A Few Thoughts on Trade

[DFW]

Yep, and I would also expect the huge majority of commodities
to be subject to long term contracts between the producer and
a trader, with an agreed price with little (if any) short term fluc-
tuations, and probably with a clause that prevents a sale to any
other customer at a lower price.

Right. Spec Traders end up just nibbling on the crumbs left over. They are not pulling into port at Seoul Korea, and buying 20 new Hyundai autos to sell in Los Angeles.

 

[BFalcon]

Yep, and I would also expect the huge majority of commodities
to be subject to long term contracts between the producer and
a trader, with an agreed price with little (if any) short term fluc-
tuations, and probably with a clause that prevents a sale to any
other customer at a lower price.

Doesn't work like that, sadly... my mum used to work in the purchasing department of a (then) local company (German-owned btw) that bought in steel by the tons... and they used to renegotiate on a regular basis and they'd renegotiate in advance so there was often a panic buy of hundreds of tons of steel before the deadline arrived to raise prices (after which there'd be none since the company already had what it needed). Not sure about the clause either... it's possible, but then you have to remember that the supplier may be competing with other suppliers - the buyer may just shrug and go pay the other rep a visit.

DFW: good point... except they may employ their own haulage or hire a regular hauler from a locally-based specialist (keeping it in the region and a regular haulage contract would probably also save them money too). Tramps tend to get the excess cargo that nobody has the means to carry, unless lucky (the shipping/haulage reps usually snap up any contract jobs as soon as they can - that's why they're there).

Right. Spec Traders end up just nibbling on the crumbs left over. They are not pulling into port at Seoul Korea, and buying 20 new Hyundai autos to sell in Los Angeles.

Yep or picking up the rare cargo that the shipping lines cannot afford to divert their fleet for. (which is when the Tramps make their paydays).

 

[DFW]

Yep or picking up the rare cargo that the shipping lines cannot afford to divert their fleet for. (which is when the Tramps make their paydays).

Right but, no need to divert shipping lines out on the fringes. On planet brokers (that have been working for 20 years on surface) from Binary Trading Co. already picked up the "rare cargo" and the Tramps just get paid freight rates. They don't get a chance to buy it... They only get a chance to buy what no one else wants. Real marginal crap basically. With a max resale margin of ~5-10%.

These are just some new thoughts btw. Untested

 

[rust]

yes, but Rust, an INT of 12 and a Broker of 3 (ie 4 levels) really is the top end of the human scale where buying is concerned ...

Well, INT 12 is certainly not unusually high, and thanks to Traveller's
generous skill improvement rules a beginning character can get from
level 0 to level 3 in only a few months. If he wants to become such a
"top end" trader, he can achieve this before his 19th birthday.

 

[BFalcon]

True, but that depends on whether that company can afford to keep those brokers on their books all the time... or if the seller *likes* that company (maybe they didn't pay their bills last time)...

But yeah, at the selling end, the way the 3I works, it is possible to get lucky... a seller has a surplus of a goods that the company doesn't have a seller for, so doesn't buy - the Tramp picks up it and then finds that a shipping company's ship got hit by pirates or misjumped an extra day out of port so is delayed, meaning that you can suddenly sneak in and fill the orders before the cargo comes in (maybe that high-class restaurant really needs good quality foodstuffs and was counting on the fresh food that freighter was carrying... and the Tramp just happens to have some on board).

I wonder if the process shouldn't be two-stage... first find out the base price for the planet (ie type) and then negotiate the buying price...with the first being a linear chart like now, but the second being a x3 chart (ie smaller variation at the equal point in negotiator ability and a greater one right at the edges of the possibilities (representing a good negotiator with a really bad one).

If nothing else, Rust, maybe use the trading partners as a negative DM in the process? So if your player has an INT of 12 and a Broker of +3, have the NPC have an INT of 12 and a Broker of +2 to +4 - it'd help to reduce the problem (albeit only slightly).

 

[atpollard]

Rust,
I agree that the trade rules make more sense in the context for which they were designed … a single ship arrives in a system for a one off chance of buying goods and arrives at another planet two weeks later to find completely different local conditions on completely different goods.

There was an old JTAS rule of simulating a stock market that might be more applicable to your use.

Start with a base price of 100% for the first week.
Each week after that, roll 1D6 and adjust the base price as follows:
1. base price drops 10%
2. base price drops 5%
3-4. base price is unchanged
5. base price increases 5%
6. base price increases 10%
The base price remains in effect for a week, then you roll again to see what the market is doing.

For the actual purchase or sale, roll 1D6+3 (plus skill modifiers) on the trade table and use the current base price from the local market.

It is still possible for the referee to roll a very depressed market and a skilled trader to negotiate a really good deal, but the day to day changes are reduced to the middle of the chart and the market both has trends and tends to self-correct.

If you have more than D6 dice, you can even roll 1D4+4 to narrow the day to day range of deals.

 

[BFalcon]

yes, but Rust, an INT of 12 and a Broker of 3 (ie 4 levels) really is the top end of the human scale where buying is concerned ...

Well, INT 12 is certainly not unusually high, and thanks to Traveller's
generous skill improvement rules a beginning character can get from
level 0 to level 3 in only a few months. If he wants to become such a
"top end" trader, he can achieve this before his 19th birthday.

Hmm... I hadn't considered the skill improvement - I'd overlooked that.

In that case, just make the NPCs skills oppose the players and have them with a minimum skill just higher than the players (if it's a busy system) or just below (for a backwater)?

atpollard: Nice... I might grab that one myself... just in case!
And very true about the "context" aspect... I think people overlook the fact that some people may sell a cargo at a less than ideal price just because they made a slight profit and need the cargo space or the money or because they're headed back to the wrong planet to sell it at and a small profit is better than none... unfortunately, they may have just swamped the market...

 

[rust]

Start with a base price of 100% for the first week.
Each week after that, roll 1D6 and adjust the base price as follows:
1. base price drops 10%
2. base price drops 5%
3-4. base price is unchanged
5. base price increases 5%
6. base price increases 10%
The base price remains in effect for a week, then you roll again to see what the market is doing.

For the actual purchase or sale, roll 1D6+3 (plus skill modifiers) on the trade table and use the current base price from the local market.

It is still possible for the referee to roll a very depressed market and a skilled trader to negotiate a really good deal, but the day to day changes are reduced to the middle of the chart and the market both has trends and tends to self-correct.

If you have more than D6 dice, you can even roll 1D4+4 to narrow the day to day range of deals.

Thank you very much, this looks good.

 

[BFalcon]

rust: you could build that into a spreadsheet easily enough... if not, I'll have a go at doing so for you if you want... that way each game week, you could just cross off another box off the price (you'd need to keep it secret from the players though...).

 

[rust]

rust: you could build that into a spreadsheet easily enough... if not, I'll have a go at doing so for you if you want... that way each game week, you could just cross off another box off the price (you'd need to keep it secret from the players though...).

Thank you, I will work on it. Keeping it secret from the players would
be slightly difficult, because their characters are the ones who control
the mining and do the sales, but I will find a solution.

 

[BFalcon]

Keeping it secret won't be that bad - not if you manually enter the dice roll yourself on your spreadsheet and then tell them the results - if you don't know until it happens, they sure won't.

As for doing it yourself, no problems - it'll be better that way and you won't need to translate most of it into German... I just wasn't sure how good you were at spreadsheets... (bad memory)

 

[zozotroll]

Rust pat of the problem is the whole D6 thing. A sensible D100 would likely gove you better results. Or perhaps D1000, for a lot of events.

Would people really use low berth with its high death rate? Would there really be that much interstellar traffic with miss jump happening so often? My current group has had 4-5 miss jumps in less than a year, icluding this last weekend, a back to back episode. First time was OK, we only went J1 with a J2 ship and fuel, so we had something to fall back on. Second time could have been fatal. Real people probably would not take that risk for less than acouple hundred percent profit.

I am sure yoiu can set up a trading system thatdoes reflect reality. But, how much fun would it be to play? The tramp DFW describes probably turns pirate in the first month or two, because oterwise he is on the street with a tin cup begging.

Different people are bugged by different things. Energy weapons would drive me crazy if I thought about them, so I dont. well mostly.

Owen

 

[DFW]

Would there really be that much interstellar traffic with miss jump happening so often? My current group has had 4-5 miss jumps in less than a year, icluding this last weekend, a back to back episode. First time was OK, we only went J1 with a J2 ship and fuel, so we had something to fall back on. Second time could have been fatal. Real people probably would not take that risk for less than acouple hundred percent profit.

"Roll 2d6 and add the following DMs. If the result is 0
or less, the ship misjumps"

So, without battle damage & using a minimally maintained J-Drive (jumping outside 100D limit), misjump chance is 0%... So, I don't see ANY risk in this area...

 

[far-trader]

Rust pat of the problem is the whole D6 thing. A sensible D100 would likely gove you better results. Or perhaps D1000, for a lot of events.

D-mentia

It's been a growing problem in the RPG community since D&D. Those original polyhedrons were ok but then someone thought a D30 would be a good idea, and then "We've been rolling D100 with D10, that's stupid, let's have a D100 already!" Now D1000s? Where does the madness stop? All I need are a pair of cubes, and even that is optional.

Would people really use low berth with its high death rate? Would there really be that much interstellar traffic with miss jump happening so often?

What rules are you using? Because low-berth travel really isn't that bad and never has been. And misjumps only happen if you purposefully break proper operational procedure, and even then only rarely unless you're acting criminally negligent or irresponsible.

I honestly can't see your group misjumping 4-5 times in a year unless they are making every jump within 100D, using unrefined fuel, have skipped maintenance, and don't have an engineer. In MTU and imo any one of those is grounds for investigation and suspension of licenses. Repeated or multiple cases will result in revocation of licenses at least, and up to criminal investigation, charges, fines and/or imprisonment.

I think maybe you have misinterpreted the rules. Or your player characters are certifiably insane

 

[BFalcon]

Rust pat of the problem is the whole D6 thing. A sensible D100 would likely gove you better results. Or perhaps D1000, for a lot of events.

Would people really use low berth with its high death rate? Would there really be that much interstellar traffic with miss jump happening so often? My current group has had 4-5 miss jumps in less than a year, icluding this last weekend, a back to back episode. First time was OK, we only went J1 with a J2 ship and fuel, so we had something to fall back on. Second time could have been fatal. Real people probably would not take that risk for less than acouple hundred percent profit.

I am sure yoiu can set up a trading system thatdoes reflect reality. But, how much fun would it be to play? The tramp DFW describes probably turns pirate in the first month or two, because oterwise he is on the street with a tin cup begging.

Different people are bugged by different things. Energy weapons would drive me crazy if I thought about them, so I dont. well mostly.

Owen

Sadly the last thing we need is to start talking about the d666 rolls or we'll have the church hardliners all over our behinds again as "Dungeon and Dragons" players... (I know we're not,but have you ever tried to actually convince one of them that?)

With the spreadsheet I'm doing for myself, I'm actually planning a more involved system now that will allow slight variations but I'm looking for a formula which will look to maintain a trend (so if the price has been falling, it will prefer to do so). I'm also looking into having a seperate page for the calculations with various plug-in variables to allow the GM more control and a button control to make the spreadsheet enter the values into a table from which a trend graph can be generated.

I'm not giving this too high a priority though...

Or your player characters are certifiably insane

You mean more than the normal Traveller player, I assume?

 

[DFW]

What rules are you using? Because low-berth travel really isn't that bad and never has been.

"There is some danger to the passenger – a Medic check
is required upon opening the capsule, applying the passenger’s
Endurance DM to the check."

Assuming a 7 End score and a Medic/1, What is the % chance for failed roll?

 

[far-trader]

...

Or your player characters are certifiably insane

You mean more than the normal Traveller player, I assume?

No, just the usual

...been there done that I had a player character who was certifiably insane, after too many jumps and terms in the IISS. They cut him loose with what they figured was minor case of jump sickness from too many mis-jumps (he'd set some kind of survival record). They even gave him a Type S and put him on Detached Duty. He soon after went off the deep end. Rationally (in his mind) investigating misjumps as a key to unlocking controlled jumps exceeding the J6 limit. It started innocently enough with reviewing and investigating misjumps in the records. Then he needed some hard data and had to force some misjumps with his Type S. I knew he was way far gone when he had a jump button installed on his belt buckle to activate the Type S jump program from anywhere aboard... and started pushing the limits of the 10D margin.

Fun times

 

[BFalcon]

According to the rulebook, a +1 DM would give 58.33% chance of success, so 41.66% chance of someone dying...

Question is, can you revive them if they fail - if so, you'll get a higher survival rate...

 

[BFalcon]

...

Or your player characters are certifiably insane

You mean more than the normal Traveller player, I assume?

No, just the usual

...been there done that I had a player character who was certifiably insane, after too many jumps and terms in the IISS. They cut him loose with what they figured was minor case of jump sickness from too many mis-jumps (he'd set some kind of survival record). They even gave him a Type S and put him on Detached Duty. He soon after went off the deep end. Rationally (in his mind) investigating misjumps as a key to unlocking controlled jumps exceeding the J6 limit. It started innocently enough with reviewing and investigating misjumps in the records. Then he needed some hard data and had to force some misjumps with his Type S. I knew he was way far gone when he had a jump button installed on his belt buckle to activate the Type S jump program from anywhere aboard... and started pushing the limits of the 10D margin.

Fun times

10D??? Insane isn't the word!!! Insane applies to that guy like the word "step" applies to a cliff...

They should have retired whoever gave him that ship too... on the same grounds... :lol:

 

[zozotroll]

Would there really be that much interstellar traffic with miss jump happening so often? My current group has had 4-5 miss jumps in less than a year, icluding this last weekend, a back to back episode. First time was OK, we only went J1 with a J2 ship and fuel, so we had something to fall back on. Second time could have been fatal. Real people probably would not take that risk for less than acouple hundred percent profit.

"Roll 2d6 and add the following DMs. If the result is 0
or less, the ship misjumps"

So, without battle damage & using a minimally maintained J-Drive (jumping outside 100D limit), misjump chance is 0%... So, I don't see ANY risk in this area...

Perhaps there is a difference in our MRB, but my book says 8+ for an accurae jump. That is way more than 0%. Particularly as you can only add effect from the Power divert roll.

Owen