This means that human pilots are required for at least three reasons:
Cool, let’s have them.
1. Any technology made by humans is going to be flawed and break. This includes AI and automated systems. There is a series called Mayday on YouTube that documents airline aircraft disasters. The number of times an automated system fails is quite high, and many passengers would be dead if not for the skills of an experienced pilot.
Automated systems are already more reliable than humans in most industries and common autopilots are no exception.
Where humans shine is in the breakdown moments (which may not included the automated system but can be related to something else. Like landing gear failure).
2. Legal systems progress much more slowly than technology. Liability and not technology is why we do not have flying cars. 30-40 years from now we still will not have a legal and regulatory framework for flying cars let alone people jetting around on autopilot in near earth orbit.
Here I’m a little more sceptical.
30-40 years from now we will still be flying a lot of aircraft which are being built today. That’s just the operational life of them. But while the autopilots today are still relatively primitive, we absolutely use the heck out of them.
In some regions you may get a law passed quicker. (For example, for cars on the road the US has a specific ban on models whereas the UK has a specific allowance on models. Therefore it’s much easier to get your weird contraption on the road in the US.)
3. People trust people and not technology. Ask any airline passenger if they want to fly in a fully automated airplane (Which is possible today), and the answer is not only no, but hell no.
I don’t know if that’s a good benchmark. There’s lots of automation in many industries that you just don’t hear about because people don’t understand things. Like medtech. They may not even realise what an autopilot is capable of.
Also people still smoke in 2025 so I don’t see why we should trust any decision they make.
30-40 years is many generations of technological progress, but is less than one generation of human progress. If we are 'progressing' at all. There are people still living today that remember a time without TV, Cell Phones, Personal Computers, and the Internet. Many of them are still in charge. Let that sink in for a moment.
I think that’s a bit of a red herring. Even with the concept of increased longevity, in 40 years I’ll be in my 90s (which will put me firmly in the demographic for running the country). I think the Octogenarian Gen X rulers of the world will be very open to change.
It took 13 years for the Car to almost completely replace the horse in urban centres.
30-40 years from now, there will still be people in charge who remember a world without Space X, Blue Origin, Cell Phones, and the Internet.
There will still be pilots in space for at least another 100-200 years no matter how much technology progresses.
Even now, the majority of space travel is done through automation. There may still be pilots but the need for them to be onboard is reduced.
In 40 years, I think things will either go very good or very bad but I’m not in the mood to share my odds.