After 1619 I figure that Pavis becomes even more of a backwater as far as the Lunars are concerned. They take Karse which is a much more valuable port than Corflu. Pavis was simply the most expedient route to the sea back in 1610 when the Holy Country was intact and powerful. This would help to create the circumstances whereby Pavis could be retaken in a military uprising. However, before 1625 I don't think it would work in the long (or perhaps even the short) term.
I think this also explains why a bunch of mere adventurers and heroes (albeit a somewhat important one) manage to succeed in liberating the cradle in 1621?
Whilst my instinct is to search for reasons why the Lunars wouldn't use the Crimson Bat on Pavis if it was lost to them, it seems to be the perfect target. However, I think that the likely outcome of your insurrection would be that your characters will be killed by Pavic interests out of fear of Lunar retribution (embodied in the Bat) and nomad/troll incursions. At this time the Lunar Empire are IMHO the best allies the Pavis temple have. The Pavis temple is interested in Pavis - not 'freedom at any cost'. The anti-Lunar sentiment in Pavis is generally a product of Sartarite expatriots. The Sun Towners are pro-Lunar, The Riversiders want the status quo, etc.
Prior to the Dragonrise, the Lunar Empire is simply too powerful in the region. Having said that I don't know the events in your campaign. I could envisage a Champion of Pavis leading a successful popular uprising. I don't think Sartarite expats would be popular enough with the other factions - they have too much to lose.
what side of newpavis connects to the rubble i have a map of new pavis but its unclear what is where out side the walls any one know
Find the ziggurat against the wall. That's the Pavis Temple. It is up against the Rubble Wall.
If I were your characters, and I don't know their motivations, but I'd consider grabbing as much wealth as I could carry and doing a runner. You'll need to get a thief cult to cast a Divination Block, however, because I think your party may be marked for some unpleasantness...
Just some lazy sunday musings over tea and toast...