Interceptors calculation

[Sulfurdown]

Can someone check my math on this. As I understand it Interceptors will work as an autocharging Shield of 2(i=1),3(i=2-5) or 4(i=6-10) and then effectively a Dodge 6+, obviously muted by only being effective versus non-beam weapons?

(The first roll for Interceptor Dice loses an ave. of 1/6, 2nd roll losing 1/3 of the survivors, 3rd roll losing 1/2, 4th roll - 2/3, 5th roll and every one after losing 5/6th of the survivors. Once down to one d6 after the 5th roll it switches over to being one die rolled for each incoming shot and on a 6 it beats it, effectively a Dodge 6+. On average it seems to me that a Interceptor 1 is going to block 2 shots before defaulting to the Dodge 6+, while the Interceptor 10 is going to block about 4 shots before defaulting.)

 

[Da Boss]

Ahhhh Maths - runs and hides with his games

 

[Ripple]

Not sure exactly on the math you used, not my strong suit, but the summary is essentially correct. It's at the heart of the current issue with the changes to the abbai.

Most of their ships lost a block 2-3/Dodge 6+ roll vs unlimited numbers of attacks for limited crit immunity against a set number of attacks. When you then look at the recharge rates (generally one or two) they generally have lost out on the number of blocks made after the first attack. Up side is it affects beam and mini-beam.

So not sure your choice of it acts like Shields 2 is correct... it isn't worn down faster by heavier hitting weapons, it can roll up to larger numbers, (are shields lost on cripple like interceptors or just a chance of lost?). More like a decreasing dodge score. I mean you can drop three interceptor dice and block nothing...shields always block something.

Ripple

 

[Chernobyl]

I've tried a couple times to put together a calculation for intereceptors. Its not easy...

Chern

 

[Sulfurdown]

I ended up getting a 2-blocked from Interceptor 1 by evaluating the evolving percentage between the reroll and failure for the die. So my numbers may be slightly under as I called dice dead when they had a less then 50% survival chance and wasn't basing in on the absolute percentage chance at each roll. (Survival = 1st ~ 83%, 2nd ~ 56%, 3rd ~ 28%.)

I can't speak for the maneuverability and weapons ranging for ships like the Bimith, but in terms of their defensive scores; the Shield score is really only an addition to the Dmg/Crw scores with the no-crit advantage. It's the recharge rate that would provide a constant evaluation of defense. So the big-B goes from an I3, Dmg32 to an I1+Rchrg2, Dmg 34.
Under my average expectations I3 would be around a Rchrg 3 and I1 is a Rchrg 2. Ball park numbers
Arma B = Recharge 3, Dodge 6+, Dmg 32
2nd B = Recharge 4, Dodge 6+, Dmg 34

Does that make sense?

Arma Tiraca = Recharge 3, Dodge 6+, Dmg 15/Crw 20
2nd Tiraca = Recharge 1, Dmg 15/Crw 17

 

[sidewinder]

I always thought interceptors should block a shot for each die rolled, not one shot for the whole pool. Yeah, if you have a big war ship with 4 INT, you can block a lot of shots, but it has a lot of interceptors. I mean, one interceptor blocks one shot, it doesnt take 4 to block one shot, not in the show anyway.

 

[Ripple]

your damage and crew number seem a bit off from the Arm. side.

Bimith - from SFoS (no known changes in Arm.)
interceptors 3
damage 40/8
crew 52/9

Bimith 2ed -
intercptor 1
damage 30/6
crew 45/9
shield 10 (recharge 2)
net is slight advantage in raw numbers over two turns, but weaker over three, depending in part on the weapons being used against it.

Tiraca - from SFoS (no known changes in Arm.)
interceptors 2
damage 19/4
crew 25/5

Tiraca 2 ed -
damage 13/3
crew 16/4
shield 5 (recharge 1)
in two turns it breaks even against the 1st ed assuming the interceptors don't count. Changing the layout of the quad arrays didn't do much but the anti-fighter did help as it can't be hounded from behind by any fighter in the game now.

In both cases above you can see where the 2 to 3 blocks plus 6+ dodge part of interceptors can be a big deal vs the set value of the shield.

Ripple

 

[Burger]

Whilst the calculations for interceptors are hideously complicated, you can't compare them to Shields. Interceptors block hits from double, triple or quad damage just as easily as single damage, whereas shields go down by 2, 3 or 4 respectively. Once they are depleted they are the same as dodge 6+, yes.

 

[Voronesh]

Yer interceptors have hideous maths.

But comparing them against Shields should get ugly. Kalivas need to reason not to fire on an abbai ship. TD means quick shield depletion. An EA Olympus OTOH can shrug off a Kalivas TD attack, if it was the initial barrage.

Actually TD weaponry and such are better used against shields first, because single damage weaponry normally generate a larger amount of crit effects. So TD guns bring down the shield as quickly as possible, and afterwards you get little attacks for crit fishing, unless your hoping for TD on an explosion crit or somesuch ^^.

 

[Triggy]

Whilst the calculations for interceptors are hideously complicated, you can't compare them to Shields. Interceptors block hits from double, triple or quad damage just as easily as single damage, whereas shields go down by 2, 3 or 4 respectively. Once they are depleted they are the same as dodge 6+, yes.

Indeed, but that single point of Shield is even better!

They both work in radically different ways though as you've pointed out and sometimes one will be better, and sometimes the other.

 

[Locutus9956]

Its not really fair to compare the two directly like that though. Interceptors may have the CHANCE to stop more hits than low level shielding but theres still the chance of them failing to stop more than one, or for that matter ANY hits. I know its happened to me on more than one occasion! And the ability to block beam shots absolutely should not be underestimated in value! Ive lost track of the number of Chronos Frigates (in 1st edition) that I lost to beam volleys that blew right past their interceptors and cored them out!

 

[Burger]

Chance for each interceptor to fail to block at target number of T:
(T-1) / 6
Chance for N interceptors to fail to block at target number of T:
(T-1) / 6 ^ N
Chance for N interceptors to block a hit at target number T:
1- (T-1) / 6 ^ N


T always starts at 2. N=1:

Chance to block first hit is 1-(1/6) = 0.8333
N goes down to 5/6.
Chance to block second hit is 1-(2/6)^(5/6) = 0.5997
N goes down to 25/36.
Chance to block third hit is 1-(3/6)^(25/36) = 0.3821
N goes down to 125/216.
Chance to block fourth hit is 1-(4/6)^(125/216) = 0.2091
Chance to block 5th and subsequent hits is 1/6 = 0.1667

 

[Sulfurdown]

The numbers I used for damage and crew were truncated by the Crippled/Skel values since that has a dramatic effect on a ship's performance.

I tried to run the numbers on all of the Abbai fleet and ran into a few things (some already stated). The first thing was indeed the Beam defense that is different between the two, but also the basic beam rules changes between 1E/A and 2E make comparison very difficult and I eventually tried to settle on an AP Beam to split the difference. As for comparing them to Interceptors, well they tend to serve the same purpose even if the Interceptors are more random (and 'recharge' faster with the clean slate on the next turn). I'd like to hear if some people have tried Shields blocking single hits regardless of damage multipliers.

I'm thinking the biggest critique of the new Abbai in their defenses is the shift from 1/45, 2/45 ships to 1/45L and 2/45. The big ships, while having those beam defenses are so slow that they won't even have the Shadow's ability to run and hide for a little bit to recharge. It's too bad that S/A like CBD&ADG! don't double the recharge rate of Shields. (Might end up being a house rule.)

 

[Burger]

It's too bad that S/A like CBD&ADG! don't double the recharge rate of Shields. (Might end up being a house rule.)

That's probably more suited to Intensify Defensive Fire!

 

[Sulfurdown]

Between the two the ADG! seemed to speak more to me then the IDF!. IDF! is effecting 'weapons' fire more then a passive defense system. But either one would suit.

EDIT: I wish I had either taken more statistics or that the few I did take were more worthwhile.

 

[Ripple]

I agree they are complicated to compare right now.

You hit the nail on the head with the slow movement of abbai ships preventing them from getting the most out of shields. I did have a Bimith actually manage to regen three times in one fight, but only because my opponent realized that it wasn't a threat and he needed to destroy the Tiraca'a and Milani's before the beams did any more damage.

Beam mechanic that you are using seems light to me. Most beams previously were SAP, and that took a big hit vs hull 4, but otherwise was almost a bonus. Losing CAF/Redirect did mean a big reduction in initial hits for fleets that could use them however...big enough I might even go to just beam. Or perhaps work out the effect on both ships seperately and compare each hull under both sets of rules, using current and old stats. Lot of work there though for a hobby.

And finally, your right about speed also being the dominant factor in Abbai having some issue now with the lumbering. For many ships that will mean virtually no shots if you opponent feels like doing a little measuring tape work prior to moving. Compared to last ed. it cuts total movement by as much as half, and makes oblgue attacks nine inches to the side almost impossible to respond to.

Ripple

 

[Hugbiel]

I have calculated this some time ago:

Int reduce the number of hit by 0.16 when depleted. Also non used int
block on the 6 fist attack an average of ( int value / hit blocked ) ( note for depleted ones it may be seen as 0/1 )
1/2.31, 2/2.89, 3/3.20, 4/3.4, 5/3.55; 6/3.67, 7/3.76, 8/3.84, 9/3.91, 10/3.96, 11/4.02, 12/4.06, 2500/6

chance for a dice to be active on the i° roll :
P(i)=> P(1)=5/6 ; P(2)= 5/6 * 4/6 = 5/9; P(3)=5/18 ; P(4) = 5/54; P(4+n)=5/54 * 1/(6^n)

Chance to have n dice active after i roll with d dice:
Pn(i)=P(i)^n * ( 1-P(i) )^(d-n) * d!/(n!(d-n)!)

Chance to have at least on dice active after i roll for d dice : 1-(1-P(i))^d