Twilight 2014

[ShawnDriscoll]

Maybe you'd care to elaborate a little bit on why you think Russia would go unopposed if they decided to move further afield from their current Ukrainian incursion?

For one, who is going to stop Russia? Some Ukrainians might try to fight back. The US already gave its "Severe Consequences for Russia" speech. So who will stop Russia? Recent history shows how reliable countries have been at helping Iran, Egypt, Libya, and Syria citizens over-throw their dictators. And how Iraq and Afghanistan were given up on.

 

[dragoner]

I'll just leave this here.

https://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/UKRANIANMILITARYDISPOSITIONS_RUSIBRIEFING.pdf

 

[Balfuset790]

Maybe you'd care to elaborate a little bit on why you think Russia would go unopposed if they decided to move further afield from their current Ukrainian incursion?

For one, who is going to stop Russia? Some Ukrainians might try to fight back. The US already gave its "Severe Consequences for Russia" speech. So who will stop Russia? Recent history shows how reliable countries have been at helping Iran, Egypt, Libya, and Syria citizens over-throw their dictators. And how Iraq and Afghanistan were given up on.

A fair point, but the conversation drifted to speculation. What if Russia wanted to, say, invade the UK. You can damn well bet we'd stop them! That's what I meant. Your statement implied that Russia had free reign to do ANYTHING they cared to, because there was no clarification about what you explicitly meant. Therefore when the discussion moved towards Russia expanding their sights to other European areas, your statement said that no-one could or would fight them if they invaded, say, Germany, France, Spain etc.

That's very obviously not the case.

 

[ShawnDriscoll]

What if Russia wanted to, say, invade the UK. You can damn well bet we'd stop them!

That's interesting. I think some citizens in the UK would fight back. The citizens might have to fight their UK government first though. Are most people in the UK armed?

 

[Balfuset790]

What if Russia wanted to, say, invade the UK. You can damn well bet we'd stop them!

That's interesting. I think some citizens in the UK would fight back. They might have to fight the UK government first though. Are most people in the UK armed?

Wait, are you honestly saying that you think the UK government would just let Russia invade our country without mobilising our armed forces to retaliate?

 

[ShawnDriscoll]

Wait, are you honestly saying that you think the UK government would just let Russia invade our country without mobilising our armed forces to retaliate?

Other than from the UKIP, I don't think the political will to fight the Russians is all there.

 

[Balfuset790]

Wait, are you honestly saying that you think the UK government would just let Russia invade our country without mobilising our armed forces to retaliate?

Other than from the UKIP, I don't think the political will to fight the Russians is all there.

...you're joking, right?

You're basically saying that a nation with one of the most well-funded armed forces in the world does not value its independence enough to fight back against an aggressor invading their soil. Am I the only one who thinks the whole concept of that statement is ludicrous?

I'm sorry, but I think we're going to have to disagree on this one. Russia is not somehow magically immune to retribution. By your argument they could rule the world if they so chose, and they are by no means significantly different from the US, the UK, China or anyone else in that regard. This is already off-topic enough, I won't drag this on any more than it has to.

 

[ShawnDriscoll]

When I say "fight back", I mean "win". You won't fight back. No one will fight back except for maybe China. Russia is playing Game of Thrones. Oceania is playing Downton Abbey.

 

[Balfuset790]

When I say "fight back", I mean "win". You won't fight back. No one will fight back except for maybe China. Russia is playing Game of Thrones. Oceania is playing Downton Abbey.

Y'see that's a valuable piece of clarification there that helps prevent some of the confusion I was initially talking about.

Now I'll hand it to you that the UK's military spending budget is smaller than Russia's by about 30 billion USD. And possibly if we were on our own versus a full-scale Russian invasion then it might well result in a victory for them. But I'm pretty sure the Commonwealth nations would pitch in troops, as would the US.

If Russia invaded the UK we'd be looking at World War III, and that would not end well for Russia in my opinion.

 

[dragoner]

Putin's corruption makes Berlusconi look amateurish, Russia is one of the most corrupt nations on earth, definitely of the major powers; Putin pockets one fifth of the military budget. Somehow the Ukraine has found a way to be even worse, so two rotten and corrupt nations are having troubles. Both will easily fall if anyone hit them hard but in the new modern theory of "you break it, you bought it" nobody has the will to fix either Russia or the Ukraine, which is actually the real heartbreaker here for the people that live in those countries.

 

[Tom Kalbfus]

Poland might.
1. There are ethnic Poles in the Ukraine
2. Much of Ukrainian territory was at one time incorporated in the Polish State
There is this map:

http://info-poland.buffalo.edu/classroom/LFigs/Fig10.pdf
And there is this map:

http://info-poland.buffalo.edu/classroom/LFigs/Fig3.pdf
Do you think Poland is not thinking or recovering some of this territory?
Do you think Poland would let Russia have it all? They might at least send in troops to recover the pre World War II territory it had and which Stalin forced them to give up after World War II.
3. Also Poland probably doesn't want Russian troops on its border, getting ready to invade their country, because they share a border with Ukraine, its not automatic that all of Ukraine goes back to Russia. If Ukraine collapses under Russian assault, Poland may try to grab back some of the territory it lost.

 

[Anonymous]

post deleted

 

[dragoner]

Poland might.

No, they won't.

 

[IanBruntlett]

Poland might.

No, they won't.

Berwick Upon Tweed might - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berwick-upon-Tweed#Relations_with_Russia

 

[dragoner]

Poland might.

No, they won't.

Berwick Upon Tweed might - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berwick-upon-Tweed#Relations_with_Russia

:lol: Hilarious, thanks, I have not seen that.

Russia and Poland do share a border in the Kaliningrad Oblast http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad_Oblast

Still nothing will happen I don't think, the only NATO country with power projection capability is the US, and America is sick of war for the most part. The UK, as the Financial capital of the world, sits on more treasure than Smaug, but war would hurt that more then help; so politically, I think nothing will be done.

 

[Wil Mireu]

Surely realworld political discussion is not allowed on this board?

 

[Tom Kalbfus]

Berwick Upon Tweed might - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berwick-upon-Tweed#Relations_with_Russia

:lol: Hilarious, thanks, I have not seen that.

Russia and Poland do share a border in the Kaliningrad Oblast http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad_Oblast

Still nothing will happen I don't think, the only NATO country with power projection capability is the US, and America is sick of war for the most part. The UK, as the Financial capital of the world, sits on more treasure than Smaug, but war would hurt that more then help; so politically, I think nothing will be done.

Poland doesn't have to project power just to send troops across the Ukrainian/Polish border, aircraft carriers aren't required for this. The Ukrainians would let them right in, as they need all the help they can get right now. Its as simple as putting Polish tanks on a flatbed railroad car.

 

[dragoner]

That is power projection, war is more logistics than anything else; but Poland can't go it alone without abandoning NATO, nor absorbing millions of Ukrainians into their society.

 

[Tom Kalbfus]

That is power projection, war is more logistics than anything else; but Poland can't go it alone without abandoning NATO, nor absorbing millions of Ukrainians into their society.

Logistic would be fairly easy if all they want to do is move up to their pre-World War II border with the defunct Soviet Union, its not like Ukrainians would be sabotaging their supply lines. And Putin will be weighing the possible gains of that sliver or territory with the possible risk of engaging NATO. I think Putin might conclude the gains of that sliver of territory would not be worth the risk of possible engagement with all of NATO. Absorbing millions of Ukrainians into their society would mean absorbing all their skills and talents into its economy, this would help Poland's economy grow faster. Ukrainians aren't Mexican Peasants after all, they are not illiterate ad only capable of picking crops. Some of them by the way know how to build nuclear bombs, Poland will want that!

 

[Condottiere]

I doubt that Putin wants to ignite WWIII, since being President for Life is less attractive if there is a potential for recall by nuclear warhead; besides megalomania, having grasped the reins of power of the Russian bear he might not be able to give them up, since he'd risk getting eaten either by the bear, or the wolves running behind him.