katadder said:
ok they might not get by as many weapons in one salvo but i would say they get hit more often. a warlock firing its missiles, railgun and beam needing 5+ to see a sharlin would on average get one weapon per turn under this.
under current rules hes likely to get them all 1 in 3 turns. now if its the 1st turn you lose out. but 2nd or 3rd you have had the chance to fire a couple of times without being shot and so works out better for minbos.
rolling once per weapon like i said is more effective over all as you can reduce minbari firepower on a more regular basis, therefore they would need toughening up as they really are quite fragile currently (usually damage of a ship one LP lower with 33% thresholds).
Seriously dude, just don't even talk about statistics any more, it really isn't your strong point. Different people have different strengths and weaknesses, your weakness is statistics. As Hash pointed out a while back you go with your "gut feeling" and I go with maths. Neither is bad or wrong, but your statistical arguements are
always just plain incorrect.
Existing rules... you have a 1 in 3 chance of passing your 5+ stealth check. Therefore:
Weapon number 1 has a 1 in 3 chance of being able to fire.
Weapon number 2 has a 1 in 3 chance of being able to fire.
Weapon number 3 has a 1 in 3 chance of being able to fire.
Rolling per weapon:
Weapon number 1 has a 1 in 3 chance of being able to fire.
Weapon number 2 has a 1 in 3 chance of being able to fire.
Weapon number 3 has a 1 in 3 chance of being able to fire.
It's the same.
Standard deviation, however, is lower when you're rolling per weapon.
I won't argue with your gut feeling, if you don't argue with my maths