I assume the 1500 heavy fighters carried by the Tigresses are factored into all of that?
Also, don't know about your Hornets, but the Tigress has Evasion software that should reduce the to hit value of all incoming attacks by 3, even if the pilot is spending all Thrust and so can't evade.
No, I neglected the fighters.I do not believe they will be relevant, but I add them in.
They have Evade/2 and Man-9G -- so they close faster than the Tigresses, and get to 'Very Long' range in turn four instead of turn five. They each have more missiles, and a single (un-upgraded) Beam laser turret; their lasers cannot get through the armor of the Hornets at all. They can put anther 1500 missiles into flight; those will arrive on turn turn six. Tho hornets fire the 800x Large Meson Bays; avg roll of 7 +5 for fire control +2 for High Automation +1 for crew skill -4 for small target -4 for 'Very Distant' range (I forgot that one earlier, oops.) and -2 for Evade/2; this is not a hit on average so let's break it down:
22 results of '12' (effect +2), 44 results of '11' (effect +1), 66 rolls of '10' (effect +0) -- the rest miss.
132 fighters destroyed in round four; round five they get a reprieve as the Hornets shoot at the Tigresses.
Round six, and the remaining Tigresses are destroyed, the Hornets have Evade/3, and the Fighters can close at 1G -- but now they are at 'Long' range, and will be for ~2 turns, losing ~100 fighters per turn.
Turn nine, the Hornets are in 'Medium' range of the fighters, and Fusion Barbettes are doing ( avg of 7 +2.5 Fire Control +1 Skill +2 High Automation +1 'Accurate' -2 Evasion/2 -0 Medium range = effect 6.5 ), easily hitting for (17.5+6.5) = 24 -15 = 9x3 = 27 damage. Each Hornet has 2x fusion barbettes
The Hornet has Evade/3 and 9G of Man, so it has an edge against the Evade/2 and 6G Tigress. If the Tigresses and Hornets only closed at 10G, using the rest for Evasion, then the Tigresses have five turns to launch missiles before the first shots are fired -- but the missiles are still at least two turns out when things get hairy.
Turn 1 missiles = 430 x 5 x 12 /2 (long flight time) = 12900, impact on turn eight
Turn 2 missiles = 430 x 5 x 12 /2 (long flight time) = 12900 impact on turn nine
Turn 3 missiles = 430 x 5 x 12 /2 (long flight time) = 12900 impact on turn ten
Turn 4 missiles = 430 x 5 x 12 /2 (long flight time) = 12900 impact on turn eleven, plus 1500 impact on turn six
Turn 5 missiles = 430 x 5 x 12 /2 (long flight time) = 25800 impact on turn seven, plus 1400 impact on turn seven
Turn 6 missiles = 430 x 1 x 12 = 5160 impact on turn eight, plus 1300 impact on turn eight
Depending on how the missiles are adjudicated, this might be up to 3650 'salvos' per round. I am going to figure the fighters are in 'squadrons' of 12, so all together they launch the equivalent of 25 more 'Small Missile Bays'. Assuming no EW against the missiles, each 24 'Small Missile Bay' worth destroys one Hornet.
Turn six, 50 Hornets are destroyed by missiles; turn seven, 95; turn eight, 68; turn nine, 45 Hornets & 1174 fighters are destroyed; turn ten, 49 more Hornets and the remaining fighters.
Hornets will take fewer casualties than this with EW, but I didn't want to bother with it.