By way of an example, I just rolled five rounds of exchanges, using a spreadsheet to generate the random numbers:
So there's 6 times that CMs were generated in that fight - and it finished on a really dramatic climax!
I've just extended my calculations to 10,000 attack/parry pairs, that's 2500 rounds of combat, and 71.63% of them resulted in one or more CMs, compared to my calculated probability of 70.8% so I think I'm in the right ballpark. (Over 100,000, it's 70.54%, so I think I was right on the nose.) The average number of attack/parry pairs that generated one or more CMs per combat round is 1.0664. The average number of CMs in a combat round, taking into account for example success vs fumble as being 2 CMs, is 1.1792.
Code:
7 v 1
69 v 42
41 v 83
28 v 66
11 v 17
81 v 78
58 v 39
95 v 98 - success vs fail
14 v 21
91 v 99 - success vs fail
97 v 58 - fail vs success
96 v 23 - fail vs success
68 v 52
93 v 81
46 v 29
4 v 87 - crit vs success
29 v 50
47 v 22
91 v 60
10 v 100 - crit vs fumbleI've just extended my calculations to 10,000 attack/parry pairs, that's 2500 rounds of combat, and 71.63% of them resulted in one or more CMs, compared to my calculated probability of 70.8% so I think I'm in the right ballpark. (Over 100,000, it's 70.54%, so I think I was right on the nose.) The average number of attack/parry pairs that generated one or more CMs per combat round is 1.0664. The average number of CMs in a combat round, taking into account for example success vs fumble as being 2 CMs, is 1.1792.
