While I understad the timeline-based approach being cited above, I don't think it's addressing Triggy's long-range concerns.
Consider each of the following steps of the proof and see if you disagree.
Lemma 1: If all ships A ... N are all balanced, a fleet list of any subset of ships cannot be more powerful than a fleet list of all ships.
Proof: Consider fleet lists A....M, and A.....N. For every fleet [see note at the bottom].
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Mould-In-Existence Contention: Any miniature made for Babylon 5 Warms will eventually be released for A Call to Arms.
Justification: The only fleets to be released with entirely new moulds in the history of A Call to Arms are the Drakh and the League member Gaim. This only occurred after every other race with a full-sized miniature (with one exception, Pak'ma'ra, just after the Drakh), had made its way to production.
The exceptions to this contention in full scale are the Resh'kas'su carrier, the Thor'not'ak Plasma Cruiser and the Gaim Moas/Markab Shafab.
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Lemma 2: The League fleet list will grow faster than any other fleet list in the next 2 years.
Proof: With the expansion of casting to support A Call to Arms with Fleet Action miniatures, there are two more races available for casting immediately, the Cascor and Hyach. These can be expected to be the next released races. By the Mould-In-Existence contention, they will be the next major miniature release.
Cascor and Hyach are members of LONAW by multiple canon sources, including onscreen.
There are no other iniatures in fleet action that have not been released as full-size miniatures in A Call to Arms.
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Corrollary 1: Given that no other rule is changed and all future released ships are balanced, League will grow more powerful over time faster than any other nationality.
Proof: Falls directly from Lemmas 1, 2, and the Mould-In-Existence Contention. The LONAW fleet list will grow more than anyone elses (Lemma 2). If no other ruling changes, all other races will only grow more powerful by small amounts; at most, by variants and perhaps an individual hull or two. LONAW will grow by entire races. Therefore, by Lemma 1, it will become more powerful. It grows more powerful faster than any other force due by Lemma 2.
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Theorem 1 (Imbalance of National League Theorem): It is impossible to create perfect balance between any League fleet and any National League fleet of national units.
Proof: For every National League Fleet of ships A...J , there exists an identical League Fleet A...J. However, the Full League fleet listing contains each National League fleet listing as a whole subset of A....N. We then apply Lemma 1 to achieve our result.
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Theorem 2 (League Evolution Theorem): Given the current restrictions, it is impossible to balance LONAW now and LONAW in the future unless other balance flaws are introduced.
Proof: We prove by contradiction. Suppose that both conditions are true. If the LONAW is balanced now, its winning percentage against the Narn will be 0.50. Similarly, if it is balanced in the future, its winning percentage there will also be 0.50.
By Lemma 1, LONAW will become more powerful over time. Therefore, the Narn must grow more powerful in time as well. If all future units are balanced correctly, the only way for this to occur is rule change or by expanding the Narn fleet listing at the same rate as the LONAW fleet listing. However, this directly contradicts Corrollary 1. Therefore, our original assertion cannot be true.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
So, what can we do to stop these two results?
Fundamentally said, there has to be a non-campaign over-the-board reason to take a national list over a LONAW list. If the National lists are balanced, that means you have to take away from LONAW somewhere. The current proposal is a system of exception caps and intitiative bonuses and penalties. Other ideas that have less impact on already-purchased mini armies is, of course, strongly preferred.
Note: Yes, I know, I have to fill in Lemma 1, but it's getting late and I sort of have the proof in my head. I'll fill it in tomorrow. Sorry.