There is only one salvo, but it is four times as big as you describe.
Core'22, pg 172 defines a salvo as all missiles launched by a single ship towards a single target.
Goodnesss, what a blunder. I guess it's been a while since I've missile salvo'd at the table.
With that correction in mind, it changes matters somewhat, as there is now one salvo of 12 instead of 3 salvos of 4. Because each salvo can only be targeted once per round, this means there are four opportunities to countermeasure before the missiles hit. Running similar math about the percentage chance of each dice roll and how many missiles that would eliminate from the swarm, the EW is 74% effective, meaning if it's getting EWed once every round, the final number of missiles to get through is 3.59. If half of those hit, it's still 17.95 damage, which kills the harrier in 5 rounds after the missiles start arriving.
Don't forget the radiation damage. It's possible for a couple of hits to take out the entire crew, disabled or dead. The particle accelerator is just scary.
The hull of a ship decreases radiation exposure to those inside by 500. The Harrier's attack deals 2D x 60 rads. Anything less than an 8 on that dice is going to get absorbed by the hull. What is going to happen is 72.22% of the time, it's going to bounce off the hull, 19.44% of the time it's going to deal 60 or 120 rads, causing 1D (av 3.5) damage, and 8.34% (11+) of the time it's going to do 180 or 240 rads, inflicting 2D (av 7) damage. It's enough to injure, but you'd have to get lucky to debilitate, especially given that the enemy crew effected would be determined by where the blast hits. If you irradiate the bridge one shot and the engineering the next, it's not going to stack.
Rad is juicy and it gives you a chance to make a decisive blow on a high roll, but it's unreliable. The reason Meson weapons are so brutal is because the armor penetration ignores radiation shielding and hull protections entirely, so you're dealing lethal rad doses on over half your hits.
Thanks for putting in the work on a full description of the maths!
Unfortunately, my group has 6 crew members, one of whom (allegedly a doctor) has Electronics (Sensors) 3 and is already investing his experience points into raising it to a fourth level after our first space combat. They've never played Traveller before (except the sensor ops guy himself who played CT in the early 80s) but they're an experienced group who will optimise any remaining risk/fun out of the fight asap
I was more presenting a generic 'stock' Harrier than your specific game table, but sure, let's see what that would look like...
Okay, so looking at the corrected rules, in which it is one salvo of 12 and not 4 salvos of 3, running the averages, your +3 sens op is going to reduce the missile swarm from 12 to 6. Over the next few rounds as the missile makes its way towards you, your other sensor op (who appear to be 0, since you said your sens 1 is on the guns) reduce these missiles my 26% each, meaning when it gets to you, you're still dealing with 2.43 missiles per round, on average. If half of those hit, it's 12.15 damage a round on average, destroying the Harrier in 8 rounds once you start taking damage.
If you have a triple point defense pulse turret (total bonus +5) is going to reduce it about the same as your good sense op, so that's a 50% reduction. On average you've got 1.43 getting in per round, 0.715 hitting you, and 7.15 damage, which isn't a lot, but it still takes you down in 12 rounds.
If you turn and flee from the missiles, you could drag things out, giving yourself an extra round or two to EW, reducing it by a further 26% each, but those are rounds you're not going to be doing damage to the enemy ship.
I was kinda hoping someone would point out I was being a dumbo and totally mis-reading the EW rules or something!
Well, it depends on if you read the bit in High Guard (53) where it says about Sensor Stations
"With only a single sensor station, the ship can only perform one of these tasks in a given round." to mean one task or one type of task.
I should probably make more of a "what ship build gimmicks/combos would you use to challenge that crew in the Harrier?" Obviously I can kill them, of course, but what opposition would make for interesting peer-level fights to throw in amongst the regular, piratical, one-sided encounters?
Have you considered throwing them into a mirror match? Have a small, fast, stealthy ship go after them that uses the same dirty tricks they do.