BuShips said:
Fitzwalrus, I would test this out by doing a series of repeat experiments using a series of "dummy" attacks, charting it out and marking down the results. Maybe ten sequences (or more) of several destroyer broadsides closely repeating your example. By your definition, I'd agree that it doesn't seem historical to what the weapon was capable of doing. The only question that I have currently is that by being forced to re-roll are you saying many missed the second time around? If so, then it may only be that the dice fell badly last night. Statically, if the odds are the same for the re-roll as the first attack then the re-roll should give you the same average of hits, but cut down by being forced to roll a second time from the first group of hits. It's not an excuse, but this reminds me of a U.S. destroyer that survived being hit by seven kamikazes. If you could rewind that "movie" and do it several times chances are it would instead go to the bottom under that kind of attack. Those test dice runs should indicate a problem of bad luck or instead a weakness in the torpedo rules.
I don't have either my rulebook or papers from last night's game with me, but am working from memory so bear with me.
The game effect of the Torpedo Belt was to drastically cut down the amount of damage the torpedoes were doing. Let's say the Armor number for the
South Dakota was 6+ (think it was, but not positive): to damage or critical her the IJN player with his +2 Super AP long Lances needed to roll 4+ on each DD die to score. I do remember one IJN player rolling
35 Damage Dice from one attack but do not recall his exact results: let's use a smaller number and work statistically off that. If he rolls twenty dice (four AD hits at DD5 each, a reasonable result), statistically he will score 4+ on half, or ten of them. Without the Torpedo Belt reroll he scores ten points damage, plus any Crits he might have done. However, being forced to reroll his ten damage dice by the Belt, statistically the reroll will mean only
five will roll 4+ the second time, effectively
doubling the misses the second time around and reducing the damage by half to five points, plus Crits (if any). It's not a question of rolling badly or well: the way the game mechanic is written it reduces the damage dealt
by the best torpedo in the game by 50%. With other navies' smaller and weaker torpedoes the effect will be even more pronounced because their initial chance of doing damage in the first place is lower, which translates to an
increased chance of losing the damage on the reroll.
Running a number of "test runs" is only going to confirm the statstical curve, as the die roll results will even out over the test. The point decame obvious to us last night because we were in effect running our own test program: spread after spread of Long Lances hit one or the other BB, and each time the Belt cut the damages
way down.
As I said, I can understand the Belt idea as a balance against the comparative ease of scoring torpedo hits in a game that does not require tracking of individual spreads or torps across the playing area. Among the lighter forces involved last night (DDs, CLs & CAs) the torps worked well and the carnage was what one would expect historically. It was only when we got to the Big Boys that the mechanics of the Belt rule seemed to give them much more survivability than they should have had historically.