57 in 2000), 2.49 for Druze (2.59 in 2005, 2.87 in 2000), 2.14 for Christians (2.15 in 2005, 2.35 in 2000) and 1.55 for Others (1.49 in 2005, 1.55 in 2000).

TFR is very high among Haredi Jews. For Ashkenazi Haredim, the TFR rose to 8.51 in 1996 from 6.91 in 1980. The figure for 2008 is estimated to be even higher. TFR for Sephardi/Mizrachi Haredim rose from 4.57 in 1980 to 6.57 in 1996

It is reasonable to assume that if the Arab portion got a fair share of wealth and education, well, they'd see declining birth rates, too.

Its also unreasonable to assume that religious attitudes towards the position of women and their role in society such as evidenced in the extremely high fertility rates for Haredi would be unlikely in the OTU given that it deliberately eschews anything even vaguely resembling an organised religion for the high tech worlds (yes, I know there's at least one adventure where the primitives have a ecclesiastical state ... but they're primitives)

While that might explain a single example ... it would be ... exceptional.

If you're going to argue specific examples then at least get the facts down :wink:

Phil
 
By way of a change, here's my own campaign description of Vincennes/Deneb, for which I wrote up a very detailed description and history using the GURPS sourcebooks, based on what little canon information we have about the world. I did my best to make it an interesting place to visit. :)

Vincennes is, according to canon, a Pop A, TL 16 Industrial waterworld in a complex trinary star system. (A/899AA6-G) I decided it has a population of 11 billion, and one small continent - less than 10% of the world's surface area - that is scoured flat by constant hurricane-force winds caused by Coriolis effect and dramatic temperature differences during the world's 25 standard-day year. There are other inhabited planets in the system, but the largest of these only has half a million inhabitants, so has no significant importance compared to the 11,000 million on the mainworld. As such, it's a good example of an 'extreme situation' high population world.

Vincennes was originally settled at the end of the Long Night, and the colonists dug underground shelters on the world's sole continent. These are now abandoned historical monuments. After Imperial contact, foreign investment and technology transfers allowed the creation of cities under the ocean. These prospered, mining minerals from the seabed and extracting biochemical compounds from the abundant ocean life. The economy of Vincennes boomed, immigrants flocked to the world, and the population started to accelerate. The underwater cities became huge arcologies, linked by maglev railways in sealed underwater tubes. Over the centuries the cities expanded and spread until by modern times they form a single continuous city, thousands of kilometres in diameter, spreading in a circle along the continental shelf of the world's only landmass. Mining operations and aquaculture farms are spread through the rest of the ocean. Vincennes Downport is located on the surface of the continent - the only significant settlement to be found on dry land in the present day - but even so it's mostly underground. A supersonic maglev railway connects it to the underwater megacity. Since the construction of the flying cities (see below) the Downport is mostly only used by bulk freighters and industrial cargo shippers, not passengers or free traders. (As such, it's a good place to land your ship if you want to avoid too many prying eyes...)

The Civil War era saw major political disruptions, but after Vincennes recovered the planetary government decided to invest in diversifying and improving the planet's industrial base. In 710 they financed the construction of the Deneb sector's first flying city, in imitation of similar developments currently underway in the Imperium's core. This city, called Blish and housing 700,000 people, was both a prestige project, an economic stimulus and a showcase for Vincennes' gravitic technology and heavy industry, which were cutting edge for the period. Many more cities followed, financed by both state and private investment. Their chief advantage is that they can climb high in the atmosphere, to avoid the worst of the Coriolis storms, and then descend again when the weather calms. They also each act as starports in miniature; docking with the underwater arcologies to take on heavy manufactured goods and other supplies, then slowly climbing to orbit to act as highports for the tens of thousands of commercial starships that pass through Vincennes each year. In the present day there are 71 such cities, including one owned directly by the Imperium to act as the seat of the Subsector Duke, and another owned by Vincennes' own royal family and the planetary government.

Most of the flying cities specialise in light engineering, high-tech manufacture and service industries, while the underwater arcologies concentrate on heavy industry, aquafarming and mining and other dirty industrial trades. This has led to a strong cultural distinction; the underwater cities are crowded, relatively poor and lower-class in population, while the flying cities are home to the social elite and a thriving cultural and artistic scene. Many of the flying cities are built in fanciful shapes; elaborate geometric forms or fake Baroque castles or even stranger designs. They are a famous tourist destination throughout the sector, and for most offworlders, the flying cities are symbolic of Vincennes. Few tourists ever visit the underwater arcologies; many probably don't even realise they're there, and certainly never appreciate that the vast majority of Vincennes' population still lives there. Many of the permanent inhabitants of the flying cities don't think about the underwater arcologies too often either.

Like many people who live in vulnerable and crowded artificial environments, the population of Vincennes show a rather schizophrenic social attitude. Normally they are very conformist, restrained and law-abiding people; but put them in a place where they feel safe and secure enough to let their hair down, and they can go completely wild. Saturday nights downtown in a flying city are an unmissable experience... (In this, I modelled Vincennes on a mixture of modern Japan and New Orleans' French Quarter, or the Left Bank in Paris... The set-up between the flying cities and the underwater arcologies is also patterned on Wells' Eloi and Morlocks, Lang's Metropolis, and France before the French Revolution.)
 
Tobias said:
This very world had pop level 9 in 1850, which is TL 4 if you're generous, and pop level 8 since antiquity. No cigar. :twisted:

Really?

Only if you twist things ...

TL4: Roughly comparable to the late 19th/early 20th century. (TMB #4)

TL3: Roughly comparable to the early 19th century (TMB #4)

So, at best, 1850 is on the absolute earliesy borderline of TL4 ... and more liklely to be mature TL3 :shock:

1804: 1 Billion (estimated) ... barely 9, which covers the range 1 billion to 9.999 billion

To reach 2 Billion, however, took until 1927.

1000 BC: c. 50 million
500 BC: c. 100 million
1 AD: c. 300 million
500 AD: c. 200 million
1000 AD: c. 300 million
1500 AD. c. 450 million

Population really starts to take off in the mid 18th century, the effective spread of the so-called agricultural revolution.

So while, yes, Terra had Pop/8 since around 500 BC, Pop/8 covers 100 million to 999 million and it took another 1000+ years to reach the middle of that band, and another 300 years or so to reach the next band.

Note that the estimates are that population will crest at under 10 Billion in 2050, having taken almost 250 years to crawl across Pop/9 and yet never reaching Pop/10 ... or barely, at best :shock:

And, of course, I doubt that that takes into account the likely effects of global warming (assuming its as bad as some of the less extreme doomsayers say), which will, of course, disproportionally hit the poorer countries ... the ones who generally have the highest birth rates and where most of the world's population growth occurs.

You want to argue the figures, then argue the real ones, don't gloss over them and hope no-one will notice.

Phil
 
My thoughts..

Some people seem to be forgetting that Traveller is Science Fiction, and space opera at that. If the world has a population of 50 billion, get creative on the plausible reasons for the why and how...

Also, I see statistics in this thread being used in much the same way as a drunk uses a lamp post, for support rather than illumination. The sober analysis of available statistics lead Thomas Malthus to his bogus theories of population growth. Likewise, they lead Paul R. Ehrlich to similar theories, which he espoused in "The Population Bomb", which proved to be equally incorrect.

The term "Hellhole" is a value judgment, there's nothing absolute or factual about it, no more so than when my girlfriend says it's really hot today, and I argue with her for half an hour...because 20 degrees C ain't hot.
 
aspqrz said:
Oh, and what part of ...
The part where you give me an indication what percentage of the population is a "significant number".
I'm still waiting for that one.

I said specifically what I said,
Okay. Since you refuse to define what a "significant number" is, I'll use my own definition: 25% or more. Japan is not a "hellhole" for one quarter of its population. Ergo you are wrong under this definition. If you dispute this definition of "significant": Provide yours please.

And by the way, I don't know who you are trying to fool: You used the term "high population hellhole". You know darn well how that sounds - something quite different from Japan, the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium etc. etc.
 
aspqrz said:
So, at best, 1850 is on the absolute earliesy borderline of TL4 ... and more liklely to be mature TL3
Yeah? That's what "if you're generous" was meant to imply? :?

The rest of what you write is not relevant to the statement: A TL limit to population like the one suggested does not make sense even for the specific case of Terra.
Furthermore, I do not a) put great faith in predictions, especially those which propose that the basic trend of... well, all of human history, namely a growing world population, will revert itself, and b) would like to know who precisely made this prediction.
 
aspqrz said:
Note that all of these countries have the same problem with low replacement rates
You do realize that this runs contrary to your own line of argument? You propose that the presence of a large population makes for a "hellhole". Not that a declining population, which is in fact the very opposite of what you say, makes for a "hellhole".

So, apart from Israel, all of them have declining populations
Yeah, so? What the hell-hole :twisted: does that matter? By your reasoning, all these countries must currently be "hellholes" for a significant part of their population.

It is reasonable to assume that if the Arab portion got a fair share of wealth and education
Are you actively trying to shoot down your own arguments? :?
Yes, social and economic factors are behind low birthrates... instead of such a ridiculous idea that population density might be responsible. Thanks for clearing that up.

If you're going to argue specific examples then at least get the facts down
Fact: All this countries currently have a population density which would make them "hellholes" by your definition, whatever it might be.
Fact: All these countries must currently be hellholes by said definition.
 
alex_greene said:
In Mongoose' Charted Space, the entire human population was recently described as being one trillion people - that's pop C.
Really? That seems to be too low for the TU. The Imperium has ~10000 world, of which ~300 should be Pop A worlds with ~50 billion each. That alone would make 15 trillion.
 
GypsyComet said:
Backing out of the thread slowly, tranq-equipped snub pistol in hand...

Clearly this is part of some nefarious plot to inflate post counts by talking past each other ... I suspect Hiver or Illuminati involvement.

[Perhaps even Illuminati Hivers!!]


Perhaps it is time to look for a quiet discussion of Near C rocks.
 
Tobias said:
alex_greene said:
In Mongoose' Charted Space, the entire human population was recently described as being one trillion people - that's pop C.
Really? That seems to be too low for the TU. The Imperium has ~10000 world, of which ~300 should be Pop A worlds with ~50 billion each. That alone would make 15 trillion.

Perhaps the One Trillion figure is from the Sol System, who might count those not of Terra origin (like Vilanni) as some fraction of a person. :D
 
Perhaps it is time to look for a quiet discussion of Near C rocks.


i've always prefereed my NearC on the rocks with a gravitic twist - served with an umbrella, naturlich !


As requested, heres a condensed quickstart for the NearC on the Rocks discussion....

GrognardEnfant said:
I thinkits blatantly obvious to any rational clearthinking person that modern (ie TL7.5) mixed drink technology would support the rremixing from instructions of a NearC on the Rocks , if not the initial discovery -(which is what I said despite Gypsys pathetic and lOOs!Ng attempt to put a strawman in my mouth and light it on fire with his BOLD TEXT BEATSTICK)and, in a society with cheap interstellar travel, which works STATISTICALLY as per canon (as DEFINED in nondecanonized FGU products ), data transmission can be seen as the main cargo to anyone who isn;t obviously just TROLLING that....one would.....
Oh gosh. I can't keep up a straight face. Sorry. Do continue....... :oops: :oops:


:twisted: :twisted:
 
Someone_Is_Wrong_On_The_Internet.jpg
 
StephenT said:
By way of a change, here's my own campaign description of Vincennes/Deneb, for which I wrote up a very detailed description and history using the GURPS sourcebooks, based on what little canon information we have about the world. I did my best to make it an interesting place to visit. :)
Thank you very much for the interesting description of Vincennes. :D

I am currently working on a campaign depicting the creation of a new
human colony on a water world in my non-OTU setting, so in a way
Vincennes looks a bit like a very far possible future of the water world
Anuira of my setting. :)

May I ask whether you use GURPS technology for your campaign, and
whether you have designed any specific marine technology for it ?

I ask because I am busy designing such technology (at TL 9 / 10, most-
ly without gravitics) for my setting and converting it to Mongoose Tra-
veller, and it would be very interesting to see what someone else has
done in this area. :wink:

[Oh, and I think this is still on topic, because the technology available
to deal with the environment may well determine the potential popula-
tion density ... or so ... :lol: ]
 
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