Success and symmetry T/E redux ?

captainjack23

Cosmic Mongoose
Hi all. Back again. I'm hoping this might be a good place for a sane look at the old T/E issues, and more generally, the issue of success and failure in RPG task resolution.

Caveat: I tried to get into this on CoTI and unfortunately both ran into, and inflamed at least one major anti-T/E proponent; and generally added to the rancor until it was locked (ta, Aramis). I'm really hoping to not do this here.

That said, I was involved somewhat in the T/E issue, abeit not passionately at the time (I was mixing it up with someone else on another petty point, to my regret).

Here's how I saw it as developing, with specific reference to the issues only, and NOT the personalities or persons.
My initial observation was that the main bone of contention was that what seemed to be causing the issue was how a high success dice result was described -the original description was very "whammo blammo" IIRC (I'm not quoting); then it was toned down.

However then the stat argument came up...in a nutshell it showed that for natural rolls, and for some of the skills addition systems, that "good" successes" were way more common than "bad failures" regardless of what you called them. Successful rolls had to have more 5 and 6 results athan 1 &2 results; but the converse was somewhat less true for failures.

This was esentially saying that any attempt to quantify degree of success failure was going to cause a skew towards high quality success ; the actual rate of simple success/fail was not changed at all, however.

This was (according to the discussion) amplified by the combat system -the use of T/E caused more damage and quicker responses when successful , compared to less of both when not successful. In other words, faster shots caused more damage than slower shots as a general rule - and missed shots causued more delay than successful ones.

Now, as anyone who has read my stuff here knows, a stat argument is a Big Deal for me.....and usually pretty decisive. yet, this didn't cause me one bit of problem.

When I thought about why this may be, I realized that the issue for me was this: the history of skill resolution in RPG design seems to be based on the assumption that sucess is as likely (or less likely) than failue, and the key is to stack bonuses to gain the edge toward success. But, why is this ? My conclusion was that the T/E issue is a problem if, and only if, we believe that simple success/fail is symmetric, and that additionally, qualitative assessment of task resolution should be the same way- and that this assumption underlies LOTS of task systems.

I'm aware that simple success fail for traveller, and for many games insn't purely symmetric - the 8+ success roll ensures this - as does the fact that a 2d6 roll can't have a rollable midpoint ; yet the first level of advanced skill brings the roll to the other side . My point is not that success/fail has an exactly even distribution, but rather that tasks are perceived in a manner that suggest that either success and failure are about equally likely, or that failure is somewhat more likely than success. Why is this ?

Is a non-symmetric outcome inherently less realistic than a symmetric one ? Or is the natural symmetry of a bell curve driving and distorting the proccess ? Is it the basic boardgame balance issue that seems inherent in many RPG designs , or perhaps the semi-adversarial nature of the GM/Player relationship....?

Honestly, the more I think about it, the less it seems like a good way to model task resolution....I mean, why would I get out of bed in the morning if success essentially = failure or worse in everything I did ? Or that I had to be an expert to have a good chance of success -(or, for some games, to ignore a roll)

Thoughts?
 
Hi there,

I don't disagree, and you mirror our thoughts at the time. However, the issue (for us) was with the clunkiness of the mechanic during actual play, not the probabilities!
 
I found the T/E mechanic neither clunky nor badly flawed....

I did find the probabilities flawed, because high-effect results were more likely than low effect.

A switch to Roll-low success/fail with roll high=better for timing and effect solved the probabilities.

(Roll 6+DM's or less to succeed) do not add anything to timing/effect dice.

So Trvial is (12+Skill+StatMod) or less.
 
msprange said:
Hi there,

I don't disagree, and you mirror our thoughts at the time. However, the issue (for us) was with the clunkiness of the mechanic during actual play, not the probabilities!
Hmmmm. That was not what I would have thought. Interesting to hear, though. My experience was that it was pretty straigtforward as task resolution -and in combat, there was a bit of steepness to the initial learning curve, but it caught on very quickly. Would you mind elaborating ? Not for argument (I promise), just out of sheer interest in the design process....
 
AKAramis said:
I found the T/E mechanic neither clunky nor badly flawed....

I did find the probabilities flawed, because high-effect results were more likely than low effect.

A switch to Roll-low success/fail with roll high=better for timing and effect solved the probabilities.

Which gets to the question, why was that ?
 
captainjack23 said:
Would you mind elaborating ? Not for argument (I promise), just out of sheer interest in the design process....

In a nutshell, we believed that while it might have worked very well as a mechanic in a skirmish-based miniatures game (say), it was not fit for an RPG for one simple reason - we found people were actually focussing on a physical object (the dice!), rather than the game itself.

By making people flip the dice every turn, they were moving their attention away from story and onto the dice. This is no problem in a miniatures game, but something of an issue in an RPG, where mechanics should be 'invisible', letting people get on with the story line, rather than playing the system.
 
But that's only if you use the die as the marker.

It could be noted down on paper, or on dry wipe sheets as someone (I think it was Aramis) suggested at the time. It wasn't such a big ball-ache to keep track of in that combat example I posted way back, and in fact, the current system does require a similar amount of bookkeeping keeping track of where intiative is at next round for everyone.

Any chance of including it as an option in Mercenary? (tho I realise with everyone's wishlists it'd need be 6000 pages long). :)
 
captainjack23 said:
AKAramis said:
I found the T/E mechanic neither clunky nor badly flawed....

I did find the probabilities flawed, because high-effect results were more likely than low effect.

A switch to Roll-low success/fail with roll high=better for timing and effect solved the probabilities.

Which gets to the question, why was that ?

Keeping effect 1=marginal 6=awesome

Because, on an 8+ target, you have the following possible rolls:
2+6 . (6)[2]
3+5 . (5)[3]
4+4 . (4)[4]
5+3 . (5)[3]
6+2 . (6)[2]
3+6 . (6)[3]
4+5 . (5)[4]
5+4 . (5)[4]
6+3 . (6)[3]
4+6 . (6)[4]
5+5 . (5)[5]
6+4 . (6)[4]
5+6 . (6)[5]
6+5 . (6)[5]
6+6 . (6)[6]


on 6-
1+5 . (5)[1]
2+4 . (4)[2]
3+3 . (3)[3]
4+2 . (4)[2]
5+1 . (5)[1]
1+4 . (4)[1]
2+3 . (3)[2]
3+2 . (3)[2]
4+1 . (4)[1]
1+3 . (3)[1]
2+2 . (2)[2]
3+1 . (3)[1]
1+2 . (2)[1]
2+1 . (2)[1]
1+1 . (1)[1]

If you are shooting for good effect with no concert for time: 8+ gives 9x chances of 6, 5x 5's, and 1x 4. Shooting for 6- (but still with high die=good) gives 1x1, 3x2, 6x3, 4x4, 2x5, and 0x6...

Now, the need for rapid action produced the worst hiccups in the draft version's 8+ when looking at effects, providing a crit and no marginals:
2x2, 4x3, 5x4, 3x5, 1x6

versus a 6-:
9x1, 5x2, 1x3

Note that by using the S/F determinant for roll under while quality higher is better makes for a better distribution, mostly marginal, and nothing better than mediocre....

Note that when the rolls are adjusted to 7+ or 7-, the full range of results becomes possible. In essence, it makes shots where speed is a concern more sloppy rather than more accurate, and shots where the desired effect is accuracy take longer, instead of less, as was the effect under draft 3.... and requires no adding skill nor subtracting difficulty to/from the individual dice in order to reflect talent effects...
 
AKAramis said:
captainjack23 said:
AKAramis said:
I found the T/E mechanic neither clunky nor badly flawed....

I did find the probabilities flawed, because high-effect results were more likely than low effect.

A switch to Roll-low success/fail with roll high=better for timing and effect solved the probabilities.

Which gets to the question, why was that ?

Keeping effect 1=marginal 6=awesome

Because, on an 8+ target, you have the following possible rolls:<snip for brevity>
Note that when the rolls are adjusted to 7+ or 7-, the full range of results becomes possible. In essence, it makes shots where speed is a concern more sloppy rather than more accurate, and shots where the desired effect is accuracy take longer, instead of less, as was the effect under draft 3.... and requires no adding skill nor subtracting difficulty to/from the individual dice in order to reflect talent effects...


Ah, sorry, I see that my quote block misled the question. The probs and stats are fine, thanks for taking the time to do those. The question is, why is a skewed distribution a problem ? Or, to turn it around, why is a symmetric (if not equal) distribution of results seen as more desireable, or (not to put words in anyones mouths) seen as more realistic ?
 
msprange said:
captainjack23 said:
Would you mind elaborating ? Not for argument (I promise), just out of sheer interest in the design process....

In a nutshell, we believed that while it might have worked very well as a mechanic in a skirmish-based miniatures game (say), it was not fit for an RPG for one simple reason - we found people were actually focussing on a physical object (the dice!), rather than the game itself.

Okay, thanks.....that is an issue I never considered - and one of those that is, I suppose, more apparent across groups rather than within.
I see where it does kind of work against suspension of disbelief...
Interestingly, and not to argue at all, my group basically liked it -right down to the least gamer like of the lot....although, when I mentioned the above issue, they basically thought about it and agreed. Possibly our combats, when they happen are more mini like, and infrequent enough to not distract the story too much. It is an interesting issue, I have to say.

In retrospect, it seems very much like the old traveller combat issue - the LBB "piece of paper with lines" vs snapshot's minigame and deck plans -which I note was sold as a counter/minis game. Same logic perhaps ?

That said, was the same "frame breaking" (drama term for blowing the atmosphere) seen in the task T/E system ?
 
Klaus Kipling said:
But that's only if you use the die as the marker.

It could be noted down on paper, or on dry wipe sheets as someone (I think it was Aramis) suggested at the time. It wasn't such a big ball-ache to keep track of in that combat example I posted way back, and in fact, the current system does require a similar amount of bookkeeping keeping track of where intiative is at next round for everyone.

Any chance of including it as an option in Mercenary? (tho I realise with everyone's wishlists it'd need be 6000 pages long). :)

How 'bout "Mongoose Snapshot" ?
 
Essentially, Jack, the issue is that someone performing a task at the extreme limit of their ability (12+ natural roll needed) should not be obtaining critical success results with no chance of marginal results.

Likewise, unskilled persons should not be obtaining critical successes except on the absolutely easiest of tasks.

I don't mind asymmetry... I do mind it when it produces absurd results.
 
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