2300AD population numbers wrong?

[René]

Maybe I'm wrong myself, but if I compare the population numbers of UPP with the ones in UCP, they don't always match.
A breakdown world by world:

American Arm
- King 4 Mio vs. 300.000 + 200.000
- Hermes 3 Mio vs. 6 Mio
- Ellis O.K.
- Botany Bay 7 Mio vs. 1 Mio
- Kingsland O.K.

Chinese Arm
- Cold Mountain 1 Mio vs. 10 Mio
- Daikoku 10 Mio vs. 10 Mio + 4 Mio
- Syulahm 2 Mio vs. 1 Mio + 700.00: seems O.K.
- Heidelsheimat 7 Mio vs. 40 (!) Mio + 3 Mio + 1 Mio
- Chengdu O.K.
- Kanata O.K.
- Kwantung 4 Mio vs. 20 Mio + 3 Mio
- Dukou O.K.
- Montana 4 Mio vs. 3 Mio
- Austin's World 3 Mio vs. 400.000 + 1 Mio + 40.000
- Paulo 400.00 vs. 1 Mio

French Arm
- Nibelungen 80 Mio O.K., but compare the number to Atlas of the French Arm 1st ed.: 29 Mio (80 Mio would be equal to the complete American AND Chinese Arm)
- Beowulf 30 Mio vs. 30 Mio + 10 Mio
- Kimanjano O.K.
- Kieyuma 4 Mio vs. 1 Mio
- Beta Coma 50 Mio vs. 2 Mio + 1 Mio + 1 Mio
- Joi 9 Mio vs. 3 Mio + 4 Mio + 3 Mio + 3 Mio + 400.000
- Crater O.K.
- Adlerhorst O.K.
- Nous Voila O.K.
- Dunkelheim O.K.
- Hochbaden O.K.
- Aurore 30 Mio vs. 4 Mio + 4 Mio + 2 Mio

I'm sure that I have some typos above, so don't be shy to correct me; especially do so, if I got the whole system somewhat wrong.

 

[Bryn the 2300AD guy]

Is this the 2nd Mongoose edition?

Certainly, the population numbers were wrong in the 1st Mongoose edition, and they were in 2320AD. The 2012 Mongoose edition was a reskin of 2320AD, and the populations for 2320 were projected back. Remember, in the 1st Mongoose edition, the population of European France was 60,000.

The populations in the original source material (GDW) were:

French Arm

1. Nibelungen: 85 million (an error cause by Loren Wiseman having people be immortal and breed forever. Given the nature of the world, 8.5 million is more reasonable)
2. Beowulf: ca. 40 million (the British colony population was given as the 2295 census. In both cases the colonies were older than 100 years, and the population growth table only went to 100 years, and so the writer simple used the 100 year line)
3. Kimanjano: 7.045 million (ca. 90% French) - note that the atmospheric composition in the source material is impossible, and the atmosphere would spontaneously ignite.
4. Kie Yuma: no canon figure, but it's a single domed settlement with a low population. Also note, no planets can actually exist in the system.
5. Beta Comae Bernices (Nous Voila): 12 million, which is unlikely considering it's a glacier world with no liquid water.
6. BCV-4: 45.474 million
7. Joi: 9.751 million, noting that the Elysian figure is overstated (it being the pre-revolution figure, with a decreasing population since), and the low population of the British colony being contradicted elsewhere (see: http://www.users.globalnet.co.uk/~dheb/2300/Articles/UK2300.htm )
8. Crater: 1.557 million in the 2295 census
9. Adlerhorst: 7.333 million
10. Dunkelheim: 1.493 million
11. Hochbaden: 4.127 million
12. Aurore: 10.307 before the invasion. Significantly less in 2300.

Chinese Arm

1. Cold Mountain: 9.6 million (unbelievable given the conditions)
2. Daikoku: 14 million
3. Syuhlahm: no canon figure, but about 2 million by the growth tables
4. Heidel's Heimat: no canon figure, but about 2.5 million ditto
5. Chenghu: 5.5 million
6. Doris: a few thousand (300 family groups)
7. Kwangtung: no canon figure, but about 2 million as above
8. Dukou: 217,000
9. Montana: 1.65 million
10. Austin's World: 1.69 million (1.3 million Texans, 350,000 Life Foundation and 40,000 Incans)
11. Paulo: 350,000

American Arm

1. King: 4.5 million (unbelievably high for a world that should actually be a gas giant)
2. Hermes: 2 million (unbelievably high for such a lethal world, the equator is colder than the antarctic, and there is no liquid water)
3. Ellis: 3.5 million (note, the world should be tide-locked)
4. Botany Bay: no canon figure but probably around 100,000
5. Kingsland: a conflict with writeup saying "just over a million," but in 2280 the population was 11,250, and some time between then a now, Australia started exporting 10,000 people a year to the colony. I suspect an extra zero was added and the population is on the order of just over 100,000

 

[René]

Thanks for this interesting facts! "having people be immortal and breed forever" - who would've imagined...
Will there be an official Mongoose errata sheet, which adresses these issues? The data seems often fundamentally wrong.
Additionally boxed set, book 1, p.100: Earth 7 billions, Tirane 1 billion; these are 90% of all humans. So, in the colonies should live almost 900 million people - it's more to 250 million (better indeed to save the frontier feeling).

 

[Bryn the 2300AD guy]

Earth by the article "Earth:2300" has a population of 5.38 billion and there are 120 nations. However, the Earth/Cybertech sourcebook's nations sum to more than this. In some cases, an extra zero was added to the population (Manchuria and Central Asia). With those two corrections, the populations are:

North America: 376.685 million
South America: 695.725 million
Australia: 22.68 million (what about NZ, Tasmania and Queensland?)
Japan: 186.312 million (includes Japanese "empire" in the Pacific)
Europe: 708.3918 million (includes Russia and Ukraine, no stats for eastern Europe or Italy, so not included)
Asia, excluding India: 1,363.1549 million
Middle East: 134.175 (exc. Turkey)
Africa: 1,849.965 million

= 5,337.0887 million (close to 5.38 billion)

The population of the Indian states, eastern Europe, Turkey, and a few minor nations are missing. I think GDW tried to be consistent, but missed that they'd not included India etc.

The Tirane article was written by Loren Wiseman, and is inconsistent with all the previous writings on Tirane, getting the planet wrong (it's the 4th planet in the AC-A system, not the 1st) and even the identities of the colonies wrong. This was later retconned in the 2nd edition and EC/S to remove the two extra colonies (America and Australia) and restore the Argentine colony. The American colony failed, and the Australian colony within Japanese territory was absorbed into the Japanese colony whilst retaining mining rights.

The colonies were completely out-of-whack with the others. A common solution is to knock a zero off all colony populations.

 

[René]

"The Tirane article was written by Loren Wiseman, and is inconsistent with all the previous writings on Tirane, getting the planet wrong (it's the 4th planet in the AC-A system, not the 1st) and even the identities of the colonies wrong. This was later retconned in the 2nd edition and EC/S to remove the two extra colonies (America and Australia) and restore the Argentine colony. The American colony failed, and the Australian colony within Japanese territory was absorbed into the Japanese colony whilst retaining mining rights."

Seems content proofreading wasn't that big a priority...

When I first read the new edition boxed set, I thought, too, that the Tirane-numbers are way too high:

There is no real need to emigrate from Earth in such numbers:
- there are no devastating wars to France, Britain etc., which would cause people to search for another home
- famine etc. poses no risk for the people of these countries
- they are according to the summary material in the actual edition allround welfare states with no religious or political oppression mentioned
- emigration is expensive and has a lot of social costs (away from family, friends etc.)
The people who emigrate are far fewer I think, and when on Tirane they probably do not get so many children, since they are from developed nations and are supported by their parent nations.

So, your suggestion to delete the last zero is in my opinion realistic: not 1 billion, but 100 million.

I hope this issue will be adressed in the coming books (along with the inconstistencies mentioned in the 1st post).

 

[Bryn the 2300AD guy]

Tirane was the first planet discovered that could support Human life. It is, however, perhaps not a good planet as described. The habitable band(s) of the planet move on a 79 year cycle (by the E/CS writeup), and so the population is itinerant, staying in place for 20 years before largely moving.

The map of Tirane was not based on any primary canon, but rather on Dan Schirran's fanon map from the mid-90's which we modified in the early 00's. Whilst it was properly attributed in 2320, this was lost in the Mongoose editions. I argued that seven continents = the seven colonies listed in the core rulebook, and were:

1. French continent (Simply France - it is legally incorporated into the metropole)
2. British continent (Wellon in the core book, New Albion in the E/CS)
3. German continent (Garten in the core book, Freihafen in the E/CS)
4. Azanian continent
5. Argentinian continent
6. Brazilian continent
7. Japanese continent

Whilst Brazil was the last to claim a colony in 2184, the Vaca write-up in SotFA says it was nearly three decades before they really started taking advantage of the claim. This would fit with an Argentine semi-blockade until the 1st Rio Plata War, which ended with Brazilian victory and included a Brazilian squadron attacking the Argentine AC squadron and beating it. With this done, Brazil started really colonising their continent in the 2210's. If we assume a medium effort colony (in the GDW books), about 10.2 million (10% of the E/CS value) is about correct.

If we do a heavy effort colony (100,000 colonist in year 0, 25,000 per year for 30 years, growth 4% for 50 years, 2% thereafter*) then the ESA colonies would be about 19.5 million colonists each. Knocking off a zero to give the French continent 23.9 million, Wellon 21.2 million and Garten 19.4 million is reasonable.

For the Azanian colony, a medium effort (50,000 initial, 10,000 per year) starting in the 2190's would give 6.84 million. Perhaps Azania got claim to a continent through ESA, but lacked the resources for active settlement. Azania made several attempts to settle colonies, but many failed and the populations were absorbed into other colonies on that world.

For Japan, 11.9 million is a little over a medium effort, but maybe they absorbed some Australians.

Finally, assuming the Argentine colony is actually the one listed as Australian, 9.8 million is approximately a medium effort starting around the right time.

For context, the American colony of Ellis appears to be a medium effort, and Hermes a light effort. King looks like something less than a light effort.

To get a billion people on Tirane, each of the colonising powers has to be doing multiple heavy colonisation efforts, which flies in the face of the effort expended elsewhere.


* The 2% after 50 years is only listed for medium effort, but represents the fact that the initial colony is full of young, breeding age colonists rather than a full spectrum of ranges, and makes sense.