Observations on 2e

[Greg Smith]

OK Burger - odds of doing at least 4 points of Damage with 1AD of White Star Advanced Neutron Laser, firing on a Drakh Heavy Raider...

African or ...

Um, I mean first edition or second.

 

[Triggy]

OK Burger - odds of doing at least 4 points of Damage with 1AD of White Star Advanced Neutron Laser, firing on a Drakh Heavy Raider...

African or ...

Um, I mean first edition or second.

2nd ed. (hence odds of 3-1 on would be more than a little generous - 1st ed. this guess may be close though).

I'd guess about 6-1 in 2nd ed. and 2-1 in 1st ed. (mainly the effects of Hull 4 interacting with Beams now).

 

[Chernobyl]

Yeah, getting 9 hits with 1AD in 2e is 1 in 512.

actually, its 1 in 1024. you haven't checked to see if he missed the next shot. 1 in 512 is the odds of geting at least 9 hits with 1AD.

Chernobyl :wink:

 

[Chernobyl]

OK Burger - odds of doing at least 4 points of Damage with 1AD of White Star Advanced Neutron Laser, firing on a Drakh Heavy Raider...

at least 4 hits with a 1AD beam, is 1/16, or 6.25%

 

[LaranosTZ]

Ahh Chern, but that wasn't the question, the question wasn't 4 hits, the question is at least 4 points of damage. So you have to figure the odds for hits, potential crits, dodges, and GEG with all those factors.

 

[Greg Smith]

OK Burger - odds of doing at least 4 points of Damage with 1AD of White Star Advanced Neutron Laser, firing on a Drakh Heavy Raider...

at least 4 hits with a 1AD beam, is 1/16, or 6.25%

But he asked for four points of damage with the triple damage Neutron Laser, which means at least two non-dodged hits.

So I would put it at 1/8, or three hits, with an average of one dodged (dodge 5+).

 

[katadder]

he used the WS laser so getting 4 damage is impossible under normal shooting, would be relying on certain crits.. 1 hit gets through - 2 damage, 2 hits get through - 5 damage. its precise so cannot get bulkheads

 

[LaranosTZ]

He did say 'at least' 4 points of damage...and if we're looking at a triple damage weapon, 1 GEG, all you need is 2 undodged hits that don't cause criticals.

 

[Jhary]

To be fair, 1AD getting 9 hits is a 0.2% chance of occurring! That is 1 in 512 odds. So that is extremely lucky. But yeah, not as lucky as getting 9 hits from 1AD would have been under Armageddon!

sorry but the chance is for every roll 50% or 3 of 6 in the moment you roll no fancy statistic is that changing.

 

[Hans Olo]

Ok it is a 50% chance to roll a 4+, but you also have to take in account that you have to roll it 9 times in a row.
And that´s as Burger said 1 in 512 odds.

 

[Da Boss]

Shadow fighters tried to blow B4 up - on their own. Narn fighters often seen on their own as are B5's fighter wings.

 

[Chernobyl]

I've worked the numbers.

Weighted Average Beam Hits, by AD: (computing % chance to hit out to <.01% total unaccounted for, at 10AD that's 35 hits)

1AD - 1
2AD - 2
3AD - 2.99
4AD - 3.96
5AD - 4.90
6AD- 5.76
7AD - 6.53
8AD- 7.16
9AD - 7.62
10AD - 7.88

Highest probability occuring # of hits, by AD

1AD - 0
2AD - 0-1
3AD - 1-2
4AD - 2-3
5AD - 3-4
6AD - 4-5
7AD - 5-6
8AD - 6-7
9AD - 7-8
10AD - 8-9

Middle 50% range by AD (ranked between 25% and 75%) of total probability

1AD - 0-1
2AD - 0-2
3AD - 1-3
4AD - 2-5
5AD - 3-6
6AD - 3-7
7AD - 4-8
8AD - 5-9
9AD - 6-11
10AD - 7-12

Chernobyl

 

[Burger]

Yeah, getting 9 hits with 1AD in 2e is 1 in 512.

actually, its 1 in 1024. you haven't checked to see if he missed the next shot. 1 in 512 is the odds of geting at least 9 hits with 1AD.

Chernobyl :wink:

Yeah, by getting 9 hits I meant a least 9 hits not exactly 9

 

[LimeyDragon]

Yeah, getting 9 hits with 1AD in 2e is 1 in 512.

actually, its 1 in 1024. you haven't checked to see if he missed the next shot. 1 in 512 is the odds of geting at least 9 hits with 1AD.

Chernobyl :wink:

Yeah, by getting 9 hits I meant a least 9 hits not exactly 9

you guys crack me up.. the sheer science and mathamatics.. it is a great joy to read this thread..

 

[Greg Smith]

Mathematics is a wonderous thing.

 

[Chernobyl]

Math built the world we live in.

Chern

 

[animus]

There are three kinds of people in the world: those who respect statistics and those who don't. :lol:

 

[LimeyDragon]

There are three kinds of people in the world: those who respect statistics and those who don't. :lol:

whats the third kind.?

 

[Triggy]

There are 10 types of people in the world: those who understand binary and those who don't.

 

[darknight]

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