2300AD, thoughts and wishes
- Thread starter Colin
- Start date
Colin
Mongoose
2300AD already features an alternate timeline. It postulates WWIII starting around 1995 or so. If I can, I would like to move away from the alternate reality and towards something possible, at least to the extent that it could could in our future. That was part of the appeal of 2300AD to me.
The trick is to make it plausible.
The trick is to make it plausible.
I could imagine a single one: Internal problems between northern (dog-EDG said:
matic) and southern (progressive) China, an attempt by the Chinese go-
vernment to re-unite the nation with a "short and victorious war" to re-
conquer southern Siberia ("stolen from China with the treaties forced
upon it"), a desperate attempt by Russia to stop the numerically and al-
so technologically superior Chinese forces with tactical nukes, retaliation
by China ...
In such a scenario the nukes would "only" hit China and Russia, but the
consequences of such a nuclear exchange could be bad enough (e.g. a
"year without summer", failed harvests in Asia, breakdown of the Pacific
economy ...) to trigger a series of regional conflicts that could draw some
more nations into the war (e.g. the USA and its allies via South Korea or
Taiwan) and destabilize the global system for some decades.
However, this is by far the worst "realistic" scenario I can currently ima-
gine, and I do not really consider it as very plausible.
Colin
Mongoose
To go back to my asteroid idea (yeah, I'm like a dog with a bone). What if it were detected, and an ESA/NASA diversion mission launched. One that was too little, too late, so that instead of hitting in the Pacific ocean, it hits in Russia or China instead. Would that trigger a round of retaliatory strikes?
The problem is, if we postulate a future without some sort of technological collapse, then 2300AD would/should look more like Eclipse Phase with star drives.
2300AD was always more like 1980's + 20 years in space, at least in terms of technology. Even now, I look at it as more like 2010 + 20 years, rather than the far-out Transhumanism of Eclipse Phase.
The problem is, if we postulate a future without some sort of technological collapse, then 2300AD would/should look more like Eclipse Phase with star drives.
2300AD was always more like 1980's + 20 years in space, at least in terms of technology. Even now, I look at it as more like 2010 + 20 years, rather than the far-out Transhumanism of Eclipse Phase.
A
Anonymous
Guest
Colin said:
It would if the ESA/NASA mission knock it from its course and made it hit Russia, that would be reason for a pre-emptive launch.
Hmmm ...Colin said:
Imagine a situation where Russia appears especially weak, and China
decides to use the opportunity to pressure Russia to return the Wladi-
wostok region and goes as far as "declaring the use of force as not ex-
cluded" (as it did for the "Taiwan problem"), tensions building up along
Amur and Ussuri, there are some minor cross frontier skirmishes (the
kind we have seen during the 1970s) - and then a Russian space mis-
sion to deflect an asteroid fails, and that asteroid hits a Chinese town
in Manchuria ...
In such a case, a nuclear retaliation would in my view still be very un-
likely, but I would not consider it as impossible.
Colin said:
Doubtful. Nobody's going to be dumb enough to blame anybody else for an asteroid not being deflected. And Russia and China have scientists as well who can run the numbers and realise that the effort isn't going to work, and they can do it long enough to get everyone out of immediate harm's way.
And there's no telling where we'll be in 20 years
. What with climate change, evolving biotechnologies, portable computers in our phones (and probably in our clothes or even brains by then), the future is looking more "far out" every day. And in the 1980s we didn't really have the internet. Now we do. That's changed everything. Everyone is connected (whether they want to be or not, in some cases), information spreads around much faster, the time gap between events happening and the cause of those events being determined is almost non-existent nowadays compared to what it was 20 or 40 years ago, and we're a much more global community. We simply can't have the same future we could have projected 20 or 30 years ago, because things have changed so much.
I think it could only "work" if one side could believe that the other sideEDG said:
faked an accident but actually did it on purpose - something like much
of the first Chinese reaction to the USA accidentally bombing the Chi-
nese embassy in Belgrade during the air campaign against Serbia.
Just in case you do not remember the event, from Wikipedia:
"On May 7, 1999 in Operation Allied Force, Six NATO bombs hit the Peo-
ple's Republic of China (PRC) Embassy in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, killing
three PRC citizens and outraging the PRC public.
(...)
NATO later apologized for the bombing, saying that it occurred because
of an "outdated map provided by the CIA". Few Chinese accepted this
explanation, believing the strike had been deliberate."
captainjack23
Cosmic Mongoose
rust said:
Sidebar on this: Its worth noting that the embassies communications and intelligence wing was part of the damage, and that it was an open secret that the Chinese were supplying intel to the Yugoslavians in exchange for first dibs on any useful tech produced from them tagging one of our high tech aircraft -which they did. I've always felt that we got off waaaaay easy for that bombing -almost as if it was more of a "quid pro quo" after a handslap.....
This may well be true, but in this case it would have been an operation
with a very high escalation risk - just imagine how it would have conti-
nued if a Chinese mob had not only harrassed a couple of US citizens,
but had - intentionally or not - killed some female US students who hap-
pened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time ...
And back on topic, that was my point: Operations like this happen, and
they can "misfire" and start a chain of events that can spiral out of con-
trol - under the worst possible circumstances perhaps even leading to
an armed conflict.
with a very high escalation risk - just imagine how it would have conti-
nued if a Chinese mob had not only harrassed a couple of US citizens,
but had - intentionally or not - killed some female US students who hap-
pened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time ...
And back on topic, that was my point: Operations like this happen, and
they can "misfire" and start a chain of events that can spiral out of con-
trol - under the worst possible circumstances perhaps even leading to
an armed conflict.
captainjack23
Cosmic Mongoose
Colin said:
Fair enough. So, it seems you need to pick a date for a catastrophy that will allow all of us to be dead and unable to note when time catches up, while giving enough time for recovery.
I agree with Doc that accidents and single terrorist actions, or disasters with long prep time aren't going to trigger a major nuclear war -it has to be somthing that puts the varous powers in fear of their existance -and fearing the possibility that their deterrent will be destroyed if they wait; or that they have already been hit with overwhelming force and have only a retributive strike left.
The asteroid isn't bad at all. As to provoking a nuclear exchange, you'll want to read or recall Lucifer's hammer, which involves a strike by a cometary nucleus (lots of small hits) which results in a premptive strike by chna on the (then) soviet union, to forstall the soviets need to migrate south once the resultant impact winter sets in.
IIRC, the soviet launch on detection of the chinese attack (still the policy, BTW, and why misfires and contact errors are a big fear); the US has been similarly primed fr an attack, and launches on warning of the soviet launches -which are primarily aimed at china, but still have a limited counterstrike. BOOM !. Not a full scale exchange, but a biggish one. Another novel, I cant remember , supposed a solar flare blasting either the soviet union or the US, cutting off all communications and control. And then, according to protocol, the surviving deeper silos and subs fire when out of communications for a set period.
Its not hard to imagine some kind of event like that which would trigger that nowadays -nuke wise, the situation is closer to the 1960's than the late cold war -the soviets and Chinese still only have about 10% of the US strike capacity -so it's set for hair trigger response - as we could certainly knock out nearly all their sites if they wait for a detonation......smoke em if ya got em.
A major, sudden climactic change has the potential for everone to start thinking that the lifeboat won't have enough seats......and the smaller nuclear powers could quite feasably decide that with the big boys distracted, its time to sort out old grudges....Israel, Iran, India Pakistan, N. Korea; and probably others. Only one of them needs to panic.
And a brief warning of such a disaster (like an incoming impact)may do more harm than good, too, as politicians have time to make decisions, but not enough to talk or make good decisions.
Interestingly, if Russia and china and china are most worried about each other, and the US, Europe may well do better than it would have in the cold war when the USSR and Warsaw pact has ample nukes to hit Europe and the USA - not the case now. Note that I'm assuming that the USA won't pull down the temple as it were, if it looks to be destroyed -at least as far as striking non enemies.
captainjack23
Cosmic Mongoose
rust said:
Yes exactly. Please note that if the operation did happen as it might have, I never said it was a good idea. But it is a good idea of how a plan that mistakes boldness for riskiness can start an escalation that wasn't deemed possible. One can argue that that is exactly what happened when Poland was invaded in WWII.
WWI and WWII both had worlds ripe for chaos, only a small flame was needed to set it off. WWI was a certain Duke being assassinated. WWII was German aggression and Japan thinking they had to project power in the Pacific in order to stay economically viable. I would postulate that the current state of affairs are just as viable for world chaos as just before WWI or WWII. I think it isn't a stretch to think a small match could set off WWIII.
Dave Chase
Mongoose
Colin,
I would suggest that if you have time, rent the movie Impact
It has asteriods hitting earth (doing little damage) a big one which is piece of an brown dwarf hitting the moon.
One of the scientist answers was to launch like 1500 nuke missiles in series of explosions to make things right again.
It might give you some ideas.
Dave Chase
I would suggest that if you have time, rent the movie Impact
It has asteriods hitting earth (doing little damage) a big one which is piece of an brown dwarf hitting the moon.
One of the scientist answers was to launch like 1500 nuke missiles in series of explosions to make things right again.
It might give you some ideas.
Dave Chase
Doc.Savage
Mongoose
The idea that great power conflicts in the 21st century are 'unrealistic' strikes me as remarkably naive, hopeful wishful-thinking at best. Human nature being what it is; peace is a hypothetical state of affairs whose existence has been deduced from the fact that there have been intervals between wars.
What will spark the regional war that will spill out of control into a general conflict, impossible to say; but when states believe that vital interests are at stake (and these aren't necessarily actual vital interests, just perceived interests) or the legitimacy of a state is in question, all bets are off.
Yes, the astro-political situation of 2300AD is analogous to that of the 19th century, but that's one of the interesting bits. It's Space:1889 with caseless assault rifles and combat-implants, but it makes the setting both interesting and full of conflict simmering but not boiling. The Twilight War/Asteroid Impact is necessary to get this setting; the natural options being zivilizational blocks, final empire, or a mad max world slowly dying.
Which is a long winded way of saying; go ahead Colin, a general twilight war punctuated with a small impact works for me.
What will spark the regional war that will spill out of control into a general conflict, impossible to say; but when states believe that vital interests are at stake (and these aren't necessarily actual vital interests, just perceived interests) or the legitimacy of a state is in question, all bets are off.
Yes, the astro-political situation of 2300AD is analogous to that of the 19th century, but that's one of the interesting bits. It's Space:1889 with caseless assault rifles and combat-implants, but it makes the setting both interesting and full of conflict simmering but not boiling. The Twilight War/Asteroid Impact is necessary to get this setting; the natural options being zivilizational blocks, final empire, or a mad max world slowly dying.
Which is a long winded way of saying; go ahead Colin, a general twilight war punctuated with a small impact works for me.
in my view a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan is realistic, they've come close several times in the last 20 years. If that happens then it is possibleIran would go "hey lets get rid of Israel", Israel would retaliate along side the US, Russia/China would most likely retaliate back and then the whole place goes to hell.
or there could be a second korean war. N. Korea seeing the US tied down in the Middle East, (Iraq, Afganistan, with a view towards Kazakstan (rich in natural resources that are largely untapped by any major power) and possibly Iran in the near future) decides its time to united the country (hence the recent testing of missiles) The US, finding itself in a loosing position, takes out North Korea after a series of nuke strikes during the first rounds of the war.
I think there are enough grudges, bad blood, and the ever growing presence of resources running out to cause all sorts of nuclear fun in the near future.
or there could be a second korean war. N. Korea seeing the US tied down in the Middle East, (Iraq, Afganistan, with a view towards Kazakstan (rich in natural resources that are largely untapped by any major power) and possibly Iran in the near future) decides its time to united the country (hence the recent testing of missiles) The US, finding itself in a loosing position, takes out North Korea after a series of nuke strikes during the first rounds of the war.
I think there are enough grudges, bad blood, and the ever growing presence of resources running out to cause all sorts of nuclear fun in the near future.
kafka
Mongoose
rust said:
Small worlds...my Grandfather got away because he was speaking Swabian to a military judge when the Gestapo arrested him for sabotage and collaborating with the Partisans. He was guilty. But, the judge who was impressed with his German (he was born under the KuK). So Bavaria must stay in some form in 2300.
One could still attribute the fragmentation of Europe to the Rise of of the Nations Party with the likes of Le Pen or a Haider being European President one would get a very different EU.
Thing is...just like in Traveller just because someone is from Germany it does not preclude them from being ethnically Chinese...as nationality is equated with cultural affliation.
Britain tries to take advantage of the disorder in Europe and promulgates the idea of the Commonwealth should join together and recreate the Empire. Traditional ties to America, vis-a-vis the Special Relationship alienate EU public opinion force Britain to choose between Europe and America. Britain opts for the latter when the French demand that British troops be placed under French command (the beginnings of the French Peace) rather than NATO to assist in the pan-European recovery.
All told doing Twilight as a vague concept being the shift between hegemonic powers rather than an actual hot war seems to be the way to go. Much as the Napoleonic Wars shaped Europe are but a vague memory in the lives the average citizen 300yrs later save the occasional festival or collective memory. Twilight therefore becomes synomious with Dark Ages America or simply years of trouble. Plus, remember, it is the French writing the history. So, the decline and ascent of France would be coloured by a mythology.
Rikki Tikki Traveller
Cosmic Mongoose
Colin said:
I did that on purpose! :twisted:
I was in the Navy stationed at the Submarine Base in Bremerton. I have been to Victoria several times (Love the city and Bushardt (sp?) Gardens).
I have family in Seattle and Portland.
Colin
Mongoose
It's a tough call, alright. And even if I do find a scenario that resonates with me, others (ahem) may say no. While I love 2300AD, there are sometimes issues when you play in someone else sandbox.
On to technology. I want to add a few bits of tech that 2300AD didn't have. I squeezed some of them into 2320, but I want to make them more integrated into the background for the new version.
We have robotics being very common in the Core, fairly rare on the Frontier. That's domestic robots, courier robots, construction robots, autodrive cars, industrial robots, waiter robots, all combining to give a weird edge to play in the Core. Surveillance robots, spy drones, Gun Dogs, No true artificial intelligence, but some stuff that comes pretty close
More exotic vehicles: in addition to normal ground cars, we have monowheels, enclosed recumbent motorcycles, shape-changing supercars, articulated tracked crawlers, heavy-than-water "flying" submarines (see Deep Flight) and subfighters. personal rotorpacks, flying frickin' cars, expeditionary hover tanks, heavy tracked tanks with guns that shoot through schools (and mountains), tilt-rotor gunships, x-wing gunships, LTAs
Walkers: Let's take a cue from the Japanese in terms of design aesthetic. Combat walkers with big honking plasma guns, and hard points for machine guns, mini guns, point defense, missile launchers and other good stuff.
Medical nanotech, augmented reality, surveillance swarms,
And broken-down fission-powered tractors up on blocks to provide power to an isolated community in the Deep Back of Ellis, a pulley made from industrial nylon stretched from the one working drive wheel to run a grain mill and a deep well pump. Picture scrawny chickens and fat little sheep grazing at the base of the slowly-rusting hulk of the 50-yar-old tractor, kept running through luck and uncommon skill. No robots, but a couple of UAVs are used for crop-watching and precision pesticide deployment.
On to technology. I want to add a few bits of tech that 2300AD didn't have. I squeezed some of them into 2320, but I want to make them more integrated into the background for the new version.
We have robotics being very common in the Core, fairly rare on the Frontier. That's domestic robots, courier robots, construction robots, autodrive cars, industrial robots, waiter robots, all combining to give a weird edge to play in the Core. Surveillance robots, spy drones, Gun Dogs, No true artificial intelligence, but some stuff that comes pretty close
More exotic vehicles: in addition to normal ground cars, we have monowheels, enclosed recumbent motorcycles, shape-changing supercars, articulated tracked crawlers, heavy-than-water "flying" submarines (see Deep Flight) and subfighters. personal rotorpacks, flying frickin' cars, expeditionary hover tanks, heavy tracked tanks with guns that shoot through schools (and mountains), tilt-rotor gunships, x-wing gunships, LTAs
Walkers: Let's take a cue from the Japanese in terms of design aesthetic. Combat walkers with big honking plasma guns, and hard points for machine guns, mini guns, point defense, missile launchers and other good stuff.
Medical nanotech, augmented reality, surveillance swarms,
And broken-down fission-powered tractors up on blocks to provide power to an isolated community in the Deep Back of Ellis, a pulley made from industrial nylon stretched from the one working drive wheel to run a grain mill and a deep well pump. Picture scrawny chickens and fat little sheep grazing at the base of the slowly-rusting hulk of the 50-yar-old tractor, kept running through luck and uncommon skill. No robots, but a couple of UAVs are used for crop-watching and precision pesticide deployment.
