New stat-methods-free discussion of trade codes, and changes

[captainjack23]

I'll try again...it is all too easy to get bogged down in what is a really basic discusssion otat methods.
Her is my calculation of the distribution of trade codes in the OTU as described by Gar in version 3.2.

Caveat Emptor, compare all the tables; EDG and I disagree on how to compute them...which is quite reasonable. Editorial input into the calculations (dropping POP 0 worlds in obvious cases, for instance) is also an area we have approached differently. This also is fine.

In fact, my use of unedited code criterea does not reflect disagreement or agreement with EDG's suggestions, or indeed any changes suggested. Its just what I defined a s abaseline.

Okay:

Ag   12
AS   3
Ba   3
De   8
Fl   9
Ga   17
Hi   8
Ic   14
In   4
Lo   17
Na   5
Ni   58
Po   13
Ri   4
Va   13
Wa   10

 

[captainjack23]

On population, do we really think that population C is viable on any world? <snip>

Alternative, cap population at B?

The chance is so remote that I would prefer to keep the world.

Well, its not remote. Its impossible given MGT rules to generate a C pop randomly.

The max 2d6-2 roll is A. Its sort of noted that worlds with "many billions" are homeworlds, etc. The charts go above the 0-A values to record hose worlds - not to generate them.


That said, I do think that hi population worlds are quite viable in a high tech setting, and a staple of some very good SF.
However, they should be rare. Especially given the proviso that they are homeworlds of species (or sub species variants if you want to be picky)

 

[captainjack23]

So, looking at the effcts of dropping pop 0 worlds from Lo and Ni worlds (as in EDG minimal correction version), we get

Baseline	Modified
Ag	12	12
AS	3	3
Ba	3	3
De	8	8
Fl	9	9
Ga	17	17
Hi	8	8
Ic	14	14
In	4	4
Lo	17	14
Na	5	5
Ni	58	57
Po	13	13
Ri	4	4
Va	13	13
Wa	10	10

Lo 14 from 17

Ni 57 from 58

Not a biggie. Specifically, no big drop from some per subsector to none.

The Ni result is interesting in any case, and deserves a bit of discussion in a bit.


Dropping trade codes from ALL worlds with a 0 pop (probably excepting Ba for obvious reasons), has the above effects, but also drops the number of Trade code producing rolls by 126 out of 1296 - close to 10%. Which means, all the other probs (except the above) will go up proportionally for all worlds with trade codes.

Baseline        Modified
Ag	12	12
AS	3	3
Ba	3	3
De	8	8
Fl	9	9
Ga	17	17
Hi	8	9
Ic	14	14
In	4	4
Lo	17	14
Na	5	5
Ni	58	57
Po	13	13
Ri	4	4
Va	13	13
Wa	10	10

Ba doesn't change much, because isn't eliminated by a 0 pop- (1/36). Its mainly an overlap code, anyway. It would be 0 if unexempted
Lo changes, no surprise, those are the pop 0 lo worlds.

So as far as the 0 pop effects go, they are pretty safe to implement without too much change in the OTU patterns of trade.

 

[captainjack23]

Another question regarding the pop issue. One line of thought is that the pop code represents only the permanent population of the planet. If it has a starport, one can reasonably assume that there is a bigger "transient" population to service it. This might go a ways to explain why pop 0 worlds (0 or 1-9, regardless) have some trade needs.

A base on an essentially empty world may well need imports that would normally be obtained "on the economy". Its rather like those hideious atol bases in the Pacific. Population 9, but a base with 150 servicemen listening to....I dunno, the Tongans ?

Granted, this doesn't explain the pop 0 w/. type X ports (or, really E either) , but worth discussion.

I know its never been resolved one way or t'other in canon about the relation of the starport to the population digit, but perhaps this would be a good place.

One benefit of declaring the starport and the local population independent is explaining those Type A starports on pop 0 worlds (without recourse to "robots ! 100% Automation !" -which begs the question of why all type A startports aren't automated..) . They'd be analogous to the pacific in the 1930's - there was a pretty good seaplane and navy base on Wake island, with NO indigenous population, IIRC. Why ? Refueling station for the navy, and the trans pac air service -passenger and freight. It was pretty darn important, and entirely an artifact of the travel/ and trade routes.

 

[B_Steele]

Also, don't forget that certain alien species might be able to pack more of their kind into different living circumstances.

The Aslan might like open terrain like forests and grasslands, but I think the Hivers could easily pack more of their own kind (and servant races) into the same planet with a much greater population density.

 

[captainjack23]

Two more topics for discussion: In and Ni.

What the heck ?

MGT says
In Industrial worlds are dominated by factories and cities.

This suggests that they are more than just run-or the mill societies with a mixed economy. This is supported by their low frequency. If it was just a mixed type post-industrialization society, then one would expect lots more of them. Lots.

But.....

Ni Non-Industrial worlds are too low-population to maintain an industrial base.

Is a bit more problematic, particularly given the vast prevalence of Ni type worlds -even at higher tech levels. Can 50% of the empire, regardless of tech level, be preindustrial ? Ie using muscle and beast and water and wind for their production ?

Myself, I doubt it. I don;t see it as the opposite of an In world, rather a baseline that the In departs from. I think this description should focus more on it being NOT dominated by industry, ie more of a mixed or colonial type economy...the norm for the galaxy: the Riversides (no you're not expected to recognise it. ) of the world as opposed to the Detroit/chicagos.

Unfortunately, the lower limits of Ni don't really fit this either - 0,1,2 even 3 seem awfully small to support ANY economic system except at higher technology when one can assume heavy automation.

A dilemma. Thoughts about Ni worlds, especially ?

 

[JimG]

Ni Non-Industrial worlds are too low-population to maintain an industrial base.

Is a bit more problematic, particularly given the vast prevalence of Ni type worlds -even at higher tech levels. Can 50% of the empire, regardless of tech level, be preindustrial ? Ie using muscle and beast and water and wind for their production ?

My interpretation - without any extensive thought put into it - was that these worlds weren't "pre-industrial" they simply don't have the manufacturing capabilities to produce trade goods for export.

In some ways, you might consider 50% of the US to be non-industrial. It doesn't mean that Honolulu (to take an entirely random example) is low tech, but rather that it doesn't have the heavy industry producing trade goods the Detroit (another random example) does.

Again, I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about this (I've never played or run a trade-heavy game of Traveller) but I always pictured non-industrial worlds as those that import more than they export, industrial worlds being the opposite, and everything else sort of breaking even.

 

[captainjack23]

Ni Non-Industrial worlds are too low-population to maintain an industrial base.

Is a bit more problematic, particularly given the vast prevalence of Ni type worlds -even at higher tech levels. Can 50% of the empire, regardless of tech level, be preindustrial ? Ie using muscle and beast and water and wind for their production ?

My interpretation - without any extensive thought put into it - was that these worlds weren't "pre-industrial" they simply don't have the manufacturing capabilities to produce trade goods for export.

In some ways, you might consider 50% of the US to be non-industrial. It doesn't mean that Honolulu (to take an entirely random example) is low tech, but rather that it doesn't have the heavy industry producing trade goods the Detroit (another random example) does.

Again, I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about this (I've never played or run a trade-heavy game of Traveller) but I always pictured non-industrial worlds as those that import more than they export, industrial worlds being the opposite, and everything else sort of breaking even.

Excellent ! Thanks.

 

[EDG]

Ni Non-Industrial worlds are too low-population to maintain an industrial base.

Is a bit more problematic, particularly given the vast prevalence of Ni type worlds -even at higher tech levels. Can 50% of the empire, regardless of tech level, be preindustrial ? Ie using muscle and beast and water and wind for their production ?

Actually, Ni doesn't say anything about the world's tech level - it just says that they have to import their finished goods. It's based on the world's population, not its technology.

(similarly, In says nothing about technology - I guess it could be possible to have a TL 3 Industrial world since the minimum DM that could apply is that the world has pop 9 which give +2 to the tech roll).

 

[captainjack23]

Ni Non-Industrial worlds are too low-population to maintain an industrial base.

Is a bit more problematic, particularly given the vast prevalence of Ni type worlds -even at higher tech levels. Can 50% of the empire, regardless of tech level, be preindustrial ? Ie using muscle and beast and water and wind for their production ?

Actually, Ni doesn't say anything about the world's tech level - it just says that they have to import their finished goods. It's based on the world's population, not its technology..

Yeah, just speculating. I think we can agree on the import (some none or all) finished goods defonition for Ni. Which does work for the lower pop worlds.

(similarly, In says nothing about technology - I guess it could be possible to have a TL 3 Industrial world since the minimum DM that could apply is that the world has pop 9 which give +2 to the tech roll).

It needs the starport roll to be crap, but yes. That is an odd one.
Actually, looking at the Tech table, I don't even see a +2 for pop 9 .
Am I missing it ?

Regardless, Id favor a TL boost rather than a tradecode limit (or cap); I have less issues with inflating the tech levels than the Trade codes.

TL has always been a bit odd, anyway. Adding a table of mods for TL may be the answer. Suggestions about which other ones ought to effect TL ?

 

[atpollard]

A dilemma. Thoughts about Ni worlds, especially ?

How much heavy manufacturing is in Africa? They probably import most common goods from SE Asia just like Europe and the US does. Europe and the US have some significant manufacturing industry, so they are NOT Ni, but Rural areas are Ni sinc they import most of their manufactured goods.

Just some thoughts.

 

[captainjack23]

A dilemma. Thoughts about Ni worlds, especially ?

How much heavy manufacturing is in Africa? They probably import most common goods from SE Asia just like Europe and the US does. Europe and the US have some significant manufacturing industry, so they are NOT Ni, but Rural areas are Ni sinc they import most of their manufactured goods.

Just some thoughts.

Well, it really depends on the level of analysis. By continents, yes, Africa probably qualifies as Ni at least....but Would Pretoria ? Probably Not, though In might be too much.

You could probably justify modern china as In (especially given the ATM codes - do you know we get pollution from China here in CA ?) and Hi,
USA as Ht , Ri and Ag . Good trade pair, really.
They send us toy soldiers, we send them money.

Just some thoughts.

 

[Rikki Tikki Traveller]

Looking at the trade goods going OUT of Ni worlds, it seems pretty obvious that they were envisioned as mining colonies or agricutural colonies (depending on atmosphere). They import manufactured goods and export raw materials.

Rural Kansas exports raw materials (wheat and soy beans) and import manufactured goods (tractors, HD TVs, aircraft). Kansas is NOT low tech, just low industry. Except for Wichita (which makes a LOT of small airplanes) and Kansas City which is quite a large city with auto manufacturing and telecomunications and pharmecutical companies and all that kind of thing.

 

[Gruffty the Hiver]

....I think the Hivers could easily pack more of their own kind (and servant races) into the same planet with a much greater population density.

Hiver occupied worlds have areas of wilderness for the larvae to run about in (and get eaten, or not, as the case may be). Habitation tends to be as clustered groups of nests. Nests tend to be built so that the bulk of the occupied area of the nest is actually underground. Hiver cities are large collections of nests (ground-based traffic is an excellent larvae killer ), surrounded by vast tracts of wilderness. However Hiver planetary population levels are consistent; the sum total number of Hivers reaches an optimum level and can remain at that level for centuries. So, yes, Hivers can and will squeeze more Hivers into a small area, giving a larger population that covers a smaller % of the planet surface than an equivalent number of surface-living beings when living in tradtional buildings (i.e. humans).

<.........Hiver....Hiver.......HiverHiverHiver..........>

 

[atpollard]

Rural Kansas exports raw materials (wheat and soy beans) and import manufactured goods (tractors, HD TVs, aircraft). Kansas is NOT low tech, just low industry. Except for Wichita (which makes a LOT of small airplanes) and Kansas City which is quite a large city with auto manufacturing and telecomunications and pharmecutical companies and all that kind of thing.

I think that Kansas makes a terrific model for a Ni world economy - including Wichita and Kansas City. The point is that Kansas EXPORTS a lot more RESOURCES than it Imports, and IMPORTS a lot more manufactured goods than it Exports. That does not mean that it Imports no resources or Manufactures nothing or Exports no manufactured goods - it just indicates a greater chance of finding certain goods at discout prices and other goods at above average prices.

Which makes perfect sense and agrees with the Traveller Trade Tables.

 

[captainjack23]

Rural Kansas exports raw materials (wheat and soy beans) and import manufactured goods (tractors, HD TVs, aircraft). Kansas is NOT low tech, just low industry. Except for Wichita (which makes a LOT of small airplanes) and Kansas City which is quite a large city with auto manufacturing and telecomunications and pharmecutical companies and all that kind of thing.

I think that Kansas makes a terrific model for a Ni world economy - including Wichita and Kansas City. The point is that Kansas EXPORTS a lot more RESOURCES than it Imports, and IMPORTS a lot more manufactured goods than it Exports. That does not mean that it Imports no resources or Manufactures nothing or Exports no manufactured goods - it just indicates a greater chance of finding certain goods at discout prices and other goods at above average prices.

Which makes perfect sense and agrees with the Traveller Trade Tables.

Two points:

1. Kansas would qualify for an Ag code as well, based on export type and the rest, perhaps ?
2. Remember: the game was originally written and playetested in Illinois - AND not Urban Illinois, either... so having a bead on Ni and Ag codes is no surprise.:wink: